鸿儒私塾观察 好文

亚太 中 双语 英 新闻分析太平洋影响力争夺战：中国为何遥遥领先？Why China Is Miles Ahead in a Pacific Race for InfluenceDAMIEN CAVE2022年5月31日 2014年，斐济苏瓦港的中国游艇。 REUTERSSUVA, Fiji — Take a walk through the city where China’s foreign minister met on Monday with the leaders of nearly a dozen Pacific Island nations, and China’s imprint is unmistakable. 斐济苏瓦——在中国外交部长与太平洋十国领导人周一进行会晤的城市里走上一圈，就会发现中国在这里的印记显而易见。 On one side of Suva, the capital of Fiji, there’s a bridge rebuilt with Chinese loans and unveiled with the country’s prime minister standing beside China’s ambassador. On the other, down Queen Elizabeth Drive, sits Beijing’s hulking new embassy, where the road out front has been fixed by workers in neon vests bearing the name of a Chinese state-owned enterprise. 在斐济首都苏瓦的的一侧，能看到一座用中国贷款重建的桥梁，斐济总理曾站在中国大使身旁为该桥揭幕。伊丽莎白女王大道上有北京新建的大型大使馆，身穿亮色背心的工人最近修好了大使馆门口的路，背心上印着一家中国国企的名字。 Looming over it all is Wanguo Friendship Plaza, a skeletal apartment tower built by a Chinese company and meant to be the South Pacific’s tallest building, until Fiji’s government halted construction over safety concerns. 不远处万国友谊广场巍然耸立，这幢线条硬朗的大厦由一家中国公司承建，本打算建成南太平洋最高的建筑，但斐济政府出于安全考虑叫停了施工。 Eight years after Xi Jinping visited Fiji, offering Pacific Island nations a ride on “China’s express train of development,” Beijing is fully entrenched, its power irrepressible if not always embraced. And that has left the United States playing catch-up in a vital strategic arena. 在习近平访问斐济、欢迎太平洋岛国“搭乘中国发展快车”八年后，中国已在这里完全站稳了脚跟，它的力量虽然并非总是受到欢迎，但也已经不可抑制。这使得美国在与中国的全球竞争中，要在一个愈发关键的舞台上奋起直追。 All over the Pacific, Beijing’s plans have become more ambitious, more visible — and more divisive. China is no longer just probing for opportunities in the island chains that played a critical role in Japan’s strategic planning before World War II. With the Chinese foreign minister halfway through an eight-nation tour of the Pacific Islands, China is seeking to bind the vast region together in agreements for greater access to its land, seas and digital infrastructure, while promising development, scholarships and training in return. 在整个太平洋地区，中国的规划都更具野心、更引人注目、也更加具有分裂性。这片岛链在“二战”前日本的战略规划中就扮演着重要角色，如今中国在这里的目的也不再仅限于寻找机会。中国外交部长出访八个太平洋岛国行程过半之际，中国正寻求通过协议，将这片广大地区绑在一起，扩大进入其陆地、海洋和数字基础设施的机会，同时承诺以发展、奖学金和培训作为回报。 周一，中国外交部长王毅在苏瓦与斐济总理弗兰克·拜尼马拉马会晤。 LEON LORD/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESChina’s interest in the Pacific Islands, made more explicit by a series of recently leaked documents, starts with maritime real estate. From Papua New Guinea to Palau, the countries of the region have jurisdiction over an area of ocean three times as large as the continental United States, stretching from just south of Hawaii to exclusive economic zones butting up against Australia, Japan and the Philippines. 最近泄露的一系列文件更明确地显示，中国在太平洋岛屿的利益就始于海上不动产。从巴布亚新几内亚到帕劳，该地区国家所拥有的海洋管辖权范围是美国本土的三倍，从夏威夷以南一直延伸到与澳大利亚、日本和菲律宾相接的专属经济区。 Chinese fishing fleets already dominate the seas between the area’s roughly 30,000 islands, seizing huge hauls of tuna while occasionally sharing intelligence on the movements of the U.S. Navy. If China can add ports, airports and outposts for satellite communications — all of which are edging closer to reality in some Pacific Island nations — it could help in intercepting communications, blocking shipping lanes and engaging in space combat. 中国渔船队已在该地区约3万个岛屿之间的海域占据主导地位，捕获了大量金枪鱼，并不时分享美国海军行动的情报。如果中国继续增加港口、机场和用于卫星通信的前哨站（在一些太平洋岛国，所有这些都越来越接近现实），将对该国的通信拦截，封锁航道及参与太空作战大有帮助。 