若佩洛西访台成行，北京如何应对？A Pelosi Trip to Taiwan Would Test China’s Appetite for Confrontation储百亮2022年8月2日 中国领导人习近平一直敦促台湾与中国统一，佩洛西访问该岛将被视为对他的挑衅。 POOL PHOTO BY SELIM CHTAYTISoon after Beijing’s last big confrontation with Washington over Taiwan, Xi Jinping, then a rising official in a Chinese province that faces the disputed island, joined a reserve artillery division, and later had himself photographed in military greens, cap turned backward as he peered through the sights of an antiaircraft gun. 在上一次中美两国就台湾问题进行严重对峙后不久，习近平加入了一个预备役高炮师，当时他还是中国与这一争议岛屿隔海相望的省份里一名崭露头角的官员。后来，他被拍下了身着绿色军装、反戴着帽子、透过高射炮的瞄准器仔细查看的照片。 Looking tough toward the self-ruled island, Mr. Xi learned long before he became China’s top leader, is essential for political survival in the ruling Communist Party. 早在成为中国最高领导人之前，习近平就明白，对这个自治岛屿的强硬立场事关中共的生死存亡。 That lesson hangs over him as he weighs how to react if Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, travels to Taiwan during a tour of Asian nations that began on Monday in Singapore. She would be the most senior U.S. official to visit the island since 1997, when a previous speaker, Newt Gingrich, visited. 在权衡如何应对众议院议长南希·佩洛西周一始于新加坡的亚洲之行有访问台湾的可能性时，这个经验萦绕在他的心头。若到访台湾，佩洛西将是继1997年时任众议院议长的纽特·金里奇之后，访问该岛最高级别的美国官员。 Mr. Xi has cast himself as the standard-bearer of a sacred cause — unifying Taiwan with China — and Beijing regards visits to the island by American officials as an affront to that claim. China’s foreign ministry has warned Ms. Pelosi of “serious consequences” if, as expected, she goes to Taiwan, and China’s military has issued vague warnings of readiness to defend national sovereignty. 习近平将自己塑造成统一台湾这项神圣事业的领导者，在北京看来，美国官员访问该岛就是对这一主张的挑衅。中国外交部警告佩洛西，如果她如预期那样赴台，将会导致“严重后果”。中国军方也发出了语焉不详的警告，表示准备捍卫国家主权。 But Mr. Xi is also confronting a brittle economic and political moment, and careening into a crisis over Taiwan could damage him, even as he rallies nationalist support. 但习近平也面对着一个脆弱的经济和政治时刻，尽管争取到了民族主义者的支持，若因台湾问题陷入危机仍可能伤及他自己。 He is focused on a Communist Party congress later this year, when he is highly likely to secure backing for a third term as the party’s general secretary, bucking the two-term precedent set by his predecessor. He wants to orchestrate sweeping acclaim from officials to lock in that new five-year term and ensure he dominates decisions on the leadership lineup. 他的注意力集中在今年晚些时候召开的共产党全国代表大会上，届时他极有可能打破前任设定的两届任期先例，获得中共总书记的第三个任期。为了锁定新的五年任期，并确保自己在领导人选方面的主导权，他想精心组织官员们的广泛赞誉。 His record has attracted murmured doubts, however, as China’s growth has faltered under Covid outbreaks and shutdowns, and as Russia’s grinding war in Ukraine has prompted questions about Mr. Xi’s closeness to President Vladimir V. Putin. Now, Ms. Pelosi’s potential meeting with Taiwanese leaders couldfurther challenge Mr. Xi. 然而，随着新冠疫情的暴发和封锁措施拖累经济的增长，他已经引来低声的抱怨；而俄罗斯在乌克兰的酣战让人对他与普京的密切关系产生了质疑。现在，佩洛西与台湾领导人的潜在会晤可能给习近平带来更多挑战。 佩洛西尚未确认她是否会在本周的亚洲之行期间访问台湾。 HAIYUN JIANG/THE NEW YORK TIMESIf Ms. Pelosi follows through — she has not confirmed whether she will visit Taiwan — Mr. Xi is likely to use displays of military might to convey Beijing’s anger while seeking to avoid a volatile standoff that would spook markets and drag down China’s economy, experts said. 专家们表示，如果佩洛西坚持成行（她尚未确定是否访台），习近平可能会通过展示军事力量来表达北京的愤怒，同时寻求避免不安的对峙局面出现，那将导致市场恐慌，拖累中国经济。 “There will be a very strong reaction, for sure, but it will not be out of control,” said Chen Dingding, an international relations professor at Jinan University in southern China. “肯定会有非常强烈的反应，但不会失控，”中国南部暨南大学的国际关系教授陈定定表示。 