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观点与评论 中 双语 英 观点中国不是美国的未来大敌China Doesn’t Have to Be Our Next Great EnemyZACHARY KARABELL2022年5月31日 THOMAS PETER/REUTERSIn a speech on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed the long-awaited outlines of the Biden administration’s official posture toward China. Rather than Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Mr. Blinken said, it is China that represents the most potent and determined threat to the American-championed world order. 在上周四的一次演讲中，国务卿安东尼·布林肯揭示了人们期待已久的拜登政府对中国的正式立场。布林肯表示，对美国所倡导的世界秩序来说，代表着最强有力、最坚定威胁的是中国，而不是弗拉基米尔·普京领导的俄罗斯。 Only China, he continued, has “both the intent to reshape the international order” and the power to do so, he said. The United States will seek to rally coalitions of other nations to meet Beijing’s challenge. 中国“是唯一不仅具有重塑国际秩序的意图”，也有能力这样做的国家，布林肯继续说道。美国将寻求与其他国家联合起来，迎接北京的挑战。 The writing had been on the wall. Just days earlier, President Biden pledged to defend Taiwan if China moved to seize the democratically ruled island; he met with regional allies; and his administration proposed a new plan to counter China’s growing economic clout in Asia. 征兆早已出现。就在几天前，拜登总统承诺，如果中国采取行动攻占台湾，美国将保卫这个民主自治的岛屿；拜登与区域盟友举行了峰会；他的政府提出了一项新方案，以对抗中国在亚洲日益增长的经济影响力。 But the intensifying fixation on China’s potential to disrupt the world order shrinks space for cooperation with Beijing and distracts from the real threat in the world: Russia. 然而，加强关注对中国扰乱世界秩序的潜在能力，将导致与北京的合作空间缩小，分散人们对俄罗斯的注意力，后者才是世界面临的真正威胁。 Under Mr. Putin, Russia demolished the Chechen capital of Grozny in 2000, invaded Georgia in 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014 and used its air force in 2015 and 2016 against opponents of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. His regime has used cyberattacks, brutalized or assassinated domestic opponents and passed laws that impose draconian prison sentences on anyone questioning the state. He launched a brutal invasion of Ukraine and has hinted at possibly using nuclear weapons. Mr. Putin has not just declared his intent to redraw international borders and resurrect the ghost of the former Soviet Union, he has acted on it. 在普京领导下，俄罗斯于2000年摧毁了车臣首都格罗兹尼，2008年入侵了格鲁吉亚，2014年吞并了克里米亚，并在2015年和2016年对叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的反对者动用了空军打击。普京政权发起了网络攻击，残酷对待或暗杀国内反对派，并通过立法对任何质疑国家的人处以严酷徒刑。普京对乌克兰发动了残酷的入侵，还暗示了使用核武器的可能性。普京不仅宣布他打算重新划定国际边界、让苏联的幽灵复活的意图，还付诸了行动。 Thwarting further Russian misbehavior through trade embargoes, preventing resupply of the country’s military and establishing an international phalanx against Mr. Putin requires global cooperation. That includes China. 用贸易禁运、不让俄罗斯军队重新得到补给、建立一个反对普京的国际纵队来阻止俄罗斯进一步的不端行为需要全球合作。这包括中国。 We need to be cleareyed about China, of course. It is without doubt a more powerful potential adversary than Russia on every metric — military, economic and ideological. The Communist Party, under the firm control of Xi Jinping, pursues a form of state-sponsored capitalism that disadvantages foreign companies in the China market and builds up powerful national champions. The primacy of the party trumps rule of law, and free-speech and political rights are harshly suppressed. China’s appalling treatment of its Uyghur minority and suppression of basic rights in Hong Kong have been rightly condemned. 当然，我们需要对中国有清醒的认识。毫无疑问，从军事、经济和意识形态等各方面来看，该国都是一个比俄罗斯更强大的潜在对手。在习近平的严格控制下，中共致力于一种国家支持的资本主义，让外国企业在中国市场处于不利地位，扶植本国的优胜企业。中共至高无上的地位凌驾于法治之上，人民的言论自由和政治权利受到严厉压制。中国骇人听闻地对待国内维吾尔少数民族，镇压香港的基本权利，这些做法都应受到谴责。 China also spends more on its military than any country besides the United States, which is intended to counter American military pre-eminence in East Asia. Rising nationalism is expressed in the belief that Taiwan must be reunified with mainland China and that the South China Sea is a Chinese lake. 中国的军事开支仅次于美国，其目的是为了对抗美国在东亚的军事优势。中国不断高涨的民族主义表现在台湾必须与中国大陆统一、南中国海是中国内海等信念上。 