专栏作者为什么佩洛西的访台计划无比鲁莽、不负责任Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless托马斯·弗里德曼2022年8月2日 DAMON WINTER/THE NEW YORK TIMESI have a lot of respect for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But if she does go ahead with a visit to Taiwan this week, against President Biden’s wishes, she will be doing something that is utterly reckless, dangerous and irresponsible. 我十分尊重众议院议长南希·佩洛西。但她若是不顾拜登总统的意愿，执意于本周访台，那将是无比鲁莽、危险且不负责任的举动。 Nothing good will come of it. Taiwan will not be more secure or more prosperous as a result of this purely symbolic visit, and a lot of bad things could happen. These include a Chinese military response that could result in the U.S. being plunged into indirect conflicts with a nuclear-armed Russia and a nuclear-armed China at the same time. 这么做不会有任何好结果。台湾不会因为这种纯粹象征意义的访问而变得更加安全或者更加繁荣，还可能因此招致许多恶果。其中包括中国的军事回应，这可能导致美国同时陷入与拥有核武器的俄罗斯和中国的间接冲突。 And if you think our European allies — who are facing an existential war with Russia over Ukraine — will join us if there is U.S. conflict with China over Taiwan, triggered by this unnecessary visit, you are badly misreading the world. 如果你认为，一旦这次不必要的访问导致美国在台湾问题上与中国爆发冲突，我们那些因乌克兰问题正与俄罗斯展开生死战的欧洲盟友会帮忙，你就严重误读了这个世界。 Let’s start with the indirect conflict with Russia, and how Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan now looms over it. 这先要从与俄罗斯的间接冲突说起，以及佩洛西现在访台将如何影响这场冲突。 There are moments in international relations when you need to keep your eyes on the prize. Today that prize is crystal clear: We must ensure that Ukraine is able, at a minimum, to blunt — and, at a maximum, reverse — Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion, which if it succeeds will pose a direct threat to the stability of the whole European Union. 在处理国际关系的某些时候，你得把精力放在主要目标上。眼下的主要目标再明确不过：我们必须确保乌克兰至少有能力削弱——最好的情况则是逆转——普京师出无名的入侵，如果俄罗斯取得成功，将会直接威胁到整个欧盟的稳定。 To help create the greatest possibility of Ukraine reversing Putin’s invasion, Biden and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan held a series of very tough meetings with China’s leadership, imploring Beijing not to enter the Ukraine conflict by providing military assistance to Russia — and particularly now, when Putin’s arsenal has been diminished by five months of grinding war. 为了帮助乌克兰尽可能逆转普京的侵略，拜登和他的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文与中国领导层进行了一系列非常艰难的会谈，恳请北京不要通过向俄罗斯提供军事援助而介入乌克兰冲突——此时尤其关键，因为普京的军事力量已被长达五个月的苦战削弱。 Biden, according to a senior U.S. official, personally told President Xi Jinping that if China entered the war in Ukraine on Russia’s side, Beijing would be risking access to its two most important export markets — the United States and the European Union. (China is one of the best countries in the world at manufacturing drones, which are precisely what Putin’s troops need most right now.) 据一位美国高级官员称，拜登亲口告诉习近平主席，如果在乌战中支持俄罗斯，中国将面临美国和欧盟这两个最重要的出口市场对其关闭的风险。（中国是全球无人机技术最强大的国家之一，而无人机正是普京的军队眼下最需要的工具。） By all indications, U.S. officials tell me, China has responded by not providing military aid to Putin — at a time when the U.S. and NATO have been giving Ukraine intelligence support and a significant number of advanced weapons that have done serious damage to the military of Russia, China’s ostensible ally. 美国官员告诉我，种种迹象表明，中国的回应是不向普京提供军事援助——当时美国和北约一直在向乌克兰提供情报和大量先进武器，让俄罗斯这个中国的表面盟友在军事上损失惨重。 Given all of that, why in the world would the speaker of the House choose to visit Taiwan and deliberately provoke China now, becoming the most senior U.S. official to visit Taiwan since Newt Gingrich in 1997, when China was far weaker economically and militarily? 鉴于以上种种，众议院议长到底为何要选现在出访台湾，故意挑衅中国，成为自1997年——当时中国经济和军事实力远不如今——的纽特·金里奇之后访台的最高级美国官员呢？ The timing could not be worse. Dear reader: The Ukraine war is not over. And privately, U.S. officials are a lot more concerned about Ukraine’s leadership than they are letting on. There is deep mistrust between the White House and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky — considerably more than has been reported. 这个时机不能更糟了。