“政治雷区”：为何佩洛西拟议中的访台行程如此敏感Why Pelosi’s Proposed Taiwan Visit Is Raising U.S.-China TensionsJANE PERLEZ2022年8月1日 1月，拜登总统与众议院议长南希·佩洛西在国会会面。 AL DRAGO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESTaiwan, an island of 23 million people 80 miles off the coast of China, has long been a point of tension between Washington and Beijing. Now those tensions are at a new high. 台湾是一个有2300万人口的岛屿，距离中国海岸约130公里，长期以来一直是华盛顿和北京之间的紧张点。这种紧张关系现在达到了新高度。 House Speaker Nancy Pelosi set off from California on Saturday to begin a tour of several Asian nations that may include a stop in Taiwan. Ms. Pelosi would be the highest level American official to go to the island since 1997 when Newt Gingrich made a visit. 众议院议长佩洛西周六从加利福尼亚州出发，开始对几个亚洲国家进行访问，可能会在台湾停留。她有可能成为1997年纽特·金里奇访台以来访问该岛级别最高的美国官员。 China claims Taiwan, a self-governing island democracy, as its territory, and has vowed to take it back, by force if necessary. In his call with President Biden on Thursday, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, sharply warned the United States against intervening in the dispute. Beijing has vigorously protested Ms. Pelosi’s potential trip there, warning of unspecified consequences for the United States. 中国宣称自治的民主岛屿台湾为其领土，并誓言将在必要时动用武力收回台湾。在周四与拜登总统的通话中，中国领导人习近平严厉警告美国不要干预这一争端。北京强烈抗议佩洛西可能的访问，并警告此举将给美国带来未指明的后果。 台北市的景色。 LAM YIK FEI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESIts warnings have reverberated through the Pentagon, and the Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, where American military officials have been tasked with protecting Ms. Pelosi, as well as assessing what China could do militarily in response to her visit. Taiwan, the world’s leading producer of semiconductors, is also vulnerable to stepped-up economic pressure from Beijing. 中国的警告在五角大楼和位于夏威夷的印太司令部引起了反响。美国军方负责保护佩洛西以及评估中国可能采取的军事反应。作为全球领先的半导体生产地点，台湾也容易受到北京方面加大的经济压力。 Here is a look at the issues around Ms. Pelosi’s proposed visit. 以下是与佩洛西拟议中的访问有关的问题。 China’s leader has long set his sights on Taiwan. 长期以来，中国领导人一直将台湾视为目标。 China’s authoritarian leader, Xi Jinping, has made it clearer than any of his predecessors that he sees unifying Taiwan with China to be a primary goal of his rule. 中国的威权主义领导人习近平比任何一位前任都更清楚地表明，他认为将台湾与中国统一是其统治的首要目标。 Mr. Xi is expected to be confirmed to an unprecedented third term as leader at a Communist Party congress in the fall. Ahead of that all-important political meeting, Mr. Xi will be keen to project an image of strength at home and abroad, particularly on the question of Taiwan. 预计习近平将在秋季的人大会议上获得史无前例的第三个任期。在这个重要的政治会议之前，他将热衷于在国内外塑造一个强大的形象，特别是在台湾问题上。 Last month, Mr. Xi dispatched his defense minister, Gen. Wei Fenghe, to an international conference in Singapore, where Mr. Wei warned that China would not hesitate to fight for Taiwan. 上个月，习近平派遣国防部长魏凤和将军参加在新加坡举行的国际会议，后者在会上警告，中国将毫不犹豫地为台湾而战。 “If anyone dares to split off Taiwan, we will not hesitate to fight, will not flinch from the cost and will fight to the very end,” General Wei told his audience. “如果有人胆敢把台湾分裂出去，我们一定会不惜一战、不惜代价，”魏凤和告诉在场人士。 2019年，中国国家主席习近平在纪念《告台湾同胞书》发表40周年的活动中。 POOL PHOTO BY MARK SCHIEFELBEINThe timing of when Mr. Xi might try to absorb Taiwan remains a question of huge debate among military and civilian experts on China, but it is not expected to be imminent. 习近平会何时尝试吞并台湾，这仍然是军事和民事方面的中国问题专家们争论不休的问题，但预计不会马上发生。 “China does want Taiwan ‘back’ badly, but that does not mean it wants an early bloody war that would destroy China’s economic miracle,” William H. Overholt, a senior research fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School, wrote in the current issue of Global Asia. 