专栏作者“我们为没有犯下的罪付出了过高的代价”‘We Are Overpaying the Price for a Sin We Didn’t Commit’纪思道2023年10月28日 加沙城。 AHMAD HASABALLAH/GETTY IMAGESThe most consequential decision Israel will face in the coming days is how hard to continue hitting Gaza. Should it undertake a monthslong ground invasion? Continue with large-scale aerial bombardment? Allow fuel into Gaza to keep hospitals running? 以色列未来几天将面临的最重要决定是，以怎样的力度继续打击加沙。是否应进行一场长达数月的地面入侵？是否将大规模的空袭继续下去？是否允许燃料进入加沙以维持医院运转？ Over the last week that I’ve spent reporting in Israel and the West Bank, I’ve tried to listen and learn. So let me share why I believe we’ll someday look back at this moment and see a profound moral and policy failure. 过去一周里，我一直在以色列和约旦河西岸进行报道，试图倾听和了解情况。现在，让我分享一下，为什么我认为有朝一日我们回顾此刻将发现这是一次道德和政策的巨大失败。 But let me start with someone smart who has a different take. 但让我先从一个有不同看法的聪明人开始。 Ehud Barak, the former Israeli general, defense minister and prime minister, knows more about the military challenges of taking on Gaza than almost anybody. In 2009 he oversaw a major ground offensive against Hamas. I dropped by his home in Tel Aviv, and we sat in his office, surrounded by his collection of framed cartoons mocking him — he has a thick skin — as he argued in favor of a ground invasion as the only way to crush Hamas. 退役将军埃胡德·巴拉克曾当过以色列国防部长和总理，他对入侵加沙的军事挑战知道得比几乎所人都多。2009年，他指挥过一场针对哈马斯的大规模地面攻击。我顺便拜访了他在特拉维夫的家，我们坐在他的办公室里听他阐述他支持地面入侵是制服哈马斯唯一途径的理由，办公室的墙上挂满了相框，都是他收藏的嘲笑他的漫画，他不计较脸面。 “There is no way but to send many tens of thousands of boots on the ground,” he said, but he acknowledged that this will be a prolonged and bloody task. He estimated that there is a 50 percent chance that it will lead to a war with Hezbollah in the north, plus some risk of attacks from militias on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights and of serious unrest on the West Bank. 他说，“除了派几万军人去实地作战，没有别的办法”，但他承认，那将是一项漫长且血腥的任务。他估计，引发在以色列北边与真主党作战的可能性是50%，此外还有受戈兰高地叙利亚一侧的民兵袭击，以及约旦河西岸发生严重骚乱的风险。 Barak also warned that after a number of months when Israel might be ready to withdraw from Gaza, it could have trouble handing the territory over to someone else. But it’s conceivable, he said, that Israel could find a multilateral Arab force to take over Gaza and that this force could eventually transfer control of the territory to the Palestinian Authority. On balance, he thinks that it is possible for Israel to destroy most of Hamas’s capabilities, establish a no-go zone along the border and extricate itself. 巴拉克还警告，以色列在几个月后也许准备从加沙撤军时，它可能在谁来接管加沙的问题上遇到困难。但他说，可以想象的是，以色列可能会找到一支阿拉伯多边部队来接管加沙，这支部队最终可能会将加沙的控制权移交给巴勒斯坦权力机构。总的来说，他认为，以色列能做到摧毁哈马斯的大部分能力，沿边境建一个禁区，使自己抽身出来。 以色列前总理埃胡德·巴拉克。 WILLIAM KEO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESFor my part, I’m skeptical that either the invasion or the handover would go well, partly because I’ve observed so many military operations that started optimistically and ended as bloody quagmires. But Barak also made another important point: Israel will now finally end Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policy of bolstering Hamas. 就我而言，我对入侵或移交将顺利进行持怀疑态度，部分原因是我观察过许多军事行动，开始时乐观，但都以血腥的困境结束。不过，巴拉克也阐述了另一个重要看法：以色列现在终于可以结束内塔尼亚胡总理强化哈马斯的政策了。 What? Israel supported Hamas? 这话怎么说？以色列支持哈马斯？ Yes, under Netanyahu, Israel approved the transfer of over $1 billion to Gaza from Qatar — intended to cover expenses such as salaries and energy costs — but some funds reached Hamas’ military wing, Ha’aretz reported. (Qatar has denied that the money was misused.) Netanyahu’s aim, according to Barak and others, was to buttress Hamas so as to weaken the rival Palestinian Authority and undermine any possibility of a two-state solution. “Those who want to thwart the possibility of a Palestinian state should support the strengthening of Hamas and the transfer of money to Hamas,” Netanyahu reportedly said in 2019. 是的，以色列在内塔尼亚胡领导下批准了从卡塔尔向加沙转移逾10亿美元的资金，这笔钱原本是为了支付工资和能源费用的，但据《国土报》报道，部分资金流入了哈马斯的武装派系。（卡塔尔否认钱被滥用。）据巴拉克和其他人的说法，内塔尼亚胡的目的是通过支持哈马斯来削弱其竞争对手巴勒斯坦民族权力机构，从而破坏任何两国解决方案的可能性。据传，内塔尼亚胡曾在2019年说过这样的话：“那些想阻止建立巴勒斯坦国的人应该支持加强哈马斯，支持向哈马斯转移资金。” That monetary lifeline to Hamas will now surely be cut, and that may hurt the organization as much as any number of bombs. 哈马斯的资金生命线现在肯定将被切断，这对该组织的损害可能不亚于任何数量的炸弹。 