But these issues don’t necessarily make China a threat to American prosperity and security, not unless you believe in every antagonistic word coming from Chinese officials, every war plan devised by its military, and the inevitability of “the Thucydides trap” — the notion that emerging powers will tend toward conflict with established ones. Neither does it follow that any country which does not adhere to liberal democratic norms is a budding threat to the United States. The United States has never based its entire foreign policy on human rights, nor should it; that would be a recipe for endless intervention and conflict globally. And grounding policy on what might happen is an equally slippery slope. 但这些问题不一定使中国成为美国繁荣与安全的威胁，除非你相信中国官员的每句敌对言辞，相信中国军方的每个作战计划，相信“修昔底德陷阱”——新兴强国将与现有强国发生冲突的必然性。这也不意味着任何不遵守自由民主规范的国家都是美国面临的新威胁。美国从来都没有将人权作为自己整个外交政策的基础，也不该这样做；那将带来无休止的干预和全球冲突。把政策建立在可能会发生的事情上是同样危险的做法。 The Communist Party views the United States as an adversary. But it has been willing to engage diplomatically, has repeatedly championed the inviolability of state borders and is not averse to self-interested compromise over issues like trade and climate change. It’s rhetoric over Taiwan has been little more than saber-rattling and appears restrained compared to how the United States has historically treated t Latin America. 虽然中共将美国视为对手，但它一直愿意进行外交上的接触，反复强调国家主权不可侵犯，并不反对在贸易和气候变化等问题上做出符合自身利益的妥协。中国在台湾问题上的言辞一直都没太超出武力恫吓的范围，与美国在历史上对待拉丁美洲的做法相比显得还要克制。 Advocates of a new Cold War with China will surely roll their eyes at these assertions. They will say that China has wiggled out of trade commitments, repeatedly violated agreements on climate, used espionage to steal intellectual property, and is building a military designed to inflict harm on the United States and its allies. 提倡与中国进入新冷战关系的人肯定会对上述主张翻白眼。他们要说，中国已背弃了贸易承诺，多次违反气候协议，使用间谍活动窃取知识产权，正在建设一支能对美国及其盟友造成伤害的军队。 But it is logical for an emerging great power like China to make plans for its defense, including potential conflict with the United States. It’s also worth remembering that China is deeply intertwined with the U.S. and global economy. It holds more than a trillion dollars’ worth of American debt in the form of U.S. Treasury securities, benefits from the cumulative effect of U.S. investment in China and needs access to foreign markets. All of these realities shape its behavior just as much as the possibility of a future confrontation with the United States. Russia, by contrast, is constrained only by how far Mr. Putin is willing to go. 但对像中国这样的新兴强国来说，制定防御计划，将与美国发生潜在冲突的可能性包括进去是合乎逻辑的。同样值得一提的是，中美与全球经济紧密相连。中国持有超过一万亿美元的美国国债，受益于美国在中国投资的累积效应，需要进入国外市场。所有这些现实都影响着中国的行为，就像未来与美国发生对抗的可能性一样。相比之下，俄罗斯的行为只受制于普京愿意走多远。 Rather than cast China as our next great enemy, American security would be better served by the realization that Russia’s behavior only highlights the ways that China and the United States remain bound to each other despite their tensions. We should nurture rather than endanger these ties, which are crucial for both countries to remain prosperous, stable and secure. We should also not allow our dislike of China’s domestic system to be the basis of how we engage a country whose centrality to the global system is second only to ours. 与其把中国描绘成我们的下一个大敌，不如认识到俄罗斯的行为只能凸显出中美两国虽然关系紧张但仍保持紧密联系的重要性，这会更有利于美国的安全。我们应该培养而不是危害这些关系，这对两国保持繁荣、稳定和安全至关重要。我们也不应该让我们对中国国内制度的反感成为我们与这个在全球体系中地位仅次于我们的国家交往的基础。 It’s rarely wise to take on two adversaries at once. Mr. Biden should find new ways to work with China, rather than trying to coerce it to be different. He should take bold steps to tone down the rhetoric, such as lifting Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods in return for Beijing’s reduced support for Putin. Otherwise, he will miss an opportunity to be a savvy, strategic president rather than one who fights with China at every turn. 同时与两个对手较量很少是明智之举。拜登应该找到与中国打交道的新方式，而不是试图迫使它改变自己。他应该在缓和言辞上采取大胆的步骤，比如取消特朗普时代对中国商品加征的关税，以换取中国政府减少对普京的支持。否则，他将错过成为一位精明、有战略眼光的总统的机会，变成一个动辄就与中国对抗的总统。 Zachary Karabell是The Progress Network创始人，著有《Inside Money: Brown Brothers Harriman and the American Way of Power》一书。他此前在Fred Alger Management公司任中国增长基金组合基金经理。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道美国真的能保护台湾吗？2022年5月30日 保卫台湾，拜登不只是说说而已2022年5月25日 俄罗斯和中国都暴露了威权政权的弱点2022年4月19日 俄罗斯和中国会毁掉全球经济吗？2022年4月8日 最受欢迎中国不是美国的未来大敌 美国真的能保护台湾吗？ 联合国人权高级专员温和批评中国，遭多方质疑 海地如何沦为法国和美国的“金矿”和“提款机” 美国重回超级计算机排名榜首，中国未提交测试结果 联合国人权高官访华：北京粉饰镇压的宣传工具？ 土豆、拐杖、无人机：俄罗斯人众筹援助在乌士兵 朝鲜宣布已控制疫情一天后疑似病例反弹 “最后一代”和“润学”：中国年轻人的绝望与幻灭 太平洋影响力争夺战：中国为何遥遥领先？ 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.