哈佛大学肯尼迪学院高级研究员威廉·奥弗霍尔特在最新一期的《全球亚洲》杂志上发文称：“中国确实非常希望台湾‘回来’，但这并不意味着它希望尽早爆发一场摧毁中国经济奇迹的流血战争。” In a fiery speech at the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party last year, Mr. Xi stressed the need for the mainland’s unification with Taiwan, which he called “a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China.” 在去年中共建党100周年之际，习近平发表了措辞激烈的讲话，强调中国大陆与台湾统一的必要性，他声称这是“中国共产党矢志不渝的历史任务”。 Any country that dared to stand in the way would face a “great wall of steel” forged by China’s 1.4 billion people, he said. 他说，任何胆敢阻拦的国家都将面对中国14亿人民筑成的“钢铁长城”。 Taiwan is the single biggest flash-point in U.S.-China relations. 台湾是美中关系中最大的导火索。 China’s incursions into airspace and waters near Taiwan have become more aggressive in the past several years, heightening the risk of conflict. 过去几年中，中国侵入台湾附近空域和水域的行为变得更加咄咄逼人，增加了冲突风险。 In June, Beijing upped the stakes when the foreign ministry declared that China had jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait and that it could not be considered an international waterway. 今年6月，北京令风险进一步升级，当时中国外交部宣布，中国对台湾海峡拥有管辖权，不能将其视为国际水道。 And in the past year, Chinese military planes have increasingly probed the airspace near Taiwan, prompting Taiwanese fighter jets to scramble. 在过去一年里，中国军用飞机越来越多地出现在台湾附近的空域，促使台湾战斗机紧急起飞。 Some American analysts have made it clear that China’s military capabilities have grown to the point where an American victory in defense of Taiwan is no longer guaranteed. 一些美国分析人士已经明确表示，中国的军事能力已经发展到美国不一定可以成功保卫台湾的地步。 周四，台湾士兵参加两栖登陆演习，这是年度军事演习的一部分。 LAM YIK FEI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESOriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, recently outlined the array of weaponry China has amassed for a fight over Taiwan in a commentary published in The New York Times. 斯坦福大学弗里曼·斯波格利国际问题研究所研究员奥利亚娜·斯基拉·马斯特罗最近在《纽约时报》发表评论文章，列举了中国为争夺台湾而积累的一系列武器。 China now has the world’s largest navy, and the United States could throw far fewer ships into a Taiwan conflict, she said. “China’s missile force is also thought to be capable of targeting ships at sea to neutralize the main U.S. tool of power projection, aircraft carriers.” 她说，中国现在拥有世界上规模最大的海军，而美国在台湾冲突中可以投入的船只数量要少得多。“中国的导弹部队也被认为能够瞄准海上舰艇，以抵消美国主要的军力投射工具——航空母舰。” Earlier this week, the Seventh Fleet ordered the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and its strike group to sail from Singapore north toward the South China Sea, and in the direction of Taiwan. A Navy spokesperson declined to say whether the carrier would be sailing in the vicinity of Taiwan or sailing through the Taiwan Strait. 本周早些时候，第七舰队命令美国“罗纳德·里根”号航空母舰及其战斗群从新加坡向北驶向中国南海，并向台湾方向航行。一名海军发言人拒绝透露这艘航母是在台湾附近航行还是通过台湾海峡。 Taiwan is a political minefield for Washington. 台湾是华盛顿的政治雷区。 Ms. Pelosi has placed President Biden in an awkward position. She and her staff insist that the speaker, as the leader of a separate but coequal branch of American government, has the right to go anywhere she desires. 佩洛西让拜登总统陷入了一个尴尬的境地。她和她的工作人员坚持认为，作为一个独立但同等的美国政府部门的领导人，议长有权去任何她想去的地方。 For his part, Mr. Biden does not want to be seen as dictating where the speaker can travel. He has signaled that he questions the wisdom of the potential trip. 就拜登而言，他并不希望人们觉得他有意决定议长的行程。他已经表示，他质疑的是这次拟议的访问是否明智。 “I think that the military thinks it’s not a good idea right now,” Mr. Biden said. “我想，军方认为目前这不是一个好主意，”拜登说。 In an intentionally ambiguous diplomatic arrangement adopted when Washington recognized Communist ruled China in 1979, the United States maintains a “one China” policy that acknowledges, but does not endorse, the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China. 1979年，美国在承认中国的共产党政权时，采用了刻意模糊的外交安排，即维护“一个中国”政策，承认但不支持中国“台湾是中国领土”的立场。 台湾总统蔡英文（右二）与美国在台协会负责人孙晓雅(Sandra Oudkirk)去年在一个军事基地的美国F-16战斗机前合影。 