亲爱的读者，乌克兰战争并未结束。而且，美国官员私下里对乌克兰领导层的担忧远比他们表现出来的多。白宫与乌克兰总统泽连斯基之间存在深刻的不信任——比媒体报道的情况严重得多。 And there is funny business going on in Kyiv. On July 17, Zelensky fired his country’s prosecutor general and the leader of its domestic intelligence agency — the most significant shake-up in his government since the Russian invasion in February. It would be the equivalent of Biden firing Merrick Garland and Bill Burns on the same day. But I have still not seen any reporting that convincingly explains what that was all about. It is as if we don’t want to look too closely under the hood in Kyiv for fear of what corruption or antics we might see, when we have invested so much there. (More on the dangers of that another day.) 基辅目前的情况也是耐人寻味。7月17日，泽连斯基解除了乌克兰检察总长和情报机关负责人的职务——这是自2月俄罗斯入侵之后，泽连斯基政府内部最重大的人事调整，相当于拜登在同一天解雇了梅里克·加兰和比尔·伯恩斯。但我尚未看到任何报道能令人信服地解释这到底是怎么回事。就好像我们不愿意太仔细地探究基辅内幕，因为担心可能会看到腐败或离谱的行为，毕竟我们已经对那里投入了太多。（改天再谈这件事的危险性。） Meanwhile, senior U.S. officials still believe that Putin is quite prepared to consider using a small nuclear weapon against Ukraine if he sees his army facing certain defeat. 与此同时，美国高官仍然认为，假如普京发现他的军队面临必败结果，他会考虑对乌克兰使用小型核武器。 In short, this Ukraine war is SO not over, SO not stable, SO not without dangerous surprises that can pop out on any given day. Yet in the middle of all of this we are going to risk a conflict with China over Taiwan, provoked by an arbitrary and frivolous visit by the speaker of the House? 简而言之，这场乌战远没有到结束的时候，局势远没有到稳定的时候，危险的意外随时都可能发生。但就在这种情况下，我们还要冒着因台湾问题与中国起冲突的风险，而这都是由众议院议长一次武断轻率的访问所导致？ It is Geopolitics 101 that you don’t court a two-front war with the other two superpowers at the same time. 不能同时与两个超级大国进行两线作战，这是地缘政治最基本的原理。 Now, let’s turn to the potential for an indirect conflict with China, and how Pelosi’s visit could trigger it. 现在，让我们来谈谈与中国发生间接冲突的可能性，以及佩洛西的访问将如何引发冲突。 According to Chinese news reports, Xi told Biden on their phone call last week, alluding to U.S. involvement in Taiwan’s affairs, such as a possible Pelosi visit, “whoever plays with fire will get burnt.” 根据中国新闻报道，习近平上周在通话时告诉拜登，“玩火必自焚”，意指美国对台湾事务的介入，比如佩洛西的可能访问。 Biden’s national security team made clear to Pelosi, a longtime advocate for human rights in China, why she should not go to Taiwan now. But the president did not call her directly and ask her not to go, apparently worried he would look soft on China, leaving an opening for Republicans to attack him before the midterms. 拜登的国家安全团队向长期倡导中国人权的佩洛西明确阐明了她目前不应前往台湾的原因。但总统并没有直接给她打电话要求她不要前去，显然是担心这会让他在中国问题上显得软弱，从而为共和党人在中期选举前攻击他留下机会。 It is a measure of our political dysfunction that a Democratic president cannot deter a Democratic House speaker from engaging in a diplomatic maneuver that his entire national security team — from the C.I.A. director to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs — deemed unwise. 一个民主党总统无法阻止一个民主党众议院议长采取他的整个国家安全团队——从中央情报局局长到参谋长联席会议主席——认为不明智的外交策略，这是我们政治功能失调的体现。 To be sure, there is an argument that Biden should just call Xi’s bluff, back Pelosi to the hilt and tell Xi that if he threatens Taiwan in any way, it’s China that “will get burnt.” 当然，也有一种观点认为拜登应该直接向习近平喊话，全力支持佩洛西，并告诉习近平，如果他以任何方式威胁台湾，“自焚的是中国。” That might work. It might even feel good for a day. It also might start World War III. 这可能会奏效。甚至可能带来一天的好心情。这也可能引发第三次世界大战。 In my view, Taiwan should have just asked Pelosi not to come at this time. I so admire Taiwan and the economy and democracy that it has built since the end of World War II. I have visited Taiwan numerous times over the last 30 years and have personally witnessed how much has changed in Taiwan in that time — so much. 在我看来，台湾应该直接要求佩洛西在这个时候不要来。我非常钦佩台湾，以及它自“二战”结束以来建立起来的经济和民主。在过去的30年里，我去过台湾无数次，亲眼目睹了那里发生的众多巨大变化。 But there is one thing that has not changed for Taiwan: Its geography! 但是有一件事对于台湾来说没有改变：它的地理位置！ Taiwan is still a tiny island nation, now with 23 million people, roughly 100 miles off the coast of a giant mainland China, with 1.4 billion people, who claim Taiwan as part of the Chinese motherland. Countries that forget their geography get in trouble. 