两国方案是化解巴以冲突的答案吗Does a 2-State Solution, Long Discounted, Still Have a Future? 新89 plot 美围猎习 中国愚众

鸿儒私塾观察 中国梦纪念馆 鸿儒馆Pinterest 新89 plot 美围猎习 中国愚众 国际 中 双语 英 两国方案是化解巴以冲突的答案吗Does a 2-State Solution, Long Discounted, Still Have a Future?MARK LANDLER2023年11月2日 2000年，（自左起）以色列总理巴拉克、美国总统克林顿和巴勒斯坦领导人阿拉法特在戴维营。那可能是以色列和巴勒斯坦最接近达成两国方案的时刻。 PAUL HOSEFROS/THE NEW YORK TIMES“There has to be a vision of what comes next,” President Biden said last week of the war between Israel and Hamas. “In our view, it has to be a two-state solution.” The surest path to peace, said Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain, is a two-state solution, a sentiment echoed by President Emmanuel Macron of France. “对于接下来的形势必须有一个共识，”拜登总统上周在谈到以色列与哈马斯之间的战争时表示。“在我方看来，两国方案的落实是必然结果。”英国首相苏纳克表示，两国方案是实现和平的最稳妥途径，法国总统马克龙也表达了同样的观点。 At first glance, their words seemed like a sepia-tinted throwback: invoking, as a remedy for the worst eruption of bloodshed between Israelis and Palestinians in many years, the faded relic of a peace process that many on both sides viewed as dead and buried some time late in the Obama administration. 他们的言论乍看上去像是一种倒退，搬出了奥巴马政府执政后期被巴以双方许多人视为毫无希望且被埋葬已久的和平进程遗物，当作对这场多年来最严重的巴以流血冲突的补救措施。 And yet, the two-state solution — Israelis and Palestinians living side-by-side in their own sovereign countries — is getting a new hearing, not just in foreign-policy circles in Washington, London and Paris but also, more quietly, among the combatants themselves. In part, it reflects the lack of any other viable alternative. 然而，主张巴以各自建立并存主权国家的两国方案不仅在华盛顿、伦敦和巴黎的外交政策圈得到了新的关注，更是悄无声息地引来了交战双方的权衡。在某种程度上，这反映了缺乏其他可行替代方案的现实。 “We cannot return to a pattern where every other year, there is a violent confrontation between Israel and Hamas,” said Gilead Sher, who helped lead Israel’s negotiations with the Palestinians in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the two sides arguably came closest to striking a two-state settlement. “我们不能回到以色列和哈马斯每隔一年就发生暴力冲突的状态，”吉里德·谢尔说，他在上世纪90年代末和2000年代初帮助领导了以色列与巴勒斯坦的协商，那可谓双方最接近达成两国和解方案的时刻。 “If America engages in what President Biden has stated he would commit to, there is a chance,” he said. “There is a chance for negotiations that could provide a step-by-step process to two distinct states.” “如果美国能按照拜登总统的承诺行事，就有机会实现，”他说。“谈判有可能为两个南辕北辙的国家提供一个循序渐进的和解过程。” 本月早些时候访问特拉维夫的拜登总统。自战争开始以来，他一直在继续推动两国方案的实现。 KENNY HOLSTON/THE NEW YORK TIMESSuch an effort would have to overcome a thicket of obstacles, not least the proliferation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which Palestinians say have eroded the dream of creating a viable state on that land. The rise of ultranationalists in Israel further complicates the task: They oppose Palestinian statehood, seek to annex the West Bank, and know that uprooting the settlers is political dynamite. 这一努力必须克服重重障碍，尤其是考虑到约旦河西岸犹太人定居点的扩张，巴勒斯坦人称这些定居点已经侵蚀了在那片土地上成功建国的梦想。以色列极端民族主义者的崛起让这一任务更加复杂化：他们反对巴勒斯坦建国，寻求吞并西岸地区，也知道驱逐定居者是个爆炸性的政治议题。 Mr. Sher listed a string of caveats for Israeli-Palestinian talks: The two sides would have to start modestly, with a political process focused on disengagement rather than a high-stakes negotiation over the details of two states. Both would need new leaders, he said, since the existing ones have proved to be unwilling or incapable of striking a deal. Above all, Hamas would have to be vanquished and the Gaza Strip demilitarized. 