ANN WANG/REUTERSPresident Biden has said three times, most recently in May, that the United States would deploy force to help Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. On each occasion, the White House walked back his statements, saying the policy of “strategic ambiguity” remained, under which Washington remains vague as to how forcefully the United States would come to Taiwan’s aid. 算上最近在5月的表态，拜登总统曾三次声称，美国将部署武力帮助台湾抵御中国的入侵。但白宫每次都收回了他的说法，称“战略模糊”的政策依然存在，美国对于如何有力地援助台湾仍然含糊其辞。 The United States maintains robust diplomatic relations with China, with a big embassy in Beijing and four consulates around the country. But relations are at a low over military, economic and ideological competition between the two countries. 美国仍与中国保持着牢固的外交关系，在北京设有大使馆，在各地还有四个领事馆。但因为军事、经济和意识形态上的竞争，两国关系目前已处于低点。 The current ambassador to Beijing, R. Nicholas Burns, is one of America’s most experienced diplomats. In Taiwan, the United States keeps a representative office, the American Institute in Taiwan, headed by a low-profile official from the State Department. At the same time, Washington supplies Taiwan with billions of dollars in military aid and weapons. 现任驻北京大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯是美国经验最丰富的外交官之一。美国在台湾设立的代表处“美国在台协会”则由国务院一位低级别官员领导。另外，美国还向台湾提供了价值数十亿美元的军事援助和武器。 Ms. Pelosi has a history of poking China in the eye. 佩洛西曾有过激怒中国的历史。 The speaker is a longstanding critic of China. In Beijing, she is viewed as hostile. 这位众议院议长是中国的长期批评者。北京视她为敌对派。 As a two-term congresswoman from California, Ms. Pelosi visited Beijing in 1991, two years after Chinese troops opened fire on student protesters around Tiananmen Square, killing hundreds if not thousands. 1991年，作为加州的国会议员（当时是她的第二个任期），佩洛西访问了北京。在那之前两年，中国军队向天安门广场附近的学生抗议者开火，造成数百甚至数以千计的人死亡。 Accompanied to the square by several congressional colleagues and a small group of reporters, Ms. Pelosi unfurled a banner commemorating the dead students. The banner read: “To Those Who Died for Democracy in China.” 在数位国会同事和一小群记者的陪同下，佩洛西来到天安门广场，亮出了一条纪念死去学生的横幅。横幅上写着“献给为中国民主事业牺牲的烈士”。 1991年，佩洛西在北京天安门广场。 ASSOCIATED PRESSMike Chinoy, then a correspondent for CNN, recalled in an article this week how Ms. Pelosi then left the square in a taxi. Police arrested the reporters, detaining them for a couple of hours, he wrote. 时任CNN记者齐迈可(Mike Chinoy)在本周的一篇文章中回忆了佩洛西是如何乘坐出租车离开天安门的。他写道，警方逮捕了记者，将他们拘留了数小时。 Ms. Pelosi is a strong supporter of the Dalai Lama and the rights of Tibetans. In 2015, with official permission from the Chinese government, Ms. Pelosi visited Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, on a tightly controlled trip that is usually off limits to foreign officials and journalists. 佩洛斯是达赖喇嘛和藏人权利的坚定支持者。2015年，在中国政府的正式许可下，佩洛西访问了西藏首府拉萨。那次行程受到严格管控，外国官员和记者通常不得参与这样的访问。 The speaker’s plans for a Taiwan trip attracted some unlikely backers. Senior officials in the Trump administration, including the former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and the former secretary of defense, Mark Esper, said they would like to join her. Mr. Pompeo tweeted that he was banned in China, but would be happy to accompany Ms. Pelosi to Taiwan. 这位议长的访台计划得到了意料之外的支持。包括前国务卿庞皮欧和前国防部长埃斯珀在内的特朗普政府高级官员都表示，他们愿意与她一同前往。庞皮欧发推称，虽然他被中国禁止入境，但很乐意陪同佩洛西前往台湾。 Jane Perlez曾任《纽约时报》北京分社社长，并在肯尼亚、波兰、奥地利、印度尼西亚和巴基斯坦分社担任过社长。她曾参与的报道团队凭借在巴基斯坦和阿富汗的报道获得2009年普利策奖。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@JanePerlez。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道佩洛西开启亚洲行，避谈是否将访台湾2022年8月1日 佩洛西访台计划加剧美国对台海担忧2022年7月26日 台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？2022年6月14日 让特朗普陷入狼狈境地的权势女性2019年1月25日 最受欢迎中国成功制造7纳米芯片，这意味着什么 佩洛西访问亚洲多国，避谈是否将前往台湾 佩洛西不该在此时访问台湾 中国市场神话破灭？在华外企谨慎调整增长预期 拜登与习近平通话逾两小时，台湾问题成焦点 危机时期，民主制度与专制制度孰优孰劣？ “政治雷区”：为何佩洛西拟议中的访台行程如此敏感 内忧外患之际，习近平会和拜登谈些什么？ 一场以习近平为主角的中国领导人接班大戏 中国如何处理外债问题影响深远 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.