美国对乌克兰的脆弱共识 拜登与普京谈判的压力必将增加 爱德华·卢斯添加到我的FT 乌克兰支持者在华盛顿游行，白宫表示，战争如何结束将是基辅的选择——这将是真的，除非它不是 © Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images 在推特上分享（打开新窗口） 在脸书上分享（打开新窗口） 在linkedin上分享（打开新窗口） 在whatsapp上分享（打开新窗口） 节省 爱德华·卢斯 2022 年 10 月 26 日 259 接收免费的美国外交政策更新 我们将每天早上向您发送一封myFT 每日文摘电子邮件，汇总最新的 美国外交政策新闻。 “外交”是当前美国政治的一个禁忌词。本周进步的民主党人拒绝让乔·拜登与俄罗斯对话的速度证明了这一点。议员们坚称，只有乌克兰可以决定这场战争何时以及如何结束。这群人显然被自己一方的野蛮谴责震惊了。 然而，他们只是因为太早说出来而感到内疚。战争以两种方式之一结束：一方无条件投降或谈判解决。作为世界上同样最大的核大国，俄罗斯的全面投降几乎是不可想象的。这意味着西方和乌克兰最终将不得不通过谈判结束这场战争。那一刻还没有到来。但它可能比大多数人想象的更接近。 在乌克兰人重新夺回领土的时候与弗拉基米尔普京进行停火谈判将是疯狂的。今天的当务之急是西方向乌克兰提供足够的火力，以便在冬天之前重新夺回赫尔松和顿巴斯。明年春天乌克兰的军事地位越强，普京的“部分动员”就越不可能扭转战争的方向。 But the situation on the ground — the American ground, that is — will have changed a lot between now and then. Two big factors will weigh on when Biden will try to bring this war to an end. The first is Republicans’ probable capture of one or both chambers of Congress in midterm elections in two weeks. Kevin McCarthy, the likely next Speaker of the House of Representatives, has warned that Republicans will not provide a “blank cheque” for Ukraine’s self-defence. Fifty-seven House Republicans and 11 senators voted against the $40bn Ukraine aid package earlier this year. That money is depleting fast. In the Republican quest to make a scorched earth of Biden’s presidency nothing will be sacrosanct, including Ukraine’s military pipeline. The pro-Putin wing of the Republican party remains a minority. But almost every Republican will back McCarthy’s likely efforts to impeach Biden and hold the US debt ceiling hostage to their demands. It is naive to assume the Ukraine consensus would survive what both US parties see as an existential battle for the republic. The second is that the US will be entering a recession. Economists are virtually unanimous that America will not escape that fate in 2023. This will pose an acute threat to Biden’s — or to another Democratic nominee’s — chances of defeating Donald Trump, or a Trump-like Republican, in 2024. Congressional Republicans will be working in tandem with the recession to darken Biden’s electoral clouds. As the 2024 reckoning looms, Ukraine’s fate will take a back seat to America’s. The imperatives confronting Ukraine and Biden are still the same. The faster Ukraine can roll back Russia’s military, the better for everyone. Biden and the US’s allies still have a window to tilt the advantage further in Ukraine’s favour. But American and Ukrainian interests will diverge as 2024 looms. Critics of the US-led coalition say they are fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian. Yet as both paymaster and quartermaster, America’s support is indispensable. Fiscal metrics do not capture the real cost of a war that is stoking the inflation that is so harmful to Democratic prospects. The White House maintains it will be Ukraine’s choice how this war comes to an end. That will be true until the moment it is not. The question remains why Democrats are so quick to shut down debate in their ranks. The intensity of liberal hawkishness has caught even the White House by surprise. The answer has as much to do with the US republic’s uncertain future as with Russia’s threat to European peace. These spectres are stamped with the faces of Trump and Putin. Biden framed his democracy versus autocracy line on the campaign trail to highlight Trump’s threat to US democracy. Trump’s “semi-fascist” leanings (in Biden’s words) are even more menacing today than they were when he lost the election. There are hundreds of Republicans on the ballot who back Trump’s claim that Biden stole the presidency. The return of Trump in 2024 would be Putin’s ultimate get out of jail free card. In the past eight months, Putin has united the west and forged a lasting sense of Ukrainian nationhood. His ineptitude has been epic. But peak western unity has probably been reached. Democracy’s biggest existential stakes are still in the US. In addition to surrender or deal, war has a third outcome — indefinite suspension. The hotter America’s politics becomes, the greater the temptation to freeze Ukraine’s. edward.luce@ft.com Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2022. All rights reserved.Reuse this content(opens in new window)CommentsJump to comments section Latest on US foreign policy US foreign policy US to withdraw permanent F-15 fighter force from Okinawa US foreign policy Biden avoids radical shift in new nuclear weapons policy US politics & policy Progressive Democrats withdraw letter urging Biden to talk with Putin FT Swamp Notes Of computer chips and potato chips Premium content Saudi Arabia US bankers head to ‘Davos in the desert’ despite Saudi tensions Anne-Marie Slaughter America must be serious about cross-border challenges US-China relations US Navy chief warns China could invade Taiwan before 2024 Comments Follow the topics in this article Edward Luce Add to myFT War in Ukraine Add to myFT US foreign policy Add to myFT Joe Biden Add to myFT How easy or hard was it to use FT.com today? feedback Useful links Support Legal & Privacy Services Tools Community & Events More from the FT Group 市场数据至少延迟 15 分钟。© THE FINANCIAL TIMES LTD 2022。FT和“Financial Times”是 The Financial Times Ltd. 的商标。Financial Times 及其新闻业受英国《金融时报》编辑业务守则 规定的自律制度的约束。 关闭抽屉菜单金融时报 国际版 订阅以获得完全访问权限 搜索英国《金融时报》 搜索 切换到英国版 顶部部分 家 世界 显示更多 我们 显示更多 公司 显示更多公司 科技 市场 显示更多市场 气候 观点 显示更多意见 工作与职业 显示更多工作和职业 生活与艺术 显示更多生活与艺术 个人财务 显示更多 个人理财 HTSI 特别报道 FT推荐 莱克斯 阿尔法维尔 与英国《金融时报》共进午餐 FT环球旅行者 #techAsia 道德金钱 傅立叶调频 时事通讯 视频 播客 新闻提要 金融时报社区 显示更多 FT 社区 我的FT 文件夹 今日报纸 (ePaper) 填字游戏 我们的应用 帮助中心 订阅 登入