美方警告中国：不应把佩洛西潜在访台行程变成“冲突”U.S. Warns China Not to Turn Pelosi’s Expected Trip to Taiwan Into a ‘Crisis’PETER BAKER2022年8月2日 白宫官员私下表示担心，佩洛西访台会在亚洲触发危险的升级循环。 ANNA ROSE LAYDEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESWASHINGTON — The United States warned China on Monday not to respond to an expected trip to Taiwan by Speaker Nancy Pelosi with military provocations even as American officials sought to reassure Beijing that such a visit would not be the first of its kind nor represent any change in policy toward the region. 华盛顿——周一，美国警告中国不要以军事挑衅来回应众议院议长南希·佩洛西预计成行的访台之旅，尽管美国官员试图向北京保证，这样的访问并非开创先例，也不代表美国对该地区的政策有任何改变。 With tensions rising on the eve of Ms. Pelosi’s anticipated arrival in Taipei, the White House said it was concerned that China might fire missiles into the Taiwan Strait, send warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense zone or stage large-scale naval or air activities that cross traditional lines. 在佩洛西预计抵达台北的前夕，随着紧张局势升级，白宫表示，它担心中国可能会向台湾海峡发射导弹、派遣战机进入台湾的防空区，或是跨越传统边界的大规模海空活动。 “There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with longstanding U.S. policy into some sort of crisis or conflict, or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait,” John F. Kirby, a National Security Council spokesman, told reporters. “Meanwhile,” he added, “our actions are not threatening and they break no new ground. Nothing about this potential visit — potential visit, which oh, by the way, has precedent — would change the status quo.” “中国不应把与美国长期政策一致的潜在访问变成某种危机或冲突，或是以此为借口在台湾海峡内外增加侵略性的军事活动，”国家安全委员会发言人约翰·柯比对记者表示。“与此同时，”他补充道，“我们的行动不具威胁性，也没有打破老规矩。这次潜在访问——哦，顺便说一下，这是有先例的——根本不会改变现状。” But Beijing made clear it was not reassured. “We would like to tell the United States once again that China is standing by, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never sit idly by, and China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Zhao Lijian, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, told reporters. “As for what measures, if she dares to go, then let’s wait and see.” 但北京明确表示并不放心。“我们要再次正告美方，中方正严阵以待，中国人民解放军绝不会坐视不管，必将采取坚决应对和有力反制措施，捍卫自身主权和领土完整，”外交部发言人赵立坚对记者表示。“至于是什么措施，如果她敢去，那就让我们拭目以待。” The standoff over the speaker’s visit has set nerves on edge on both sides of the Pacific at a time when the United States is already consumed with helping Ukraine fight off Russia’s invasion. Even as they were trying to head off a confrontation in Asia on Monday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and other officials were announcing a new $550 million shipment of arms to Ukraine. 在美国忙于帮助乌克兰抵御俄罗斯入侵之际，议长出访导致的对峙僵局让太平洋两岸都紧张不已。周一，国务卿布林肯和其他官员在试图阻止亚洲发生冲突的同时，还宣布了向乌克兰运送价值5.5亿美元新武器的消息。 While military, intelligence and diplomatic officials who briefed Ms. Pelosi before she left for Asia cautioned that a stop in Taiwan might instigate a response that could escalate out of control, President Biden stopped short of urging her not to go out of deference to her status as head of a separate, equal branch of government. 在佩洛西启程前往亚洲之前，曾向她汇报情况的军事、情报和外交官员警告，访台激起的反应有可能使局势失控，但出于对她作为一个独立平等的政府部门领导人的尊重，拜登总统并没有敦促她不要去。 In a telephone call with President Xi Jinping of China last week, Mr. Biden explained that he did not control Ms. Pelosi and, as a longtime former member of Congress himself, respected her right to make her own decisions. But American officials fear that China does not accept that he has no power to stop her. 上周，拜登在与中国国家主席习近平通话时解释，他无法控制佩洛西的行动，因为他本人曾在国会任职多年，所以尊重她自主决策的权利。但美国官员担心，中国不接受他无权阻止佩洛西的说法。 