China has already shown how to accomplish “elite capture” in countries with small populations, major development needs and leaders who often silence local news media. And while the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, did not rapidly secure the sweeping proposal he pitched to a region that has long emphasized sovereignty and consensus, he has already collected a number of smaller victories. 中国已经展示了如何在人口稀少、发展需求大、领导人经常压制本地新闻媒体的国家实现“精英捕获”。在这个长期靠协商一致运作的地区，中国外交部长王毅尽管未能敲定他所提出的全面协议，但仍然赢得了一些较小的胜利。 Most significant, in the Solomon Islands, Mr. Wang signed several new agreements, including a security deal that gives China the power to send security forces to quell unrest or protect Chinese investments, and possibly to build a port for commercial and military use. 最重要的是，王毅在所罗门群岛签署了几项新协议，包括一项安全协议，它将赋予中国派遣安全部队平息动乱或保护中国投资的权力，并可能建造一处用于商业和军事用途的港口。 所罗门群岛皇家警察部队3月发布的一张照片中，当地警察正在与中国警察联络小组的官员一起训练。 ROYAL SOLOMON ISLANDS POLICE FORCE, VIA AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESChinese officials deny that’s the plan. But the deal — along with others in the Solomons and Kiribati whose details have not been disclosed — has been made possible because of something else that’s visible and much-discussed in the Pacific: a longstanding lack of American urgency, innovation and resources. 中国官员否认了该计划。但这种开放式协议之所以成为可能，还是因为一些在太平洋地区显而易见、且被广泛讨论的事情：那就是美国在紧迫感、创新以及资源方面的长期匮乏。 To many observers, the South Pacific today reveals what American decline looks like. Even as Washington officials have tried to step up their game, they are still far behind, mistaking speeches for impact and interest for influence. 在许多观察人士看来，今日南太平洋的局势正揭示了美国的衰落。即便华盛顿官员已经试图加大投入，但还是远远落后，他们错误地认为，高谈阔论、存在利害关系就能产生影响力。 “There’s a lot of talk,” said Sandra Tarte, the head of the government and international affairs department at the University of the South Pacific in Suva. “And not much real substance.” “讨论是有很多，”苏瓦的南太平洋大学政府与国际事务系主任桑德拉·塔尔特说。“但却没多少实质性的东西。” The Absent American 缺席的美国人 The Yanks, it is often said, used to be more productive. Many of the airports and hospitals still in use across the Pacific were built by the United States and its allies during World War II. 人们常说，美国佬以前的效率是很高的。整个太平洋地区仍在使用的许多机场和医院都是美国及其盟友在“二战”期间建造的。 At some of those old installations, there are memorial plaques in hidden corners, but the infrastructure has mostly been left to decay. Suva-Nausori Airport was constructed by U.S. Navy Seabees in 1942. Eight decades later, it looks as if not much has changed. 在其中一些老旧的设施中，有时还能在不为人知的角落里找到一些纪念牌匾，但这种基础设施大多已经荒废。苏瓦-瑙索里机场是美国海军工程营于1942年建成的。80年过去了，它看起来似乎并没有太大变化。 Richard Herr, an American law professor in Australia who has been a democracy consultant for Pacific countries since the 1970s, said he often wondered why the Solomon Islands’ main airport — known in World War II as Henderson Field, the site of major battles against the Japanese — had never been rehabbed with American technological expertise. 澳大利亚的美国法学教授理查德·赫尔自1970年代以来就为太平洋国家担任民主顾问，他说自己一直想知道，为什么所罗门群岛的主要机场——它在“二战”中被称为亨德森机场，是与日本人进行重大战斗的地方——从未使用美国专业技能进行翻修。 所罗门群岛的霍尼亚拉国际机场。“二战”期间这里是美国军事基地。 CPL BRANDON GREY/AUSTRALIAN DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE VIA GETTY IMAGESAny American who passes through Honiara is likely to ask that question. It’s one of many places in the region where the United States is missing in action beyond signs for Coca-Cola. 任何途经霍尼亚拉的人都很有可能会发出同样的疑问。与该地区许多地方一样，除了可口可乐的商标，美国缺少参与和投入。 “The United States doesn’t have a significant presence in the Pacific at all,” said Anna Powles, a senior lecturer in security studies at Massey University in New Zealand. “I’m always shocked that in Washington they think they have a significant presence when they just don’t.” “在太平洋地区，美国根本无足轻重，”新西兰梅西大学的安全研究高级讲师安娜·鲍尔斯说道。