Mr. Xi appeared to signal his concerns last week, when he told President Biden in a call not to “play with fire” and risk self-immolation over Taiwan. It was ominous language, but the same wording that Mr. Xi used in a call with the U.S. president in November. Neither Mr. Xi nor Mr. Biden mentioned Ms. Pelosi in their public accounts of their conversation. 上周，习近平似乎表明了他的担忧，当时他在电话中告诉拜登总统不要“玩火”，不要在台湾问题上冒自焚的风险。这是预示危机之词，但与习近平在去年11月与美国总统通话时的措辞一样。在公开的通话内容中，习近平和拜登都没有提到佩洛西的名字。 “This is really midlevel warning rhetoric, not high-level warning rhetoric signaling an appetite for war-level risks,” said David Gitter, the president of the Center for Advanced China Research, a nonprofit research institute. “It doesn’t suggest that they’re about to do something very crazy — like directly threaten the speaker’s safety.” “这其实是程度适中的警示言辞，而不是表明对战争风险有兴趣的严重警告，”非营利研究机构中国问题高级研究中心的总裁戴维·吉特说。“这并不能说明他们准备做非常疯狂的事——比如直接威胁议长的人身安全。” 台湾国防部的一张照片显示，2018年，一家台湾F16战斗机正在监视一架飞越台湾南部巴士海峡的中国轰-6轰炸机。 TAIWAN DEFENSE MINISTRY, VIA AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESOn Monday, a spokesman for the National Security Council urged restraint. 周一，美国国家安全委员会的一名发言人敦促保持克制。 “There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with longstanding U.S. policy into some sort of crisis or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait,” the spokesman, John F. Kirby, said at a White House briefing. 发言人约翰·F·柯比(John F. Kirby)在白宫的一次新闻发布会上说，“北京没有理由将一次符合美国长期政策的潜在访问变成某种危机，或者以此为借口，在台湾海峡及其周边地区增加咄咄逼人的军事活动。” China’s ambassador to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, nevertheless denounced the potential visit at a news conference Monday. “As we can see,” he said, “such a visit is apparently very much dangerous, very much provocative. If the U.S. insists on making the visit, China will take firm and strong measures to safeguard our national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”然而，中国驻联合国大使张军在周一的新闻发布会上谴责了这次可能的访问。他说，“这样的访问显然是危险的、挑衅性的。如果美方一意孤行，中方必将采取坚定有力措施，捍卫国家主权和领土完整。” The Chinese government perhaps gave a foretaste of how it would respond if she visits when the military announced live-fire exercises in waters 80 miles from neighboring Taiwan’s coast. On Monday, the 95th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army, Chinese military media unleashed more statements about defending sovereignty, as well as video of China’s Dongfeng-17 ballistic missile. Chinese television also issued an unflattering video profile of Ms. Pelosi. 当军方宣布在临近台湾海岸约130公里的水域进行实战演习，中国政府或许在预示如果佩洛西访问台湾，它会做出怎样的反应。周一，在中国人民解放军建军95周年之际，中国的军事媒体发布了更多捍卫主权的宣言，以及中国东风-17弹道导弹的发射视频。中国的电视台还播放了一段贬损佩洛西的人物介绍视频。 “We once again sternly warn the U.S. side that China stands at the ready and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never sit idly by,” Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, told reporters in Beijing on Monday about Ms. Pelosi’s possible visit. “China will take resolute and vigorous countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.” “我们要‍‍再次正告美方，‍‍中方正严阵以待，‍‍中国人民解放军‍‍绝不会坐视不管，”就佩洛西可能访台的问题，中国外交部发言人赵立坚在北京对记者表示，“中方‍‍必将采取坚决应对和有力反制措施，‍‍捍卫自身主权‍‍和领土完整。‍‍” But for now, at least, the Communist Party’s main newspapers have not published editorials about Ms. Pelosi’s possible visit that would signal a major escalation; nor has the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued anything like the authoritative statement that deepened a standoff over Taiwan in 1995. 但至少就目前而言，中共主流报纸尚未发表关于佩洛西可能访台的社论，那将预示着矛盾的重大升级；中国外交部也没有发表过类似1995年那样的威吓式声明，加剧在台湾问题上的对峙。 1997年，时任众议院议长的纽特·金里奇与台湾总统李登辉会面。佩洛西可能成为金里奇访台之后，前往该岛最高级别的美国官员。 POOL PHOTO BY EDDIE SHIHWhile Mr. Xi seems not to want to court a crisis, said Bonnie S. Glaser, the director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, “if P.L.A. aircraft approach Taiwan in ways that differ from the past, and if they enter into Taiwan’s territorial airspace, an incident could happen, whether Xi wants one or not.” 