鸿儒私塾观察 ESSAYThe Dangers of China’s Decline

Skip to main content SIGN IN SUBSCRIBE SHARE: ESSAYThe Dangers of China’s DeclineAs China’s economic miracle fades, its leaders may become more inclined to take risks.APRIL 14, 2022, 3:00 PM DEENA SO’OTEH ILLUSTRATION FOR FOREIGN POLICY By Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger distinguished professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. Decline is a tricky concept. The term makes us think of a country that is falling like a rock—one whose power and capabilities are dropping across the board. But a country can be in relative decline vis-à-vis a fast-growing adversary even if its own power is still increasing. It can be surging forward in some areas, such as military might, even as its underlying economic strength starts to wither. And decline doesn’t always lead a country to scale back its objectives—the sense of urgency it creates can cause ambitious powers to grab what they can before the clock runs out. THE CHINA ISSUE: This article appears in the Spring 2022 print magazine. Read more stories from the issue, and subscribe to support our journalism. Xi Jinping’s China is about to give the world an education in the nuances of decline. Since the onset of its economic reforms in the 1970s, China has long defied predictions that it would soon stumble or collapse. Its spectacular growth challenged prevailing views about the sources of national success in the modern world. In some ways, China is still soaring: Its military power grows more formidable every year. When Xi declares that “the East is rising and the West is declining,” he gives voice to this sense that China is a country on the make. MORE FROM FOREIGN POLICYXi and Putin in MoscowWhy Xi Is Trapped in Ukraine Russian President Vladimir Putin stands in front of Russian and U.S. flags at a G-20 summit in 2019 amid rising nationalism in both countries.Elites Are Getting Nationalism All Wrong U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and combatant commanders at the White House in Washington on April 20.Biden’s Dangerous New Ukraine Endgame: No Endgame Russia's navy ships take part in a military exercise called Kavkaz (the Caucasus) 2016 at the coast of the Black Sea in Crimea on September 9, 2016.Welcome to the Black Sea Era of War trendingFauci: China’s COVID-19 Situation a ‘Disaster’Q&A | RAVI AGRAWAL Russian Troops Are Taking Putin’s Orders to Demilitarize Ukraine LiterallyREPORT | JACK DETSCH, ROBBIE GRAMER Belarus Is the Other Loser in Putin’s WarREPORT | AMY MACKINNON Biden Is Setting Himself Up for Embarrassment in Los AngelesARGUMENT | CHRISTOPHER SABATINI The West vs. the RestANALYSIS | ANGELA STENT latest Yes, the United States Should Weaken RussiaMAY 4, 2022, 4:56 PM Bolsonaro Is Already Undermining Brazil’s Upcoming ElectionMAY 4, 2022, 3:07 PM Belarus Is the Other Loser in Putin’s WarMAY 4, 2022, 2:43 PM Biden Is Setting Himself Up for Embarrassment in Los AngelesMAY 4, 2022, 1:37 PM Russian Troops Are Taking Putin’s Orders to Demilitarize Ukraine LiterallyMAY 4, 2022, 12:49 PM SEE ALL STORIES Sign up for Morning Brief Foreign Policy’s flagship daily newsletter with what’s coming up around the world today from Foreign Policy’s newsletter writer Colm Quinn. SIGN UP By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. FP EVENTS FP STUDIOS FP ANALYTICS FP PEACEGAMES SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES GROUP SUBSCRIPTIONS REPRINT PERMISSIONS WRITER’S GUIDELINES FP GUIDES – GRADUATE EDUCATION FP FOR EDUCATION FP ARCHIVE BUY BACK ISSUES WORK AT FP MEET THE STAFF ADVERTISING/PARTNERSHIPS CONTACT US PRIVACY POLICY POWERED BY WORDPRESS VIP © 2022, THE SLATE GROUP