中共二十大10月16日召开，习近平迈向第三个任期China Sets Key Communist Party Congress for Mid-October储百亮2022年8月31日 2017年，十九大上的习近平。 ANDY WONG/ASSOCIATED PRESSA Communist Party congress that is poised to anoint Xi Jinping as China’s top leader for another five years will open in Beijing on Oct. 16, officials announced on Tuesday. 中国官方周二宣布，中共第二十次全国代表大会将于10月16日在北京召开。这次会议将让习近平在中国最高领导人的位置上再坐五年。 The starting date of the party’s 20th congress — a pivotal event in China’s political life cycle — was revealed after the Politburo, a council of 25 senior officials, settled on plans for the event. Such congresses are choreographed rituals held every five years, bringing together about 2,300 delegates who rarely, if ever, dissent. This one will reveal China’s broad policy direction and its next leadership lineup at a time of slowing growth at home and deepening strains abroad, especially with the United States. 中国政治生命周期中这个重大事件开始的日期是在中共中央政治局的25名高级官员确定了有关计划后公布的。中共全国代表大会是每五年举行一次的精心编排的仪式，让约2300名代表聚集在一起，他们很少表达不同意见（如果有的话）。这次会议将在国内经济增长放缓、与外国（尤其是美国）的关系不断紧张之际揭示中国的总体政策方向和下一个领导班子的阵容。 The brief official summary from the Politburo meeting gave few details about the congress, and did not say how long it would convene, though about a week is usual. The congress, the summary said, would gather at a “crucial moment” in Mr. Xi’s plans to turn China into an prosperous, advanced global power under one-party rule, and would “formulate a program of action” for that goal. 中共中央政治局会议发表的简短官方决定中基本上没有关于二十大的细节，也没有说明会议开多久，但通常的会期是一周左右。决定称，二十大召开的时间是一个“关键时刻”，会议将为习近平带领一党专政的中国走向繁荣先进的全球强国计划“制定行动纲领”。 While there is no official certainty that the meeting will extend Mr. Xi’s era in office, his accumulation of powers and the party’s intense promotion of his record suggest that he is highly likely to win a third five-year term as party general secretary, prolonging a tenure that began in 2012. Previously, top Chinese leaders appeared to have been settling into a pattern of 10 years in power. But party officials have depicted Mr. Xi as the visionary leader that China needs to secure its rise, in an increasingly perilous world, well into the future. 虽然官方并没有对二十大是否将延长习近平任期作出明确表示，但他积累的权力以及中共对他业绩的大力宣扬都暗示，他有很大可能赢得作为中共中央总书记的第三个五年任期，习近平的总书记任期始于2012年。他之前的中国最高领导人似乎已确定了一个掌权十年的模式。但中共官员们将习近平描绘为有远见的领导人，是中国在一个越来越危险的世界中确保崛起、走向遥远未来所必需的。 “Western countries led by the United States don’t want to see the emergence of a powerful China,” Qu Qingshan, a senior ideology official for the party, wrote in an essay about Mr. Xi’s role in China’s future in July. “The struggle between the two social systems and two ideologies will be long-lasting, complicated, arduous and severe.” “以美国为首的西方国家不愿意看到一个强大中国的出现，”中共高级意识形态官员曲青山在一篇关于习近平在中国未来地位的文章中写道。“两种社会制度、两种意识形态的斗争也将是长期的、复杂的、艰巨的、严峻的。” There is no formal limit to how long a party general secretary can stay in office. In 2018, Mr. Xi engineered the abolition of a term limit on the state presidency — another of his major posts — clearing the way for him to stay for a third term, and maybe longer, as the concurrent head of the party, state and military. 党总书记的任期没有正式的限制。2018 年，习近平策划取消了国家主席的任期限制（那是他的另一个重要职务），为自己的第三个任期甚至更长时间的党政军最高领导人扫清了道路。 Mr. Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, stepped down from all those top posts after one decade. The leader before Mr. Hu, Jiang Zemin, was general secretary for 13 years, and then stayed on solely as chairman of the Chinese military for a further 22 months. 习近平的前任胡锦涛在执政十年后辞去了所有这些职务。胡锦涛之前的领导人江泽民担任了13年的总书记，离任总书记和国家主席后，在中央军委主席的职位上留任了22个月。 “Xi has spent his current term laying the groundwork for a major win at the 20th Party Congress,” Christopher K. Johnson, a senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis, wrote in a recent assessment. “Xi’s third-term gambit leaves him in a much stronger position to dictate outcomes than his two immediate predecessors.” “习近平已把他当前的任期用来为在二十大上取得重大胜利奠定基础，”亚洲协会中国分析中心高级研究员张克斯(Christopher K. Johnson)在最近的分析中写道。