观点美国正在亚洲失去军事威慑力，中国很清楚这一点The U.S. Is Losing Its Military Edge in Asia, and China Knows ItASHLEY TOWNSHEND, JAMES CRABTREE2022年6月16日 JOHN CUSTERA Chinese fighter jet veered in front of an Australian military surveillance aircraft over international waters in the South China Sea last month and released metallic debris that was sucked into the Australian plane’s engines. 上个月，在南海国际水域上空，一架中国战斗机在澳大利亚一架军用侦察机前方转向，释放出金属碎片，它们卷进了澳大利亚飞机的引擎。 No one was reported hurt in the encounter, which Australia’s defense minister called “very dangerous,” but it added to a string of recent incidents that demonstrate China’s growing willingness to test the United States and its partners in Asia militarily. 据报道，没有人在这次遭遇中受伤，澳大利亚国防部长称其“非常危险”，但它只是最近一系列事件中的一起，表明中国越来越愿意在军事上试探美国及其亚洲伙伴。 China has systematically tracked U.S. warships in the region, its air force has staged intensifying incursions into Taiwanese and Japanese airspace, and its coast guard routinely harasses Philippine, Malaysian and Indonesian vessels. In recent weeks, Chinese fighter pilots have repeatedly buzzed Canadian military aircraft on a U.N.-sanctioned operation — sometimes raising their middle fingers at the Canadians. 中国在该地区系统性地跟踪美国军舰，它的空军加强了对台湾和日本领空的入侵，海警经常骚扰菲律宾、马来西亚和印度尼西亚的船只。最近几周，中国战机多次逼近执行联合国批准行动的加拿大军机，有时还会对加拿大人竖中指。 As China’s armed forces grow in strength, sophistication and confidence, U.S.-led military deterrence in the Indo-Pacific is losing its bite. 随着中国军队的实力、先进程度和信心的增长，美国主导的印太地区的军事威慑力量正在失去效力。 Take the United States’ military presence in the region. It has about 55,000 military personnel in Japan and 28,000 in South Korea. Several thousand more are deployed across Australia, the Philippines, Thailand and Guam. This posture has barely changed since the 1950s. But plans to reinvigorate the U.S. presence have been stymied by inadequate budgets, competing priorities and a lack of consensus in Washington on how to deal with China. 以美国在该地区的军事存在为例。它在日本有约5.5万名驻军，在韩国约有2.8万名驻军。还有数千人部署在澳大利亚、菲律宾、泰国和关岛。自20世纪50年代以来，这种态势几乎没有改变。但是，由于预算不足、优先事项相互竞争，以及华盛顿在如何应对中国问题上缺乏共识，重振美国军事存在的计划一直受阻。 The Pentagon has increased investments in cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence, and cyber- and space-based systems to prepare for a possible high-tech conflict with China in the 2030s. But the balance of power is likely to shift decidedly in China’s favor by the time they are deployed unless the United States brings new resources to the table soon. 五角大楼增加了对人工智能、网络系统和天基系统等尖端技术的投资，为21世纪30年代可能与中国发生高科技冲突做准备。但是，除非美国尽快带来新的资源，否则等到部署这些武器时，军力的平衡很可能会明显地向中国倾斜。 President Biden this year submitted the largest defense budget ever in dollar terms, but much of the increase will be swallowed up by skyrocketing inflation. Mr. Biden, like former President Donald Trump, is thus falling short of a target of 3 percent to 5 percent real annual budget growth, a bipartisan goal set even before the Ukraine war and often cited as the minimum the Pentagon needs in today’s era of great-power competition. 拜登总统今年提交了有史以来以美元计的最大国防预算，但大部分增加将被急剧上涨的通货膨胀抵消。因此，与前总统特朗普一样，拜登未能达到3%到5%的实际年度预算增长目标，这是两党在乌克兰战争之前就制定的目标，一般被视为五角大楼在当今大国竞争时代所需的最低限度。 While the U.S. military is globally dispersed, China can concentrate its forces on winning a future conflict in its own neighborhood. It now has the capability. China has the world’s largest navy and Asia’s biggest air force and an imposing arsenal of missiles designed to deter the United States from projecting military power into the Western Pacific in a crisis. China’s third and most advanced aircraft carrier is nearing completion, and other new hardware is being developed or is already in service. 美国军队散布于全球，而中国可以把军力集中放在自己的周边地区，以此赢得未来的冲突。它现在有这种能力。中国拥有世界上最大的海军和亚洲最大的空军，以及一个强大的导弹库，旨在阻止美国在危机中向西太平洋投射军事力量。中国第三艘、也是最先进的航母即将完工，其他新的硬件正在研发或已经投入使用。 Beijing is also raising alarm with its readiness to project that strength. 北京已经准备展示这种力量，这也引起了人们的警惕。 While much attention is focused on its behavior toward Taiwan, China is building and militarizing artificial islands in the South China Sea. It also broke ground on an expanded naval port in Cambodia last week, which may one day provide its first military foothold in another Asian country. A security agreement with the Solomon Islands could lead to something similar, and Beijing is aggressively courting other Pacific nations. 当人们的注意力都集中在它对台湾的行为时，中国正在南海建造人工岛并将其军事化。上周，中国在柬埔寨的一个海军港口扩建工程也破土动工，这里有朝一日可能成为中国在另一个亚洲国家的第一个军事立足点。与所罗门群岛达成的安全协议可能会带来类似的结果，北京还在积极拉拢其他太平洋国家。 America’s military position in Asia, by contrast, has been hampered by decades of preoccupation with Middle East conflicts. The war in Ukraine has morphed into a long-term $54 billion commitment and forced Mr. Biden to delay and redraft his administration’s National Defense Strategy and National Security Strategy — critical documents that lay out global priorities and resource needs — as officials grapple with how to manage China and Russia at the same time. 