Mr. Blinken stressed that point on Monday. “The speaker will make her own decisions about whether or not to visit Taiwan,” he said. “Congress is an independent, coequal branch of government. The decision is entirely the speaker’s. 布林肯周一也强调了这一点。“议长将自主决定是否出访台湾，”他说。“国会是一个独立平等的政府部门。这个决定完全在议长自己。” He added that members of Congress routinely go to Taiwan, including earlier this year. “And so if the speaker does decide to visit, and China tries to create some kind of crisis or otherwise escalate tensions, that would be entirely on Beijing,” Mr. Blinken said. “We are looking for them, in the event she decides to visit, to act responsibly and not to engage in any escalation going forward.” 他还表示，国会议员访问台湾很常见，今年早些时候也有议员成行。“因此，如果议长确实决定前往，而中国试图制造某种危机或以其他方式加剧紧张局势，那北京应负全责，”布林肯说。“如果她决定出访，我们希望中方采取负责任的行动，接下来不要将局势升级。” Ms. Pelosi, who arrived in Singapore on Monday, has not officially confirmed her plan to stop in Taiwan, citing security concerns. But local reports in Taiwan said officials there had been informed that she would arrive on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning local time. She originally planned to visit Taiwan in April but called off that trip after testing positive for the coronavirus. 周一抵达新加坡的佩洛西以安全考虑为由，尚未正式确认她在台湾停留的计划。但台湾当地媒体报道，台湾官员已获悉，她将于当地时间周二晚间或周三早上抵达。她原本计划在4月访台，但在新冠病毒检测呈阳性后取消了那次行程。 American officials monitoring intelligence reports have become convinced in recent days that China is preparing a hostile response of some sort — not an outright attack on Taiwan or an effort to intercept Ms. Pelosi’s plane, as some fear, but an assertion of military power that may go beyond even the aggressive encounters of recent months. Some cited the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1995 and 1996, when China fired missiles to intimidate the self-governing island and President Bill Clinton ordered aircraft carriers into area. 负责情报报告的美国官员最近几天确信，中国正在准备做出某种形式的敌对回应——不是像一些人担心的那样直接攻击台湾或试图拦截佩洛西女士的飞机，而是展示自己的军事力量，甚至可能超越最近几个月咄咄逼人的交锋。一些人提到了1995年和1996年的台海危机，当时中国发射导弹恐吓这个自治的岛屿，克林顿总统下令航空母舰进入该地区。 Analysts said a similar conflict could be vastly more perilous today because the People’s Liberation Army is far more robust than it was then, armed now with missiles that could take out carriers. The worry is that even if no combat is intended, an accidental encounter could easily spiral out of control. 分析人士表示，如今发生类似冲突，危险性可能会大得多，因为中国人民解放军比当时强大得多，现在它装备的导弹可以摧毁航母。令人担忧的是，即使没有作战意图，双方意外遭遇也很容易失控。 “This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine,” said Evan Medeiros, a China expert at Georgetown University and a former Asia adviser to President Barack Obama. “The risks of escalation are immediate and substantial.” “这是一个异常危险的局面，可能比乌克兰更危险，”乔治城大学中国问题专家、奥巴马总统的前亚洲顾问麦艾文(Evan Medeiros)说。“局势升级的风险紧迫而重大。” At the White House, Mr. Kirby did not say whether American intelligence agencies had detected any concrete indications of Chinese actions, but he was unusually specific in outlining the possible responses that the United States anticipated. 在白宫，柯比没有说美国情报机构是否发现了中国行动的具体迹象，但他详细概述了美国预期中国可能做出的反应。 White House officials have privately expressed concern that a visit by Ms. Pelosi would touch off a dangerous cycle of escalation in Asia at the same time Washington is already consumed with helping Ukraine fight off Russia’s invasion. Much of America’s military industrial complex is busy arming Ukraine, which could hamper efforts to bolster weapons shipments to Taiwan. 白宫官员私下里表示担心，佩洛西访台会在亚洲触发危险的升级循环，而与此同时，华盛顿还在忙着帮助乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的入侵。美国的大部分军工企业正忙于为乌克兰提供武器，这可能会阻碍向台湾运送武器的努力。 