清零给中国经济带来沉重代价：高失业率、增长远低于预期China Protests Over ‘Zero Covid’ Follow Months of Economic PainDAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, OLIVIA WANG, JOY DONG2022年11月30日 周日，在抗议者前一天晚上聚集的上海一个地区，警力非常密集。 THE NEW YORK TIMESThe toll of China’s unwavering approach to fighting Covid has rippled through the world’s second-largest economy for months: Youth unemployment reached a record 20 percent, corporate profits sagged, and economic growth fell well below Beijing’s own projections. 几个月来，中国毫不动摇的新冠防疫方法所造成的代价已对世界第二大经济体产生广泛影响：青年失业率达到创纪录的20%，企业利润下滑，经济增长远低于北京自己的预测。 The economic pain has intensified the pressure to ease pandemic restrictions to salvage the flagging economy and restore some semblance of normal life. Frustration with the government’s zero-tolerance Covid strategy, which has failed to prevent a big jump in cases, escalated over the weekend as a population tired of unpredictable lockdowns, extended quarantines and mass testing erupted into protests. Smaller, scattered demonstrations continued on Monday. 经济痛苦加大了放松疫情限制以挽救萎靡不振的经济，并在一定程度上恢复正常生活的压力。人们对政府的“清零”策略感到失望，该策略未能阻止病例的大幅增加，上周末，对无法预测的封锁、延长的隔离和大规模检测感到厌倦的民众发起了抗议。周一，规模较小、分散的示威活动仍在继续。 The current Covid outbreak, the most widespread since the start of the pandemic in 2020, has painted Xi Jinping, China’s president, into a corner. He has refused to budge on the government’s strict Covid approach. If he loosens restrictions and infections skyrocket, there is the risk of mass casualties and an overwhelmed health care system. But keeping the current policies in place and limiting infections with widespread lockdowns would inflict further damage to an already slowing economy. 目前的新冠暴发是自2020年大流行开始以来最广泛的一次，这使中国国家主席习近平陷入困境。他一直拒绝在政府严格的“清零”措施方面让步。如果他放松限制，感染率急剧上升，就有可能出现大规模死亡和医疗系统不堪重负的情况。但保持目前的政策，以广泛的封锁来限制感染，将对已经放缓的经济造成进一步的损害。 周一，上海的新冠病毒检测。 ALY SONG/REUTERS“The government has no good options at this point,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics, a research firm. “Whatever they do, it’s hard to see how there won’t be significant restrictions imposed across large parts of the country, which is going to have a huge impact on weakening the economy.” “政府目前没有好的选择，”研究公司凯投宏观的首席亚洲经济学家马克·威廉姆斯说。“无论他们做什么，很难想象不会给这个国家的很大一片地区造成严重制约，这会给经济带来严重的削弱 。” More than 80 cities in China are now battling infections compared with 50 cities in the spring, when a smaller surge of infections prompted an eight-week lockdown in Shanghai and set the economy on its slowest pace of annual growth in decades. These cities account for half of China’s economic activity and ship 90 percent of its exports, according to Capital Economics. 中国目前有80多个城市正在与感染作斗争，而春季时是50个城市，当时规模较小的感染激增促使上海实施了为期八周的封锁，并使经济增速降至几十年来的最低水平。凯投宏观的数据显示，这些城市占中国经济活动的一半，出口占中国出口的90%。 广告 Earlier this month, China announced plans to ease some pandemic policies, fueling speculation that it was the beginning of a transition to phase out its “zero-Covid” policy, much to the delight of investors who sent shares of Chinese companies soaring. But as the number of infections rose, the government reverted to a familiar playbook and held firm to what it has said all along: China is trying to eradicate Covid, not learning to live with it. 本月早些时候，中国宣布放松一些疫情政策的计划，引发了人们的猜测，认为这是逐步退出“清零”政策的开始，这让投资者感到高兴，推动中国公司的股价飙升。但随着感染人数的上升，政府恢复了熟悉的手段，并坚持其一直以来的说法：中国正在努力消除新冠病毒，而不是学习与其共存。 In a series of editorials in state media starting on Sunday, Beijing said that China still needed to “maintain strategic focus” in combating Covid, but it urged officials around the country to avoid extreme measures such as blocking fire exits or barricading communal doors during quarantine. It stressed the need for local officials to adhere to policy tweaks meant to “optimize” existing Covid policies and limit disruptions to people and businesses. 从周日开始，在官方媒体的一系列社论中，北京表示，中国仍然需要“保持战略定力”抗击新冠疫情，但它敦促全国各地的官员避免在隔离期间采取封锁消防出口或堵住公用大门等极端措施。其中强调地方官员需要坚持政策调整，以便“优化”现有的新冠政策，限制对个人和企业的干扰。 