谢尔就巴以谈判发出一系列提醒：双方必须在开始时拿出谦让姿态，政治进程的重点是结束战斗，而不是就各自建国的细节进行利害攸关的谈判。他说双方都需要新的领导人，因为现任领导人已被证明不愿或没有能力达成协议。最重要的是，必须击败哈马斯，加沙地带也必须实现非军事化。 Israeli officials say they are focused on the battle against Hamas, which could last for months, and that any discussion of a peace process must wait until after the guns are silent. But in think tanks and corners of the Israeli foreign ministry, discussion of what a day-after political process would look like has already begun. 以色列官员表示，他们的注意力集中在与哈马斯的战斗上，这可能将持续数月，任何关于和平进程的讨论都必须等到停火之后。但在智囊团内部和以色列外交部的隐蔽角落，关于停火后立即开始的政治进程会是什么样的讨论已经开始了。 Among Palestinians, suffering Israel’s bombardment and blockade of Gaza, and rising tensions on the West Bank, the prospects for statehood appear even more far-fetched. But some Palestinians argue that the shock of the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7 has stripped Israelis of the illusion that they can manage conflict with Palestinians without confronting their deeper aspirations for nationhood. 对于深受以色列对加沙的轰炸封锁以及约旦河西岸紧张局势之苦的巴勒斯坦人来说，建国的希望似乎更加渺茫了。有巴勒斯坦人认为，哈马斯在10月7日发动的袭击让以色列人停止了幻想，不再相信可以在不打击巴勒斯坦人更深层次的建国抱负的情况下处理好与他们的冲突。 “What happened on Oct. 7 should push us to be more creative and more innovative about the two-state solution,” said Nidal Foqaha, director general of the Palestinian Peace Coalition, a nonprofit group based in Ramallah, in the West Bank. “Without a political horizon, this is an impossible mission.” “10月7日发生的一切应当促使我们在两国方案上拿出更多想象力和创造力，”巴勒斯坦和平联盟总干事尼达尔·福卡哈说，该联盟是总部位于约旦河西岸拉马拉市的非营利组织。“若是不具备足够的政治视野，这就会成为不可能完成的任务。” 周二，从以色列斯代罗特可以看到加沙地带的滚滚浓烟。以色列官员表示，他们的注意力集中在与哈马斯的战斗上，这可能将持续数月，任何关于和平进程的讨论都必须搁置。 AVISHAG SHAAR-YASHUV FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESThe mechanics of such a process are far from clear. The European Union last week called for an international peace conference, an idea championed by Spain, which held a landmark Middle East peace summit in Madrid in 1991. Arab nations could also convene peace negotiations, though an early effort by Egypt last week, as the Israeli military operation in Gaza was gearing up, produced little. 和平进程的机制还远没有得到明确。欧盟上周呼吁召开国际和平会议，这一想法得到了西班牙的支持。1991年，西班牙曾在马德里举行一场具里程碑意义的中东和平峰会。阿拉伯国家也可以召集和平协商，不过埃及在上周的努力收效甚微，当时正值以色列的加沙军事行动愈演愈烈之际。 By all accounts, the United States would have to take a central role in any talks between the Israelis and Palestinians. That has not happened since the Obama administration, when the secretary of state at the time, John Kerry, shuttled between the two sides in 2013 and 2014 before giving up in frustration. It was a quest that even then, some aides to President Barack Obama viewed as quixotic. 无论从哪个角度说，美国都必须在巴以之间的任何谈判中发挥核心作用。自奥巴马政府以来美国就没能再扮演这样的角色，时任国务卿约翰·克里在2013年和2014年曾为双方反复斡旋，最后还是在挫败中选择放弃。即便在当时，奥巴马总统的一些助手也认为这个目标是不切实际的。 Under President Donald J. Trump, the United States shifted its energy from resolving the Palestinian issue to normalizing relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors. That strategy dovetailed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in a coalition with right-wing partners who openly disdained the idea of a Palestinian state. Mr. Netanyahu, himself, has swung between saying he would be willing to consider a Palestinian nation with limited security powers, and opposing it outright. 而到特朗普总统任内，美国不再把精力放在解决巴勒斯坦问题之上，转而关注的是以色列与阿拉伯邻国关系的正常化。