相比之下，美国在亚洲的军事地位因几十年来对中东冲突的关注而受到阻碍。乌克兰战争已经演变成一项540亿美元的长期承诺，迫使拜登推迟并重新起草其政府的《国防战略》和《国家安全战略》——这两份重要文件列出了全球的优先事项和资源需求。与此同时，官员们正在努力解决如何同时管理中国和俄罗斯问题。 Mr. Biden’s team ended the lengthy and costly U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, but that has not freed up many resources for the Indo-Pacific. Washington must not lose sight of the fact that China is a far greater security threat than Russia, now and in the long term. 拜登的团队结束了美国在阿富汗旷日持久且代价高昂的行动，但这并没有为印太地区腾出太多资源。华盛顿绝不能忽视这样一个事实，即无论是现在还是长远来看，中国的安全威胁都远远大于俄罗斯。 U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said “the Indo-Pacific is at the heart of American grand strategy” during a speech last week at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore, but he offered little in the way of new resources or commitments. 美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀上周在新加坡举行的防务峰会——香格里拉对话上发表讲话时说，“印太地区是美国大战略的核心”，但他没有提出什么新的资源或承诺。 To turn things around, the United States must prioritize the threat from China, reinforce its military strength in Asia and provide Australia, Japan and India more sophisticated military and technological capabilities to bolster a strategy of collective defense. 为了扭转局面，美国必须优先考虑来自中国的威胁，加强其在亚洲的军事力量，并向澳大利亚、日本和印度提供更先进的军事和技术能力，以支持集体防御战略。 It should urgently expand the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which would direct additional spending toward strengthening the U.S. military presence west of Hawaii by distributing forces more widely through the region, improving logistics and air defenses, and other measures. These are necessary to reduce exposure of U.S. forces to China’s long-range missiles and increase the locations from which they could operate in a crisis. But this initiative has suffered from insufficient funding and criticism that its top priorities were not being met. 它应该紧急扩大《太平洋威慑倡议》，通过在该地区更广泛地部署兵力、改善后勤和防空等措施，将额外的支出用于加强美国在夏威夷以西的军事存在。这些都是必要的，可以减少美国军队遭受中国远程导弹攻击的风险，增加他们在危机中可以采取行动的地点。但是，但这一举措资金不足，并因其首要任务没有得到满足而受到批评。 The United States could also strengthen its military posture in the region by increasing from five to six the number of attack submarines home-ported in Guam, expanding maritime operations in the Pacific and deploying more advanced fighters, warships, drones and long-range missiles to the region. 美国还可以将驻扎在关岛的攻击型潜艇数量从五艘增加到六艘，扩大在太平洋的海上行动，并在该地区部署更多先进的战斗机、军舰、无人机和远程导弹，从而加强在该地区的军事态势。 But all of that may still not be enough. The challenge posed by China is becoming so great that the United States can no longer maintain a balance of military power in Asia by itself. 但所有这些可能仍然不够。中国带来的挑战变得如此巨大，以至于美国无法再独自维持亚洲的军事力量平衡。 Washington took a bold first step toward sharing more of the burden through the AUKUS agreement announced last year, under which it will work with Britain to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and codevelop other advanced military technologies in the interim. But the submarines won’t enter service until the late 2030s, and AUKUS’s other collaborative efforts will require difficult reforms to longstanding U.S. restrictions on sharing sensitive national security technology. 通过去年宣布的澳英美联盟(AUKUS)，华盛顿向分担更多的负担迈出了大胆的第一步。根据该协议，华盛顿将与英国合作，向澳大利亚提供核动力潜艇，并在此期间共同开发其他先进的军事技术。但潜艇要到21世纪30年代后期才会服役，而且该联盟的其他合作努力也需要艰难的改革，以打破美国长期以来对共享敏感国家安全技术的限制。 Washington should support Australian and Japanese aims to build long-range missiles on home soil by sharing intellectual property, provide more U.S. weaponry to India and beef up foreign military financing in the region, starting with a dedicated fund to boost Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities. 华盛顿应该通过共享知识产权来支持澳大利亚和日本在本土制造远程导弹的目标，向印度提供更多的美国武器，并加强在该地区的外国军事融资，首先是设立一个专门的基金来增强台湾的威慑能力。 America has long neglected its defense strategy in Asia, viewing China’s challenge as important but not urgent. The scenes now playing out in Europe are a stark reminder of what can happen when deterrence fails. 长期以来，美国一直忽视其在亚洲的防御战略，认为中国的挑战很重要，但并不紧迫。现在在欧洲上演的一幕鲜明地提醒我们，当威慑失效时会发生什么。 Ashley Townshend (@ashleytownshend) 是卡内基国际和平基金会印太安全高级研究员。 James Crabtree (@jamescrabtree) 是国际战略研究所亚洲区执行长。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道中国在亚洲是赢家，拜登改变不了这一点2022年6月2日 保卫台湾，拜登不只是说说而已2022年5月25日 中美之间必有一战吗？2021年4月28日 最受欢迎中国清零政策进入新阶段：大规模常态化核酸检测 习近平普京再通电话，提出深化中俄合作 “与时间竞赛”：台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？ 唐山打人事件：中国女性说“不”要承担多少风险？ 拜登考虑削减对华关税，以缓解通货膨胀 那些被遗弃的尸体：在乌克兰战场上凝视死亡 奥密克戎打破“中国梦” 谷歌工程师称AI“有意识、有灵魂”，遭公司停职 从中国走向纽约：不锈钢栅栏成中产家装新风尚 彭博社中国员工范若伊被拘一年后取保候审 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.