Even so, the authorities on Monday night deployed additional security to discourage another night of protests. 尽管如此，周一晚上，当局还是部署了额外的安全措施，以阻止抗议活动再次发生。 周一，在北京举行的反对中国严格“清零”政策的抗议活动中，警察拉起了警戒线。 KEVIN FRAYER/GETTY IMAGESThe growing unrest has threatened to jeopardize China’s hard-earned reputation as the world’s factory floor. Last week, workers upset about unpaid Covid bonuses and poor quarantine protocols rioted and clashed with police at a Chinese factory where Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn produces more than half of the world’s iPhones. 不断加剧的动荡可能危及中国来之不易的“世界工厂”声誉。上周，在台湾承包制造商富士康生产全球一半以上iPhone的中国代工厂，工人们对未支付的疫情补贴和糟糕的隔离措施感到不满，与警方发生冲突。 Andrew Fennell, an analyst who oversees China’s government credit ratings for Fitch, said the country’s uncompromising approach has “weighed heavily on the economy and elevated social tensions.” He said that he expects Beijing to relax the most restrictive measures under its zero-tolerance approach, such as citywide lockdowns, in 2023, but that many restrictions will remain in place because of relatively low vaccination rates among the elderly in China. 惠誉负责中国政府信用评级的分析师安德鲁·芬内尔表示，中国不妥协的做法“给经济带来了沉重压力，加剧了社会紧张局势”。他说，他预计北京将在2023年放松其“清零”政策下最严格的措施，如全市封锁，但由于中国老年人的疫苗接种率相对较低，许多限制措施将继续存在。 In a reflection of those low rates, China said on Tuesday that it would increase efforts to vaccinate its oldest citizens, a move experts see as a crucial precursor to reopening the economy. 由于最年长公民的低疫苗接种率，中国周二表示将加紧为这个群体接种疫苗。专家认为，此举是重新开放经济的一个重要前兆。 Goldman Sachs estimated in a note on Monday that there was a 30 percent chance that China would abandon “zero Covid” before April as the central government is forced to “choose between more lockdowns and more Covid outbreaks.” 高盛周一在一份报告中估计，由于中央政府被迫“在更多封锁和更多疫情之间做出选择”，中国在4月之前放弃“清零”的可能性为30%。 上周发布在社交媒体上的视频显示，富士康郑州iPhone工厂的工人与防暴警察发生冲突。 VIA AFP— GETTY; VIA REUTERS; VIA AFP— GETTYAfter the initial outbreak of Covid in 2020, China’s economy bounced back quickly. While the rest of the world remained in lockdown, China’s hard-line approach to keeping the coronavirus in check worked well and its economy roared to life. In particular, exports were a bright spot as Chinese factories manufactured many of the products that the rest of the world bought online during isolation. Last year, China’s economy grew by an impressive 8 percent. 经过2020年最早的一波新冠疫情后，中国经济迅速反弹。在世界其他国家仍处于封锁状态的时候，中国控制新冠病毒的强硬措施取得了良好效果，中国经济迅速复苏。出口是一个特别的亮点，因为世界其他国家隔离期间在网上购买的许多产品都是中国工厂生产的。去年，中国经济增长了惊人的8%。 Currently, many of China’s biggest trading partners are staring at a possible recession from runaway inflation, rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine. Domestically, the usually reliable pillars of real estate and high technology have fallen on hard times, and making more credit available to businesses has not jumpstarted the economy. 目前，由于通胀失控、利率上升以及乌克兰战争，中国的许多最大贸易伙伴都面临着可能的衰退。在国内，房地产和高科技等通常可靠的支柱已经陷入困境，向企业提供更多信贷也未能推动经济增长。 广告 For small businesses, the recent outbreak is already sapping demand. 对于小企业来说，最近的疫情已经在削弱需求。 Cai Zhikang, a cake shop owner in Shenzhen, said corporate customers, the main source of his business, are starting to cancel orders more frequently. He said that a customer had scrapped a large corporate catering order exceeding $500 on Monday, a day after residents in the city in southeastern China staged a protest there over some of the latest restrictions. 深圳一家蛋糕店的店主蔡志康（音）说，企业客户是他业务的主要来源，他们开始更频繁地取消订单。他表示，周一，一名顾客取消了一份超过3500元的大型企业餐饮订单。一天前，这座中国东南部城市的居民针对最新的一些限制措施举行了抗议。 11月，在中国深圳的下沙村，一名送餐员骑车经过被关闭的商店。由于多次封锁，这里的许多企业要么停业，要么搬迁。 QILAI SHEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESMr. Cai, 28, said that each wave of infections had brought more austerity from corporate customers who cut back on spending for employee treats to preserve their budgets. He said that he was also forced to close his shop for a month when Shenzhen imposed restrictions on the park where he operates his store. There is no point, he added, in planning ahead anymore because everything is dependent on whether Covid is spreading or not. 28岁的蔡志康说，每一波感染都让企业客户更加节俭，他们削减了员工的福利支出以保持预算。