这与内塔尼亚胡总理的战略一致，后者所在的右翼联盟公然表达了对巴勒斯坦建国的不屑态度。内塔尼亚胡本人则摇摆不定，时而宣称愿意考虑接受一个国防力量有限的巴勒斯坦国，时而又坚决表示反对。 “One of the biggest issues with the phrase ‘two-state solution’ is that it fails to address the very real threats against Israel that exist now, and will likely continue to exist, within certain segments of Palestinian society and elsewhere,” said Jason D. Greenblatt, who was Mr. Trump’s special envoy to the region. “‘两国方案’这个说法的最大问题之一是，它未能解决巴勒斯坦社会某些阶层和其他地方目前存在，并可能继续存在的对以色列的真实威胁，”特朗普的中东问题特使杰森·格林布拉特说。 Mr. Greenblatt said the Trump administration’s approach to peacemaking emphasized Israel’s security needs. The Abraham Accords, the Trump-brokered deal under which Israel normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020, forestalled an Israeli plan to annex 30 percent of the West Bank. But it effectively set aside the goal of a Palestinian state. 格林布拉特说，特朗普政府的维和方式强调了以色列的安全需求。特朗普促成的《亚伯拉罕协议》阻止了以色列吞并约旦河西岸30%土地的计划。根据该协议，以色列将于2020年与阿拉伯联合酋长国和巴林实现关系正常化。但它实际上搁置了建立巴勒斯坦国的目标。 2020年，在华盛顿签署《亚伯拉罕协议》的当天，左起为以色列总理内塔尼亚胡、美国总统特朗普、巴林外交大臣扎耶尼、阿拉伯联合酋长国外交大臣阿卜杜拉。DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMESDespite its fealty to the dream of two states, the Biden administration largely adopted the Trump blueprint. It had been trying to broker a deal that would normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, an even greater prize for Israel than the Gulf emirates, given Saudi Arabia’s status as the vanguard of the Arab world. 拜登政府虽然忠于两国方案的梦想，但基本上采纳了特朗普的蓝图。它一直试图促成一项协议，使以色列和沙特阿拉伯的关系正常化，鉴于沙特阿拉伯在阿拉伯世界先锋的地位，它对以色列来说甚至比阿联酋更重要。 Those talks have been put on hold by the Israel-Hamas war. But if Israel were able to revive them, that could put the two-state solution back on the table. The Saudis have told Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken that they want steps toward a Palestinian state to be part of any normalization accord with Israel. 这些谈判因以色列和哈马斯之间的战争而被搁置。但如果以色列能够恢复和谈，两国方案就有可能重新回到谈判桌上。沙特告诉国务卿布林肯，他们希望巴勒斯坦建国的步骤成为与以色列达成任何正常化协议的一部分。 Arab countries are also likely to push for the Palestinian issue to be addressed as a condition of playing a role in stabilizing and rebuilding postwar Gaza. Dangling the prospect of a Palestinian state could reassure Egypt and Jordan, which are alarmed by the prospect of millions of refugees from Gaza. 阿拉伯国家也有可能把解决巴勒斯坦问题作为在战后加沙的稳定和重建中发挥作用的条件。巴勒斯坦建国的前景可能会让埃及和约旦放心，这两个国家对数百万来自加沙难民的前景感到担忧。 “Part of this is to give them the framing, the packaging, they need to take part in a solution for Gaza,” said Ghaith Al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a research organization. “That’s one reason I think the president talked about it, even if it seemed irrelevant.” “这样做的部分目的是给他们提供框架和包装，让他们参与到加沙的解决方案中来，”研究机构华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员盖斯·奥马里说。“我认为这是总统谈到它的一个原因，尽管它看起来无关紧要。” The odds of progress with the current Israeli and Palestinian leaders are nonexistent, Mr. Omari said. Mr. Netanyahu’s governing coalition includes ultranationalist partners who want to annex the West Bank, which Israel has occupied since 1967 and which they refer to by the biblical names of Judea and Samaria. 奥马里说，与以色列和巴勒斯坦现任领导人取得进展的可能性微乎其微。内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟包括极端民族主义伙伴，他们希望吞并约旦河西岸。以色列自1967年以来一直占领约旦河西岸，他们用圣经中的名字犹地亚—撒玛利亚来称呼这里。 