“与他的两位前任相比，习近平为第三个任期的布局让他在决定结果方面处于更有利的地位。” 去年，中国美术馆一副习近平的画像。 GILLES SABRIÉ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESEven if Mr. Xi, 69, is assured of another term, he faces a big test of his ambitions at the congress: To what extent will he try to fill the next leadership lineup with his favored officials? Above all, there is the question of whether Mr. Xi will signal a preferred successor or delay that decision until later. 习近平现年69岁，即使他有把握连任，他的野心也将在二十大上面临严峻考验：他将在多大程度上把自己的人马安排进下一个领导层阵容？人们最关心的问题是，习近平是否会在二十大上释放信号表示谁是他青睐的继任者，还是将这个决定推迟到以后再做。 So far, no political heir has emerged, and many experts think that Mr. Xi will hold off from confirming one at this congress, so that he can preserve his influence for years to come. 到目前为止，接班人还没有出现。许多专家认为，习近平将推迟在本届大会上确认接班人，这让他能在未来几年保持自己的影响力。 If the party’s informal age rules are followed — under which senior officials, apart from Mr. Xi, are expected to step down at a congress if they are 68 or older — then two of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s topmost council, will probably retire. (The number of Standing Committee members may also grow or shrink.) About half of the 25 members of the Politburo, the second-highest tier of power, are also likely to exit, including those leaving the Standing Committee. 如果按照中共不成文的年龄规定，除习近平外，其他高级官员如果年满68岁或以上，将在二十大召开后退下来，这意味着中共最高权力机构政治局常委会的七名成员中有两名可能会退休（政治局常委的人数也有可能增加或减少）。政治局的25名成员中有约一半（包括那两名要退的政治局常委）可能也会离任。 The year leading up to the congress has been rocky for China, in spite of Mr. Xi’s calls for stability. The turbulence has inspired speculation that he has been weakened, which could leave his draconian policies vulnerable to challenge from rivals. 尽管习近平要求保持稳定，但二十大召开前的这一年对中国来说颇为艰难。不稳定的局面引发了人们对习近平已经遭到削弱的猜测，这可能会使他的严厉政策易受竞争对手的挑战。 Mr. Xi has insisted that China must stick to its “zero Covid” policy to minimize coronavirus deaths and protect the economy, but shutdowns of cities hit by outbreaks have dragged growth down and frustrated residents. China appears unlikely to reach the goal of 5.5 percent economic growth for 2022 that leaders laid down earlier this year, and unemployment among urban residents aged 16 to 24 rose to 20 percent in July. 习近平坚持认为，中国必须坚持“清零”政策，以最大限度地减少新冠病毒死亡人数并保护经济，但多个城市因疫情采取的封控措施已拖累了经济增长，并让居民们感到不满。中国似乎不太可能实现领导人今年早些时候制定的2022年经济增长5.5%的目标，今年7月，16至24岁城镇居民的失业率已上升到了20%。 Mr. Xi has also stood firmly by Russia, despite President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Some Chinese analysts have suggested that Mr. Xi leaned too close to Mr. Putin by offering a friendship with “no limits” that needlessly antagonized Washington and its European allies. 习近平还表示要坚定支持俄罗斯，尽管普京总统发动了入侵乌克兰的战争。一些分析中国的人士认为，习近平与普京过于亲近，他宣布中俄友谊“没有止境”，不必要地激怒了美国及其欧洲盟友。 The current premier, Li Keqiang, has sometimes struck a milder, more pragmatic tone than Mr. Xi. During a visit this month to Shenzhen, a commercial city long at the forefront of China’s market reforms, Mr. Li told a crowd of residents that “reform and opening must forge forward.” 现任总理李克强有时会使用比习近平更温和、更务实的语言。在本月视察长期处于中国市场改革前沿的商业城市深圳时，李克强对一群民众表示，“改革开放一定坚定前行。” But despite their differences, Mr. Li appears to have little power to challenge Mr. Xi’s policies, like “zero Covid.” Mr. Li must soon step down as premier under constitutional rules, and Mr. Xi’s big reservoir of power appears likely to insulate him from serious setbacks at the congress. 尽管两人有所不同，但李克强似乎没有挑战习近平政策的权力，比如“清零”。按照宪法的规定，李克强不久将卸任总理职务，而习近平拥有的巨大权力看来很可能会让他在二十大上不会遭遇严重的挫折。 