惩罚佩洛西访台，中国用军事演习锻炼封锁台湾能力More Than a Show: China’s Exercises Could Help It Practice Seizing Taiwan储百亮, AMY CHANG CHIEN2022年8月4日 周四，中国军方的直升机飞离福建海岸，对岸便是台湾。 HECTOR RETAMAL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESA day after Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan, celebrating it as a bulwark of democracy, China launched three days of military exercises around the island, which it's force may use to press in closer than ever, honing their abilities to impose a blockade. 在美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西访台并赞誉台湾为民主堡垒的第二天，中国启动了为期三天的军事演习，该国军队可能会比以往任何时候都更加迫近，锻炼他们对该岛实施封锁的能力。 A barrage of Chinese propaganda said the drills, which started at midday Thursday, would serve as punishment for Ms. Pelosi’s visit, and as a shock-and-awe deterrent against opponents of Beijing’s claims to the self-ruled island. But more than that, the six exercise zones that the People’s Liberation Army has marked out in seas off Taiwan — one nudging less than 10 miles off its southern coast — could give Chinese forces valuable practice, should they one day be ordered to encircle and attack the island. 中国的一系列宣传称，周四中午开始的演习将作为对佩洛西访问的惩罚，并震慑那些不认可北京对该自治岛屿的主权主张的人。但这次军演还有更多的作用，中国人民解放军在台湾海域划定了六个演习区，其中一个距离台湾南部海岸不到16公里，如果有一天中国军队奉命包围台湾并攻击，这些演习可能会给中国军队提供宝贵的实践机会。 “Use the momentum to surround,” read a slogan used by People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s main newspaper, as it announced that the drills had begun. Taiwanese military observers said they did not detect any immediate upsurge in Chinese naval activities. 中国共产党的主要报纸《人民日报》在宣布演习开始时使用的一个口号是“顺势而围”。台湾军事观察人士表示，他们暂时没有发现中国海军活动突然增多的迹象。 The six zones were chosen for their importance in a potential campaign to seal off Taiwan and thwart foreign intervention, Major General Meng Xiangqing, a professor of strategy at the National Defense University in Beijing, said in an interview on Chinese state television. One zone covers the narrowest part of the Taiwan Strait. Others could be used to block a major port or attack three of Taiwan’s main military bases, he said. 中国国防大学战略学教授孟祥青少将在接受中国国家电视台采访时说，选择这六个区域是因为它们在封锁台湾和挫败外国干预的潜在行动中具有重要意义。一个区域覆盖了台湾海峡最窄的部分。他说，其它区域可以用来封锁一个主要港口或攻击台湾的三个主要军事基地。 广告 The zone near Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan, where there are crucial bases, “creates conditions to bolt the door and beat the dog,” said General Meng, using a Chinese saying that refers to blocking an enemy’s escape route. 靠近台湾南部高雄的区域能够“创造关门打狗之势”，孟祥青说，其中使用了中国的一句俗语，意思是阻断敌人的退路。高雄有很多重要的军事基地。 China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has said that he hopes to eventually unify Taiwan through peaceful steps. But like his predecessors, he has not ruled out force, and China’s military buildup has reached a point where some military commanders and analysts think an invasion is an increasingly plausible, though still highly risky, scenario. The exercises could help Chinese forces test their readiness for that. 中国领导人习近平曾表示，他希望通过和平手段最终统一台湾。但与他的前任一样，他并未排除使用武力的可能性，而且中国的军力建设已经达到一定程度，以至于一些军事指挥官和分析人士认为入侵的可能性越来越大，尽管风险依然很高。演习可以帮助中国军队测试他们的准备情况。 “They’re definitely going to use this as an excuse to do something that helps them prepare for a possible invasion,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University who studies China’s military and its potential to attack Taiwan. “他们肯定会以此为借口做一些事情，帮助他们为可能的入侵做准备，”研究中国军事及其攻台可能性的斯坦福大学弗里曼·史波格利国际研究所研究员梅惠琳说。 “It’s not just about the messaging,” she said. “Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test their ability to conduct complex maneuvers that are necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.” “这不仅仅是关于传达讯息，”她说。“在发出信号的幌子下，他们实际上在试图测试对台湾进行两栖攻击所必需的复杂调动的能力。” It remains unclear how close Chinese forces will come to Taiwan during the exercises, which are scheduled to end on Sunday.. In one possible sign of what to expect, China’s Liberation Army Daily said on Thursday that the Eastern Theater Command was holding its own practice operations that included the navy, air force and rocket force. They were focused on “joint enclosure and control,” assaults on sea and land, and air domination operations, it said. 演习将于周日结束，目前尚不清楚在演习期间中国军队会离台湾多近。中国《解放军报》周四的报道预示了接下来会发生什么，东部战区正在实施自己的演习行动，其中包括海军、空军和火箭军，并专注于“联合封控”，对海突击、对陆打击、制空作战等演练。 The Chinese military could also test Taiwan’s responses by firing into the territorial waters directly off its coast. Three of the exercise zones have corners jutting into those waters. 中国军方也可以通过直接向台湾海岸附近领海开火来测试其反应。有三个演习区的犄角伸入这些水域。 “It signals that, since Taiwan is part of China, it doesn’t get a 12-nautical-mile zone,” said William Overholt, a senior research fellow at the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at Harvard University, referring to the sea perimeter by which Taiwan defines its territorial waters. “Taiwan either has to defend its zone like an independent country or cave.” “它发出的信号是台湾是中国的一部分，不享有12海里区，”哈佛大学阿什民主治理和创新中心高级研究员威廉·奥弗霍尔特说，他指的是台湾界定领海的基线。“台湾要么必须像独立国家一样保卫自己的区域，要么就让步。” 周三在北京，国家电视台播放了据称是一架中国战斗机在台湾附近飞行的视频。 THOMAS PETER/REUTERSKinmen Island, a Taiwanese-controlled island a little over six miles off China’s coast, reported that on Wednesday night, flying objects of unclear origin — probably drones — flew overhead. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said that its website was paralyzed by “denial of service” cyberattacks late on Wednesday night. 据报道，周三晚上，由台湾控制、距离中国海岸约10公里的金门岛有来源不明的飞行器飞过，可能是无人机。台湾外交部表示，其网站由于周三晚间的“拒绝服务”网络攻击而瘫痪。 China is trying to reinforce its influence over Taiwan by upgrading deterrence after the visit by Ms. Pelosi, who praised the island’s people for standing strong against Beijing, several Chinese analysts said. 佩洛西访台期间称赞台湾人民坚决反对北京。几位中国分析人士说，在佩洛西访台后，中国正试图通过升级威慑来加强其对台湾的影响力。 广告 “The tendency of external forces exploiting Taiwan to contain China has become increasingly clear,” Wu Yongping, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing who studies Taiwan, said in written answers to questions. “The Chinese government has adopted some unprecedented military operations in response to this.” “外部势力利用台湾遏制中国的势头也越来越明显，”北京清华大学研究台湾的教授巫永平在书面回答问题时说。“中国政府采取了一些之前没有的军事行动应对这一情况。” One of the People’s Liberation Army’s designated exercise zones lies off the eastern coast of Taiwan, at the farthest point from the Chinese mainland. When China held intimidating military exercises off Taiwan during a crisis 25 years ago, the People’s Liberation Army, or P.L.A., did not go that far. 解放军的其中一个指定演习区位于台湾东海岸，是距中国大陆最远的一个地点。在25年前的危机中，解放军在台湾海域举行恐吓性的军事演习没有抵达这么远的地方。 “It’s an intentional message meant to highlight the P.L.A.’s heightened capacity to project power farther from the Chinese mainland, and it’s a visible signal that China can surround the island,” said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It will also complicate traffic to and around the island from all sides.” “这是一个有意传达的讯息，旨在强调解放军在远离中国大陆的地方投送力量的能力已经提高，这是一个明显的信号，表明中国可以包围该岛，”战略和国际研究中心中国力量项目研究员布赖恩·哈特说。“这也将使岛屿周围各个方向的交通变得复杂。” 周四，基隆港停靠的台湾海军舰艇。这里距离中国实施军演的一个区域不远。 SAM YEH/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESGlobal Times, a swaggeringly nationalist Chinese newspaper, raised the possibility of missiles being fired from the mainland into that eastern zone, arcing over Taiwan. “If the Taiwan military responds, the Liberation Army is entirely able to trap the turtle in the jar,” one Chinese commentator, Zhang Xuefeng, told the paper, using a Chinese saying for catching prey with ease. 中国民族主义报纸《环球时报》提出了从大陆向这个东部区域发射导弹、从台湾上空飞过的可能性。中国评论人士张学峰告诉该报，并引用一个中国成语：“一旦台军有所应对，解放军完全可以‘瓮中捉鳖’”。 But Mr. Hart said China was unlikely to fire missiles over Taiwan. “That would be extremely escalatory,” he said. “They will more likely fire ship-based or air-launched missiles into that area without flying missiles over the island.” 但哈特表示，中国不太可能在台湾上空发射导弹。“这将是极端升级事件，”他说。“他们可能不会发射导弹飞越该岛，而是向演习区发射舰载或空射导弹。” After decades of tensions and several military crises with China, many on Taiwan have become inured to threats. But even if China does not take the most potentially incendiary steps this time, experts and officials on the island worry that the operations could spark an incident — a collision at sea or in the air, or a misfired missile — that inflames tensions into a full-fledged crisis. 经过几十年的紧张局势和与中国的几次军事危机，台湾的许多人已经习惯了威胁。但即使中国这次没有采取最具潜在煽动性的手段，岛上的专家和官员仍担心这些行动可能引发事件——海上或空中相撞，或导弹失灵——将紧张局势升级为全面爆发的危机。 广告 A monitoring service run by the U.S. Naval Institute reported on Monday that a strike group led by the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier was in the Philippine Sea, some distance east of Taiwan, and that the U.S.S. Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship, was also in that area. 美国海军研究所的一项监测服务周一报告说，以罗纳德·里根号航空母舰为首的一个打击群在台湾以东的菲律宾海上，而的黎波里号两栖突击舰也在该地区。 “Previously, the Chinese Communists carried out military exercises at a distance, now they’ve become close-up,” Chang Yan-ting, a retired deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force, said in an interview. “以前中共实行远距军演，现在已经成为抵近军演，”前台湾空军副司令张延廷在采访中说。 “The Chinese military exercises around Taiwan will put our national military in a very dangerous position,” he said. “They’re already at our doorstep.” “中国环台军演会让国军处在一个非常危险的情况，”他说。“他们已经在门口。” Jane Perlez和John Liu对本文有报道贡献。Claire Fu对本文有研究贡献。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@ChuBailiang。 Amy Chang Chien在台湾为《纽约时报》报道中国大陆和台湾新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她： @amy_changchien。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道中国“锁台军演”，美国担忧擦枪走火2022年8月4日 中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？2022年8月3日 佩洛西访台唤醒台海危机记忆2022年8月3日 台湾人如何看待佩洛西访台行程？2022年8月2日 台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？2022年6月14日 最受欢迎中国真的能“武统”台湾吗？ 佩洛西访台或削弱美国与亚太盟友统一战线 中国进行“锁台军演”，美国官员担忧擦枪走火 万众瞩目的航班：佩洛西专机为何绕行一圈才抵达台湾？ 为什么佩洛西的访台计划无比鲁莽、不负责任 面对一个恃强凌弱的中国，佩洛西不应退缩 佩洛西访台唤醒台海危机记忆 台湾人如何看待佩洛西访台行程？ 佩洛西访问台湾立法院，与蔡英文会面 佩洛西抵达台湾，美国官员25年来对台最高级别访问 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.