At a minimum, his government was committed to rapidly expanding the number of Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Since the Hamas attacks, attacks on Palestinians by settlers and Israeli troops have surged. 至少，内塔尼亚胡政府致力于迅速扩大约旦河西岸犹太人定居点的数量。自从哈马斯发动袭击以来，定居者和以色列军队对巴勒斯坦人的袭击激增。 The president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, 87, has lost legitimacy with his public, analysts said, particularly after he canceled elections in 2021. Critics say Mr. Netanyahu contributed to the weakening of the Palestinian Authority by pursuing a divide-and-conquer strategy that bolstered Hamas. 分析人士说，87岁的巴勒斯坦权力机构主席阿巴斯在公众心目中已经失去了合法性，尤其是在他取消2021年的选举之后。批评人士说，内塔尼亚胡推行的分而治之的策略助长了哈马斯，从而削弱了巴勒斯坦权力机构。 2020年在拉马拉，巴勒斯坦权力机构主席阿巴斯拿着从1947年联合国分治计划到特朗普总统提议边界的巴勒斯坦地图。 POOL PHOTO BY ALAA BADARNEHDiplomatic historians like to point out that the leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Yasir Arafat, came tantalizingly close to a deal with Israel brokered by President Bill Clinton in 2000, only to walk away. And that was before hundreds of thousands of new settlers put down roots across the West Bank. 外交史学家喜欢指出，2000年，在克林顿总统的斡旋下，巴勒斯坦解放组织领导人阿拉法特差一点就与以色列达成协议，但最后却放弃了。那是在数十万新定居者在约旦河西岸扎根之前。 Violent clashes between Israelis and Palestinians have cut both ways in terms of influencing subsequent peace efforts. The barbaric nature of the Hamas attacks and the ferocity of the Israeli military response in Gaza, experts said, make the coming debate in Israel particularly unpredictable. 以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之间的暴力冲突对后来的和平努力产生了双向影响。专家们表示，哈马斯袭击的野蛮性质，以及以色列在加沙的军事反应的残暴，使得关于以色列未来的讨论格外难以预测。 “There will be two sides to that debate,” said Dennis B. Ross, a peace negotiator under Mr. Clinton and Mr. Obama. “What Hamas showed is that it is too dangerous to have a Palestinian state next to us because it could become dominated by groups like Hamas. The countervailing argument will be, once we defeat Hamas, we cannot freeze the situation with the Palestinians on our terms indefinitely.” “这场讨论将会有两个方面，”克林顿和奥巴马政府的和平谈判代表丹尼斯·罗斯说。“哈马斯的袭击表明，在我们旁边建立一个巴勒斯坦国太危险了，因为它可能会被哈马斯这样的组织所控制。另一面的观点是，一旦我们击败哈马斯，我们就不能按照我们的条件，无限期地冻结与巴勒斯坦人的关系。” Mr. Omari, who once advised Palestinian negotiators, suggested a less calculated reason for the re-emergence of the two-state solution. 奥马里曾是巴勒斯坦谈判代表的顾问，他认为，两国方案的重新出现有一个并非算计好的原因。 “This is similar to 9/11 in that everyone knows something huge has happened and there are going to be changes, but no one knows what the changes are going to be,” he said. “You default to your muscle memory; you default to your talking points. It’s a place-holder while you figure out what will happen.” “这与9·11类似，每个人都知道发生了重大的事情，会有变化，但没有人知道这些变化会是什么，”他说。“你回到默认的肌肉记忆；你回到默认的观点。在你思考接下来会发生什么期间，它成了一个暂时搁置在那里的选项。” Adam Sella 自特拉维夫对本文有报道贡献。 Mark Landler是时报伦敦分社社长。在时报工作的三十年里，他先后担任过驻香港和法兰克福分社社长、白宫记者、外交记者、欧洲经济记者和驻纽约的商业记者。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道以色列对加沙的地面入侵已秘密开始2023年11月1日 美国还会“毫无保留”支持以色列多久2023年10月31日 以色列对哈马斯多年误判如何酿恶果2023年10月30日 以色列对加沙轰炸规模之大令全球瞩目2023年10月27日 若哈马斯被击败，未来谁将统治加沙2023年10月26日 最受欢迎中国人哀悼李克强，也哀悼一个希望尚存的时代 农民工曾推动中国经济崛起，现在他们已失去退路 “一切都发生在暗中”：以色列对加沙地面入侵隐秘开始 不，习近平不会立即“武统”台湾 美国还会“毫无保留”支持以色列多久 中国官方寻求调停巴以冲突，民间反犹反以情绪高涨 巴以局势影响下欧洲出现反犹浪潮 中国前总理李克强去世：习近平权威阴影下的温和派 “我们为没有犯下的罪付出了过高的代价” 中国国防部长李尚福被免职，此前已近两月未公开露面 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App © 2023 The New York Times Company.