Mr. Kirby said American officials did not necessarily anticipate an attack by China in response but cautioned that the possible military demonstrations of force could touch off a conflict by mistake. “It does increase the risk of miscalculation, which could lead to unintended consequences,” Mr. Kirby said. 柯比表示，美国官员并非一定认为中国会发动攻击作为回应，但他警告，若进行武力展示可能会误触冲突。“这确实增加了误判的风险，可能会导致意想不到的后果，”柯比说。 He seemed particularly intent on getting the message through to Beijing that it should not view any visit by Ms. Pelosi as a fresh provocation by the United States since she would not be the first speaker to go there; Speaker Newt Gingrich stopped in Taiwan in 1997. Mr. Kirby also stressed repeatedly that the United States still subscribed to its one-China policy of not recognizing independence for Taiwan. 他似乎特别想向北京传达这样一个信息：不要把佩洛西的访问视为美国的新挑衅，因为她不是第一个前往那里的议长；1997年，时任众议员议长的纽特·金里奇曾到访台湾。柯比还多次强调，美国仍然坚持不承认台湾独立的“一个中国”政策。 “We’ve laid out very clearly if she goes — if she goes — it’s not without precedent,” he said. “It’s not new. It doesn’t change anything.” “我们已经非常清楚地阐明，如果她前往——如果她前往的话——这并非没有先例，”他说。“这并不新鲜。这不会改变任何东西。” While White House officials held out little hope of deterring Beijing, they opted to outline the possible Chinese responses to set the geopolitical ground in case there is a provocation so it will not come as a surprise. 尽管白宫官员对制止北京不抱多大希望，但他们选择概述中国可能做出的反应，做好地缘政治方面的准备，一旦出现挑衅，就不会来得太突然。 But even if they get past the immediate conflict without escalation, officials worry that the dispute will accelerate an increasingly assertive posture by China, which has been moving in that direction in recent months anyway. Analysts said Mr. Xi cannot afford to look weak heading into a critical party congress in November when he will seek a third term. 但是，即使在没有升级的情况下度过了眼前的冲突，官员们担心，这一争端将强化中国日益强硬的姿态，毕竟最近几个月，中国一直在朝着这个方向发展。分析人士表示，在11月举行的重要党代会上，习近平不能看起来软弱，届时他将寻求第三个任期。 Just as Mr. Xi’s domestic politics were a factor, so were Mr. Biden’s and Ms. Pelosi’s. Even if the speaker wanted to cancel her stop in Taiwan, it would be problematic at home because it would be viewed as an act of appeasement with a revanchist power. Republicans have been particularly vocal in encouraging her to proceed with the trip regardless of the Biden administration’s qualms. 正如习近平面对的国内政治是其中一个因素，拜登和佩洛西面对的国内政治也是如此。即使议长想取消对台访问，在国内也会产生问题，因为这将被视为对一个复仇主义国家的绥靖行为。共和党人一直特别直言不讳地鼓励她不要理睬拜登政府的顾虑，继续此行。 Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, said that China should not push the United States over her trip. “I pray leaders of the Communist Party of #China will remember ancient but wise advice,” he wrote on Twitter, citing an aphorism, “When anger arises think of the consequences.” 佛罗里达州共和党参议员马尔科·卢比奥说，中国不应该就她的访问逼迫美国。他在Twitter上写道：“我祈祷#中国共产党领导人能记住古老而明智的建议，”他引用了一句格言，“愤怒时要考虑后果。” “We may have deep domestic political differences,” he added, “but we will respond with unbreakable unity if threatened from abroad.” “我们国内可能存在严重的政治分歧，”他补充说，“但如果受到来自国外的威胁，我们将以坚不可摧的团结来应对。” Peter Baker是时报首席白宫记者，为时报和《华盛顿邮报》报道了五位美国总统的新闻。他还著有六本书，最新的一本是《管理华盛顿的人：詹姆斯·A·贝克三世的生活和时代》(The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III)。欢迎在Twitter和Faceboook上关注他。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道若佩洛西访台成行，北京如何应对？2022年8月2日 佩洛西开启亚洲行，是否访台引关注2022年8月1日 为何佩洛西拟议中的访台行程如此敏感2022年8月1日 佩洛西访台计划加剧美国对台海担忧2022年7月26日 最受欢迎若佩洛西访台成行，北京如何应对？ “政治雷区”：为何佩洛西拟议中的访台行程如此敏感 为什么佩洛西的访台计划无比鲁莽、不负责任 美方警告中国：不应把佩洛西潜在访台行程变成“冲突” 佩洛西访问亚洲多国，是否将前往台湾引关注 中国成功制造7纳米芯片，这意味着什么 中国市场神话破灭？在华外企谨慎调整增长预期 佩洛西不该在此时访问台湾 “与时间竞赛”：台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？ 《忧郁之岛》：历史中的政治抗争与现在的香港 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.