Last year, the party issued a resolution on its century in existence that was mostly a paean to Mr. Xi. He also controls the military and the domestic security apparatus; both are crucial anchors of power, and they have become increasingly dominated by officials promoted by Mr. Xi. 去年，中共在建党百年之际出台了一份主要是为习近平唱赞歌的历史决议。他还控制着军队和国家安全机器；两者都是重要的权力支柱，而且越来越多地由习近平提拔上来的官员主导。 3月，封锁下的防疫人员，摄于上海 QILAI SHEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES“I think Xi has more or less weathered the storm. State media is clearly preparing the ground for his third term,” said Trey McArver, a political analyst with Trivium China, a company that monitors Chinese policymaking. “我认为习近平已或多或少地经受住了这场风暴。官媒明显在为他的第三个任期做准备，”跟踪中国政策制定的策纬咨询公司政治分析师罗杰(Trey McArver)说。 Even so, Mr. McArver said, Mr. Xi is likely to reach beyond his own longstanding underlings and also promote officials who have demonstrated their loyalty and worth. “Part of his success over the past decade has been his ability to win support and bring people along,” Mr. McArver said. 罗杰说，即便如此， 除了自己的老下属之外，习近平可能会提拔那些表现出忠诚和有提拔价值的官员。“他过去十年的成功部分得益于他赢得支持、拉拢人的能力，”罗杰说。 To judge from Mr. Xi’s recent speeches and comments, his keynote report to the party congress is likely to emphasize that China must put greater emphasis on national security and reduce inequality in the name of “common prosperity.” 从习近平最近发表的讲话和言论来看，他将在二十大上做的主旨报告很可能会强调中国必须更加重视国家安全，以“共同富裕”的名义减少不平等。 “Chinese-style modernization is modernization through common prosperity of the entire people,” Mr. Xi said in a recent visit to Liaoning, a province in northeast China that has struggled with industrial decline and a fast-aging population. “中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的现代化，”习近平最近在辽宁视察时说。这个东北省份一直在艰难地应对工业衰退、人口快速老龄化的问题。 The full shape of China’s next leadership will not become clear until March, when the National People’s Congress — an annual legislative gathering separate from the party’s congress — is likely to be held. There, rubber-stamp legislators will vote in the new premier and other senior government officials, including a foreign minister and a team of senior economic policymakers. Mr. Xi is also likely to receive a new term as state president at that session. 中国下一届领导班子的全部阵容要等到明年3月才会明朗，与中共全国代表大会不同的年度立法会议——全国人民代表大会很可能在那时召开。橡皮图章立法者们将在全国人大会上对新总理，以及包括外交部长和高级经济政策团队在内的政府其他高级官员进行投票表决。习近平也可能在明年的全国人大上重新获得一个国家主席任期。 Some analysts have speculated that Mr. Xi may put a loyalist provincial official into the premier’s job, succeeding Mr. Li. But precedent suggests that the next premier may be Hu Chunhua, a 59-year-old vice premier, or Wang Yang, 67, who is head of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory council. Neither Mr. Hu nor Mr. Wang was especially close to Mr. Xi before joining the central leadership, but both have cast themselves as loyal lieutenants with experience running central administration. 一些分析人士猜测，习近平可能会让一名忠诚的省级官员接替李克强出任总理。但先例暗示，下一任总理可能是现年59岁的副总理胡春华或现年67岁的中国人民政治协商会议主席汪洋。在进入中央领导层前，胡春华和汪洋与习近平的关系都不是特别密切，但两人都已把自己塑造成了有管理中央政府经验的忠诚副手。 “Only Wang and Hu have the requisite résumé,” said Mr. McArver, the analyst, “and Wang is clearly the more senior of the two, so we think Wang’s chances are much better.” “只有汪洋和胡春华有必需的履历，”分析师罗杰说，“而且汪洋显然是两人中资历更高的那位，所以我们认为汪洋（出任总理）的概率要大得多。” 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@ChuBailiang。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道一场以习近平为主角的接班人大戏2022年2月14日 习近平为何坚持要求“新冠动态清零”2022年5月1日 中共第三个“历史决议”有何深意2021年11月8日 中共提“共同富裕”，缩小贫富差距2021年9月7日 最受欢迎习近平的芯片强国理想为何在现实中碰壁 “暴风中心”：被卷入大国芯片之争的台湾 唐山打人事件后续：28人被提起公诉 芬兰总理派对风波：我们期待怎样的国家领导人？ 猴痘病毒如何颠覆了科学家的认知 一段70年的城市发展史：香港大型锯木厂志记将关闭 从中俄两国的贸易顺差看独裁统治的麻烦 一场以习近平为主角的中国领导人接班大戏 研究称美人鱼原型儒艮在中国功能性灭绝 高温干旱导致水电短缺，中国加大燃煤发电 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.