“华盛顿的人都以为美国的影响力举足轻重，这总让我感到震惊，因为实际上并非如此。” American officials point out that the United States does have big military bases in Guam, along with close ties to countries like the Marshall Islands. And in February, Antony J. Blinken became the first secretary of state in 36 years to visit Fiji, where he announced that the United States would reopen an embassy in the Solomon Islands and engage more on issues like illegal fishing and climate change. 美国官员指出，美国确实在关岛有大型军事基地，并且与马绍尔群岛等国家关系密切。2月，安东尼·布林肯成为36年来首位访问斐济的国务卿，在那里，他宣布美国将在所罗门群岛重新设立大使馆，并在非法捕鱼和气候变化等问题方面进行更多参与。 Fiji’s acting prime minister at the time, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, called it an American return, and “a very strong philosophical commitment.” The question is whether it’s enough. 斐济时任代总理艾亚兹·赛义德-凯约姆称其为“美国回归”，并且是“非常强大的理念承诺”。问题是这样做是否足够。 Mr. Blinken said last week that “China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it.” He promised that the United States would “shape the strategic environment around Beijing to advance our vision for an open and inclusive international system.” 布林肯上周表示“中国是唯一一个既有重塑国际秩序的意图，也有越来越多的经济、外交、军事和技术实力来做到这一点的国家”。他承诺美国将“塑造中国周围的战略环境，推进我们实现一个公开和包容的国际体系的愿景”。 But that vision in this part of the world has been slow to arrive. The Biden administration took more than a year to release its Indo-Pacific strategy, which is light on specifics and heavy on gauzy phrases (“maximally favorable”) that mostly make sense in clubby gatherings of men in dark suits with flag lapel pins. 但在世界的这个地区，上述愿景姗姗来迟。拜登政府花了一年多的时间才发布了其印太战略，该战略没有太多具体细节，大量使用模糊的短语（“最大程度的有利”），这些短语只有穿着深色西装、佩戴旗帜徽章参加内部聚会的男人能够理解。 Even Republicans and Democrats in Congress who agree that something must be done to counter China have been squabbling for 15 months over a bill to make the United States more competitive — and it still would do little, if anything, for contested places like the Pacific. 即使是国会中认为必须采取措施对抗中国的两党人士，也为一项让美国更具竞争力的法案争论了15个月——而且对于像太平洋这样有争议的地方，它的作用充其量也是很小的。 2月，美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯与时任斐济代总理的艾亚兹·赛义德·凯尤姆在斐济纳迪。 POOL PHOTO BY KEVIN LAMARQUEThe start-up embassy in the Solomons also looks less impressive on closer inspection. Replacing an embassy that closed in the 1990s during America’s post-Cold War withdrawal, the outpost will begin in leased office space with two U.S. staff members and five local hires. 细看之下，所罗门群岛刚开设的大使馆似乎也没什么了不起。新的大使馆取代了1990年代冷战后美军撤军期间关闭的大使馆，两名美国工作人员和五名当地雇员将在租来的办公空间开始工作。 Compared to China’s presence in the region, it is nowhere near an equivalent surge. In Fiji, for example, the Chinese Embassy is centrally located and well staffed with officials who speak better English than their predecessors and often appear in local news media. 美国的出现与中国在该地区的存在难以相提并论。例如，在斐济，中国大使馆位于市中心，人员充足，官员的英语比前任更好，而且经常出现在当地新闻媒体上。 广告 The American Embassy, by contrast, sits on a hillside far from downtown Suva in a heavily fortified compound. It covers five nations (Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Tonga and Tuvalu), doesn’t have a full-time ambassador — President Biden nominated someone only last week — and is known for being understaffed. 相比之下，美国大使馆坐落在远离苏瓦市中心的山坡上一个戒备森严的建筑群中。它包括驻五个国家的大使馆（斐济、基里巴斯、瑙鲁、汤加和图瓦卢），没有全职大使——拜登总统上周才提名了人选——而且人手不足的情况是众所周知的。 Joseph Veramu, a former U.N. consultant who runs Integrity Fiji, which focuses on values like transparency, said in an interview in Suva that he had invited U.S. embassy officials to events five or six times in recent years. Only once did someone come — without saying much, and refusing to allow photos. 