总部设于美国的德国马歇尔基金会亚洲项目主任葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)表示，虽然习近平看似不愿挑起危机，但“如果解放军飞机以不同以往的方式接近台湾，如果它们进入台湾领空，那不管习近平的意愿如何，都有可能发生严重事件”。 In the rolling Taiwan crisis of 1995-96, China held military exercises off Taiwan, and the United States sent naval ships to deter China. Beijing was irate after the Clinton administration allowed Taiwan’s president, Lee Teng-hui, to visit the United States, and Chinese leaders conducted menacing missile tests in what appeared to be an effort to hurt Mr. Lee in Taiwan’s 1996 presidential election. Instead, he won. 在1995年至1996年持续不断的台湾危机中，中国在台湾海域举行了军事演习，而美国则派遣海军舰艇威慑中国。克林顿政府允许台湾总统李登辉访美，令北京勃然大怒；中国领导人则进行了威胁性导弹试验，这似乎是为了阻挠李登辉赢得1996年的总统大选。结果，他还是胜选了。 Back then, Mr. Xi was an official in Fujian Province, facing Taiwan, and often courted investors from the island. He became the top political officer of a People’s Liberation Army reserve antiaircraft division there in 1996, after he had become deputy party secretary of the province. 当时，习近平是福建省的一名官员，该省与台湾隔海相望，经常向来自台湾的投资者示好。1996年，在担任福建省委副书记后，习近平成为了解放军高炮预备役师第一政委。 “We must clearly understand the severe direction of struggle in the Taiwan Strait,” Mr. Xi told division officers in 2001, according to a China News Service report at the time. “Only by really preparing to fight is peace possible.” “要清醒认识台海斗争的严峻形势，”据当时中国新闻网的一篇报道，习近平在2001年这样告诉该部队的军官。“只有真正做好‘打’的准备，才有‘和’的可能。” 美国海岸警卫队公布的一张照片显示，去年在台湾海峡的美国军舰。 U.S. COAST GUARD, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESSEven if Ms. Pelosi cancels her visit or it passes without crisis, many experts believe that rising tensions over the future of the island make conflict increasingly likely in coming years. 即使佩洛西取消访台，或是访台之行没有遇到危机，许多专家仍认为，在该岛屿未来问题上日益紧张的局势使得今后几年爆发冲突的可能性越来越大。 Mr. Xi has laid out eventual unification with Taiwan as one of his guiding goals for China’s “national rejuvenation” as a modern, unified superpower. He has said he wants to absorb Taiwan peacefully at some unspecified time in the future, but does not rule out force. China’s military modernization is approaching a point where an invasion of the island is conceivable, though still daunting and risk filled. 习近平将最终统一台湾当作他的指导目标之一，以实现“民族复兴”，也就是让中国成为一个现代的、统一的超级大国。他曾表示，希望在未来某个时间和平拿下台湾，但并不排除动武。中国的军事现代化正在接近把入侵该岛当作可实现目标的程度，尽管这一任务依然令人生畏、充满风险。 “The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation won’t be an effortless task achieved just by fanfare of gongs and drums,” he told officials in Beijing last week in a theme-setting speech for the party congress. “中华民族伟大复兴不是轻轻松松、敲锣打鼓就能实现的，”他上周在北京的二十大专题研讨班上对官员们表示。 Mr. Biden told reporters last month that “the military thinks it’s not a good idea right now” for Ms. Pelosi to go to Taiwan, and administration officials are said to have tried to persuade her not to visit. After Mr. Biden’s phone call with Mr. Xi last week, the U.S. account of the exchange “suggested that Biden made clear he is not looking for a fight with China over Taiwan right now,” said Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former director for China on the National Security Council. 拜登上个月对记者表示，关于佩洛西访台一事，“军方认为现在这么做并不明智”，据说拜登政府官员也曾试图说服她不要去。在上周拜登与习近平通话后，美方对两人对话的描述“说明拜登明确了眼下不愿在台湾问题上挑衅中国的态度”，布鲁金斯学会高级研究员、曾在国家安全委员会任中国事务主任的何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)说道。 Even so, Mr. Hass says in a new paper, Beijing and Washington have grown increasingly distrustful over the other’s intentions toward Taiwan, and “communication channels for managing tensions have collapsed.” 