台湾仍然是一个小小的岛国，现在有2300万人口，距离有14亿人口的巨大中国大陆海岸大约130公里。中国大陆宣称台湾是中国的一部分。忘记地理位置的国家会陷入麻烦。 Do not mistake this for pacifism on my part. I believe it is a vital U.S. national interest to defend Taiwan’s democracy, in the event of an unprovoked Chinese invasion. 不要误以为我是在搞和平主义。我相信，一旦中国无故入侵台湾，捍卫台湾的民主是美国至关重要的国家利益。 But if we are going to get into a conflict with Beijing, at least let it be on our timing and our issues. Our issues are China’s increasingly aggressive behavior on a wide range of fronts — from cyberintrusions to intellectual property theft to military maneuvers in the South China Sea. 但如果我们要与北京发生冲突，至少让它按照我们的日程和关切进行。我们的关切是中国在各个领域越来越咄咄逼人的行为——从网络入侵到知识产权盗窃，再到南海的军事演习。 That said, this is not the time for poking at China, especially considering what a sensitive time it is in Chinese politics. Xi is on the eve of locking in an indefinite extension of his role as China’s leader at the 20th Communist Party Congress, expected to be this fall. The Chinese Communist Party has always made clear that reunification of Taiwan and mainland China is its “historical task,” and, since coming to power in 2012, Xi has steadily and recklessly underscored his commitment to that task with aggressive military maneuvers around Taiwan. 也就是说，现在不是刺激中国的时候，尤其是考虑到现在是中国政治的敏感时期。习近平即将在预计今年秋天召开的中国共产党第二十次代表大会上锁定其作为中国领导人的无限任期。中国共产党一直明确表示，台湾和中国大陆的统一是其“历史任务”，而且，自2012年上台以来，习近平一直稳步地、不顾一切地通过在台湾周围进行积极的军事演习，以此强调他对这项任务的承诺。 By visiting, Pelosi will actually give Xi an opportunity to divert attention from his own failures — a whack-a-mole strategy of trying to shut down the spread of Covid-19 by using lockdowns of China’s major cities, a huge real estate bubble that is now deflating and threatening a banking crisis and an immense mountain of government debt resulting from Xi’s unrestrained support for state-owned industries. 通过访问，佩洛西实际上给了习近平一个机会，可以让他转移人们的注意力，不再关注他的失败——通过封锁中国主要城市来阻止新冠蔓延；巨大的房地产泡沫已经出现破裂的迹象，并有可能制造银行危机；以及由于习近平无限制地支持国有产业而产生的巨大的政府债务。 I seriously doubt that Taiwan’s current leadership, in its heart of hearts, wants this Pelosi visit now. Anyone who has followed the cautious behavior of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, since her election in 2016, has to be impressed by her consistent efforts to defend Taiwan’s independence while not giving China an easy excuse for military action against Taiwan. 我严重怀疑台湾目前的领导层在内心深处是不是真的希望佩洛西在现在这个时候进行访问。台湾总统蔡英文自2016年当选以来，一直非常谨慎，任何有在留意的人，都会被她在捍卫台湾独立的同时不给中国提供对台军事行动轻松借口的一贯努力所打动。 Alas, I fear that the growing consensus in Xi’s China is that the Taiwan question can only be resolved militarily, but China wants to do it on its own schedule. Our goal should be to deter China from such a military endeavor on OUR schedule — which is forever. 唉，我害怕的是，在习近平的中国，人们日益形成这样的共识：台湾问题只能通过军事手段解决，但中国想按照自己的时间表来解决。我们的目标应该是按照我们的时间表——也就是永远——阻止中国这样的军事行动。 But the best way to do that is to arm Taiwan into what military analysts call a “porcupine” — a country bristling with so many missiles that China would never want to lay hands on it — while saying and doing as little as possible to provoke China into thinking that it MUST lay hands on it now. Pursuing anything else than that balanced approach would be an awful mistake, with vast and unpredictable consequences. 但最好的办法是把台湾武装成军事分析家所说的“豪猪”——一个到处都是导弹的国家，以至于中国绝对不想要侵犯它——同时尽可能少说少做，不要激怒中国，让中国认为它现在必须动手。除了这种平衡的方法，其他举动都会是可怕的错误，会带来巨大而不可预测的后果。 托马斯·L·弗里德曼(Thomas L. Friedman)是外交事务方面的专栏作者。他1981年加入时报，曾三次获得普利策奖。他著有七本书，包括赢得国家图书奖的《从贝鲁特到耶路撒冷》(From Beirut to Jerusalem)。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道美国：中国不应把佩洛西行程变成冲突2022年8月2日 若佩洛西访台成行，北京如何应对？2022年8月2日 为何佩洛西拟议中的访台行程如此敏感2022年8月1日 台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？2022年6月14日 最受欢迎若佩洛西访台成行，北京如何应对？ “政治雷区”：为何佩洛西拟议中的访台行程如此敏感 美方警告中国：不应把佩洛西潜在访台行程变成“冲突” 为什么佩洛西的访台计划无比鲁莽、不负责任 佩洛西访问亚洲多国，是否将前往台湾引关注 中国成功制造7纳米芯片，这意味着什么 中国市场神话破灭？在华外企谨慎调整增长预期 佩洛西不该在此时访问台湾 “与时间竞赛”：台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？ 《忧郁之岛》：历史中的政治抗争与现在的香港 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.