前联合国顾问约瑟夫·维拉穆是“正直斐济”的负责人，该组织专注于提升透明度等价值观，他在苏瓦接受采访时表示，近年来他曾五六次邀请美国大使馆官员参加活动。对方只来过一次——没说多少话，并拒绝拍照。 “I guess they must be very busy,” he said. “我猜他们一定很忙，”他说。 The Chinese Alternative 另一个选项是中国 Many Pacific Island nations do not welcome another age of great-power competition. As Matthew Wale, the opposition leader in the Solomons, said in a recent interview: “We don’t want to be the grass trampled over by the elephants.” 许多太平洋岛国不希望再次进入大国竞争时代。正如所罗门群岛反对党领袖马修·威尔所说，“我们不想成为被大象践踏的草地。” But what they do want, and what China seems better at providing right now, is consistent engagement and capacity building. 但他们真正想要的，也是中国目前似乎更擅长提供的，是持续参与和能力建设。 广告 While the United States has shown off Coast Guard vessels it is using to police illegal fishing, China is planning to build maritime transportation hubs and high-tech law enforcement centers where Chinese officers can provide expertise and equipment. 虽然美国曾展示过它用来监管非法捕鱼的海岸警卫队船只，但中国正计划建设海上交通枢纽和高科技执法中心，中国官员可以在这些地方提供专业知识和设备。 While the United States, and its allies Australia and New Zealand, offers humanitarian aid — after the tsunami in Tonga, for instance — China is offering thousands of scholarships for vocational, diplomatic and disaster-response training, along with “cooperation in meteorological observation.” 虽然美国及其盟友澳大利亚和新西兰提供人道主义援助——就像汤加海啸发生后那样——但中国正在提供数以千计的奖学金项目，用于职业、外交和灾害应对培训，以及“气象观测合作”。 2018年，中国在巴布亚新几内亚莫尔兹比港修建了一条公路。 DAVID GRAY/REUTERS“China has always maintained that big and small countries are all equals,” Mr. Xi, the Chinese leader, said in a written message to Pacific foreign ministers on Monday. “No matter how international circumstances fluctuate, China will always be a good friend.” “中方一贯坚持大小国家一律平等，”中国领导人习近平周一在给太平洋岛国外长会的书面致辞中说。“无论国际形势如何变幻，中国始终是太平洋岛国志同道合的好朋友。” Pacific Island nations now find themselves deciding how much to trust or resist that friendship. Mr. Wang has yet to gain support for the most sensitive proposals, including collaboration on customs systems and other digital operations of government. In places like Suva, where Pentecostal churches blare praise music over thunderstorms, Chinese Communism may always be eyed warily. 太平洋岛国现在需要决定在多大程度上信任或抵制这种友谊。在最敏感的提案上——包括海关系统和其他政府数字化运作方面的合作——王毅尚未获得支持。在像苏瓦这样的地方——五旬节教堂里的赞美诗在雷雨中响起——中国的共产主义可能总是受到警惕。 But Monday’s gathering in Suva was Mr. Wang’s second meeting with Pacific Island leaders in the past eight months, and more are planned. Clearly, China intends to keep emphasizing that friendship means building stuff and offering promises of prosperity, while expecting news censorship, resource access and security opportunities in exchange. 但周一在苏瓦的会面是过去八个月里王毅与太平洋岛国领导人的第二次会晤，未来还将有更多类似活动。显然，中国意在继续强调友谊意味着建设与提供繁荣的承诺，而作为交换，它也在期待进行新闻审查、获取资源以及获得安全方面的机会。 The pressing question in this part of the world is: What does friendship mean to America? 在世界的这个地方，紧迫的问题是：对于美国来说，友谊意味着什么？ Damien Cave是时报澳大利亚悉尼分社社长。他此前曾在墨西哥城、哈瓦那、贝鲁特和巴格达报道新闻。自2004年加入《纽约时报》以来，他还担任过国内新闻副主编、迈阿密分社社长和纽约市记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@damiencave。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)自悉尼对本文有报道贡献。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道中国与所罗门群岛的安全协议影响几何2022年4月21日 新冷战时代，亚非拉国家拒绝“站队”2022年4月25日 所罗门群岛证实将与中国签安全协议2022年3月30日 所罗门群岛爆发抗议，中国成焦点2021年11月26日 最受欢迎中国不是美国的未来大敌 美国真的能保护台湾吗？ 联合国人权高级专员温和批评中国，遭多方质疑 海地如何沦为法国和美国的“金矿”和“提款机” 美国重回超级计算机排名榜首，中国未提交测试结果 联合国人权高官访华：北京粉饰镇压的宣传工具？ 土豆、拐杖、无人机：俄罗斯人众筹援助在乌士兵 朝鲜宣布已控制疫情一天后疑似病例反弹 “最后一代”和“润学”：中国年轻人的绝望与幻灭 太平洋影响力争夺战：中国为何遥遥领先？ 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.