他说，当深圳对他开店的园区实施限制时，他的店还曾被迫关闭一个月。他还说，现在提前计划已经没有意义了，因为一切都取决于新冠是否在传播。 “If there is no Covid, I can definitely earn. When there is Covid, I cannot,” Mr. Cai said. “如果没有新冠，我肯定能赚钱。有疫情的时候就做不到。” The impact has also spread to larger companies. A decline in overall profits at China’s industrial firms accelerated in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Profit in China’s 41 industrial sectors fell by 3 percent in the January to October period, a steeper decline compared with a 2.3 percent slide in January to September, numbers released on Sunday indicate. 这种影响还波及到更大的公司。根据国家统计局的数据，中国工业企业的总体利润在10月份加速下降。周日发布的数据显示，今年1月至10月，中国41个工业部门的利润下降了3%，与1月至9月的2.3%相比，降幅更大。 China’s initial success in containing Covid started to crumble this year with the spread of the more infectious Omicron variant. The government projected a modest 5.5 percent growth for 2022 in March, several weeks before a sharp rise in infections pushed Shanghai into lockdown and brought the economy to a grinding halt. A series of smaller subsequent outbreaks has continued to test the limits of China’s zero-tolerance strategy, putting the government’s economic growth target out of reach. 今年，随着更具传染性的奥密克戎变异株的传播，中国在控制新冠方面最初的成功开始崩溃。政府今年3月预测，2022年中国经济将有5.5%的适度增长。几周后，感染人数急剧上升迫使上海进入封锁状态，经济陷入停滞。随后发生的一系列规模较小的疫情继续考验着中国“清零”战略的极限，使政府的经济增长目标无法实现。 周一，上海在发生对新冠限制的抗议之后在路边设置了屏障。 HECTOR RETAMAL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESOn Monday, Nomura, a Japanese brokerage, cut its forecast for fourth-quarter economic growth to 2.4 percent from an earlier estimate of 2.8 percent, citing “a slow, painful and bumpy road to reopening.” It also lowered its gross domestic product prediction for 2023 to a 4 percent increase from a previous estimate of 4.3 percent. 周一，日本券商野村证券将其对第四季度经济增长的预期从此前的2.8%下调至2.4%，理由是“重新开放的道路缓慢、痛苦且坎坷”。它还将2023年的国内生产总值增长预期从此前的4.3%下调至4%。 A slowdown in the economy is already apparent to Emma Wang, 39, who owns a store selling handbags and suitcases in a shopping mall in Langzhong, a city in Sichuan Province where there are a handful of infections. 对39岁的艾玛·王（音）来说，经济放缓已经很明显。她在四川阆中的一个购物中心有一间店铺，出售手提包和行李箱，该市的感染人数不多。 广告 When she opened her store two years ago, business was steady and profitable. But more recently, people have started avoiding malls even though the city is not under lockdown. She is considering moving her business online to sell off her inventory. 两年前她开店时，生意稳定，利润丰厚。但最近，人们开始避开购物中心，尽管这座城市没有被封锁。她正在考虑将自己的业务转移到网上，以便卖出库存。 “In the pandemic, there are no customers,” said Ms. Wang. “It’s difficult to sell even one bag.” “疫情期间没有顾客，”艾玛·王说。“一个包都卖不出去。” 周一，新冠疫情下，北京的一个购物中心。 TINGSHU WANG/REUTERSCompounding the problems for the mother of two is that her husband, who works for a food manufacturer whose business also has been disrupted, has not been paid by his employer for a few months. 让这位两个孩子的母亲更加头疼的是，她的丈夫在一家食品制造商工作，其业务也被打乱了，雇主已经有几个月没给他发工资。 “We have a mortgage and credit card loans,” she said. “The situation is not improving and it really upsets me.” “我们有抵押贷款和信用卡贷款，”她说。“情况没有改善，这真的让我很不安。” Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻亚洲商业记者，常驻首尔。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@daiwaka。 Joy Dong负责报道大陆和香港新闻，她常驻香港。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@JoyDongHK。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道中国各地抗议为全球经济带来不确定性2022年11月29日 中国推迟发布经济数据意味着什么2022年10月19日 中国经济恶化，多地出现“停贷潮”2022年8月18日 中国多地再度封锁，引发对经济担忧2022年7月20日 中国经济在“清零”中举步维艰2022年7月12日 最受欢迎中共前最高领导人江泽民去世，享年96岁 中国人的抗议表达：白纸、方程式和“对对对对”墙 恐吓、审查、抹黑：中国当局部署安全机器打压抗议活动 中国央视世界杯转播删减观众席镜头 北京罕见政治抗议凸显焦虑和不确定性 自豪、害怕与矛盾：中国年轻抗议者讲述自己的故事 关于中国多地爆发的抗议活动，你应该知道的 “不要核酸要自由”：中国多地爆发反封控抗议 白宫对中国抗议活动谨慎表态：每个人都有和平抗议的权利 大规模抗议席卷中国：要求结束封控，罕见表达政治诉求 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.