尽管如此，何瑞恩在一篇新论文中写道，中美愈发不信任彼此对台湾的意图，“管理紧张局势的沟通渠道已经崩塌”。 上周，台湾在屏东举行军事演习。 LAM YIK FEI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESWashington officials, and many people in Taiwan, say that China’s efforts to exclude the island from international forums have deepened Taiwanese frustration with Beijing. They also say that increasing Chinese military activities around the island have only intensified residents’ misgivings about Mr. Xi. 华盛顿的官员和台湾许多人都表示，中国努力将台湾排挤出国际舞台的行为加深了台湾人对北京的不满。他们还说，中国在该岛屿附近的军事活动只会加剧民众对习近平的疑虑。 Policymakers in Beijing fault the United States. They say Washington increasingly pays only lip service to its “one China” policy, and has expanded military and political ties with Taipei far beyond what was agreed when Beijing and Washington established diplomatic relations in 1979. 北京的政策制定者将责任归咎于美国。他们说华盛顿对“一个中国”政策越来越停留在口头上，还把与台北的军事和政治联系扩大到远超中美1979年建交时的协议范畴。 “The Biden administration has continued the Trump administration’s strategy of ‘using Taiwan to contain China,’” Cao Qun, a researcher at the state-run China Institute of International Studies, wrote in a recent assessment. “The chances of a clash between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait are growing.” “拜登政府沿用了特朗普政府的‘以台制华’策略，”官方的中国国际问题研究院研究员曹群在最近的一篇分析中写道。“中美在台海冲突的可能性攀升。” Mr. Xi’s options to retaliate include holding menacing military exercises, perhaps in seas and skies closer to Taiwan. He could also send more planes and ships near Taiwan, including by crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, an informal boundary that Chinese forces cross only infrequently. 习近平的报复选项包括在靠近台湾的海域和天空进行威胁性军事演习。他还可以派遣更多飞机和船舰靠近台湾，不排除越过台湾海峡中线，这是中国军队很少越过的非正式边界。 After other American politicians and foreign delegations have visited Taiwan, Beijing has escalated flights into Taiwan’s “air defense identification zone,” an area that goes well beyond the island’s sovereign airspace, said Gerald Brown, a military analyst in Washington who collects and analyzes data on those flights. In November, China sent 27 military planes into the zone soon after U.S. lawmakers visited Taipei. 在华盛顿收集并分析相关飞行数据的军事研究员杰拉德·布朗表示，在其他美国政界人士和外国代表团访问台湾后，北京增派飞机进入台湾“防空识别区”，这一区域范围远大于台湾的主权领空。去年11月，在美国议员造访台北后不久，中国派出27架军机进入该识别区。 At an extreme, China could also fire missiles near Taiwan, as in 1996. Back then, though, China’s military was too weak to seriously threaten American forces across the region. If Mr. Xi did the same now, the global shock waves could be much bigger. 极端情况下，中国也能在台湾附近发射导弹，就像1996年的情况一样。不过，当时中国军事力量太弱，无法给整个地区的美军造成严重威胁。如果习近平现在采取同样的行动，对全球的冲击可能会大得多。 “I don’t think that up to now there have been any signs that China will launch major military operations,” said Kuo Yu-jen, a political science professor at the National Sun Yat-sen University in southern Taiwan. “If China overreacts, bringing countermeasures from the U.S. or Japan, for Xi Jinping, the losses would outweigh the gains.” “我认为到目前为止，还没有任何迹象表明中国将发动大规模军事行动，”台湾南部国立中山大学的政治学教授郭育仁表示。“如果中国反应过度，导致美国或日本采取反制措施，对习近平来说是得不偿失的。” Amy Chang Chien对本文有报道贡献。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@ChuBailiang。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道佩洛西开启亚洲行，是否访台引关注2022年8月1日 佩洛西访台计划加剧美国对台海担忧2022年7月26日 台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？2022年6月14日 中国防长：若分裂台湾，中国不惜一战2022年6月13日 美加速重塑台湾防卫，试图震慑中国2022年5月26日 最受欢迎若佩洛西访台成行，北京如何应对？ “政治雷区”：为何佩洛西拟议中的访台行程如此敏感 为什么佩洛西的访台计划无比鲁莽、不负责任 美方警告中国：不应把佩洛西潜在访台行程变成“冲突” 佩洛西访问亚洲多国，是否将前往台湾引关注 中国成功制造7纳米芯片，这意味着什么 中国市场神话破灭？在华外企谨慎调整增长预期 佩洛西不该在此时访问台湾 “与时间竞赛”：台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？ 《忧郁之岛》：历史中的政治抗争与现在的香港 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.