Israel has the right to defend itself and strike military targets in Gaza, and there should be strong international pressure on Hamas to release its hostages. My reporting in Gaza over the years convinces me that Gazans themselves would be much better off if Hamas could be removed: Some American liberals don’t appreciate how repressive, misogynistic, homophobic and economically incompetent Hamas is in Gaza, to say nothing of its long history of terror attacks on Israel. All this explains why many Gazans are fed up with Hamas. 以色列有权自卫，有权打击加沙的军事目标，国际社会应该向哈马斯施加巨大压力，要求其释放人质。我对加沙进行了多年的报道，我相信，如果哈马斯能被消灭的话，加沙人自己会过得更好。一些美国自由派人士不了解哈马斯在加沙的镇压、厌女、仇视同性恋的做法，以及经济上的无能，更不用说哈马斯对以色列进行恐怖袭击的长期历史了。所有这些解释了为什么许多加沙人受够了哈马斯。 “Hamas spends money building tunnels, not investing in people,” a Gaza woman told me. She was stuck in Jerusalem, where her young son was receiving cancer treatment at a Palestinian hospital. “哈马斯把花钱在修隧道上，而不是投资在人民身上，”一名加沙女子对我说。她现在不得不留在耶路撒冷，因为她的小儿子正在那里的一家巴勒斯坦医院接受癌症治疗。 The despair in Gaza, she said, is such that for years some young men have simply dreamed of becoming “martyrs” and winning honor by killing Israelis. 她说，加沙的绝望情绪如此之大，以至于一些年轻人多年来只梦想当“烈士”，用杀死以色列人来赢得荣誉。 “In Gaza, there is no hope,” she said. “There is no life, there is nothing we have from living in Gaza. The only thing people can do is become a martyr.” “加沙没有希望，”她说。“没有生活，我们生活在加沙什么都没有。人们唯一能做的就是成为烈士。” The woman, whom I’m not identifying for fear of retaliation by Hamas, says that she is against the killing of civilians on either side and that now she weeps each day as she follows the bombing of Gaza and wonders if her husband and other children there will survive. Her son with cancer was sitting a few feet away, watching videos on his mom’s phone, and I looked over to see what he was watching. 我不会给出这名女子的姓名，因为担心她遭到哈马斯的报复。她说，她反对杀死任何一方的平民，现在她每天看到空袭加沙的新闻都会哭，她不知道仍在加沙的丈夫和其他几个孩子是否能幸免于难。她患癌症的儿子就坐在几米远的地方，他在用妈妈的手机看视频，我问他在看什么。 It was TikToks of his neighborhood being bombed. 他在看他家附近遭轰炸的TikTok。 He was glued to the screen as videos showed areas the size of multiple football fields near his home turned into rubble; satellite imagery shows other large areas pulverized as well. No one knows how many people are caught in the wreckage, but some Gazans told me they had heard cries from inside collapsed buildings. They lack proper equipment to rescue people, so eventually, the cries stop, and a stench rises. 他目不转睛地看着视频，看着他家附近的几个足球场大的地片变成瓦砾；卫星图像显示，大片其他地区也被夷为平地。没人知道还有多少人仍在废墟里，但一些加沙人告诉我，他们曾听到倒塌的建筑物里传出哭叫声。他们没有正规的救人设备，所以最终，哭叫声停止了，恶臭开始飘散。 Despite her own opposition to Hamas, the woman said that anger at the Israeli attacks will probably boost support for Hamas in the territory. 尽管她本人反对哈马斯，但该女子说，对以色列袭击的愤怒可能会增强加沙人对哈马斯的支持。 One well-educated young woman inside Gaza, Amal, told me over WhatsApp that the victims she knew of were mostly civilians, and she sounded full of despair. 仍在加沙的一名受过良好教育的年轻女性阿迈勒通过 WhatsApp对我说，她知道的受害者大都是平民，她的声音听上去充满了绝望。 “Constant bombardment has me feeling as if I am not human anymore, as if our souls mean nothing at all,” she told me. “We are being massacred.” “持续不断的轰炸让我觉得自己不再是人，似乎我们的灵魂微不足道，”她告诉我。“我们正在被屠杀。” 被困在约旦河西岸的加沙工人在祈祷。 WILLIAM KEO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESA 16-year-old girl in Gaza offered this message, conveyed through Save the Children: “It’s like we are overpaying the price for a sin we didn’t commit. We were always with peace and will always be.” 一名16岁的加沙女孩通过救助儿童会传递了这个信息：“这像是我们在为我们没有犯下的罪付出过高的代价。我们曾总是向往和平，而且永远会这样。” As Israel stands poised to escalate the war, there are two arguments to think through. The first is pragmatic: Can a siege and large-scale ground invasion succeed in erasing Hamas? 随着以色列准备将战争升级，有两个需要思考的问题。第一个是务实的：围困和大规模地面入侵加沙能成功地消灭哈马斯吗？ I’m skeptical, and when I hear backers of an invasion speak of removing Hamas, I have the same sinking feeling as when I heard hawks in 2002 and 2003 cheerily promising to liberate Iraq. Just because it would be good to eliminate a brutal regime doesn’t mean it is readily achievable; the Taliban can confirm that. 对此我持怀疑态度，听到支持入侵的人说起消灭哈马斯时，我的心情就像我在2002年和2003年听到鹰派们兴高采烈地承诺解放伊拉克时一样沉重。仅仅因为消灭残暴政权是好事并不意味着那是容易实现的；塔利班能证实这点。 The answers to the question of who will take over a battered Gaza after months of warfare also seem too iffy to me. It won’t be Egypt, said the former Egyptian foreign minister Nabil Fahmy. 谁将在几个月的战争后接管受到重创的加沙，这个问题的答案在我看来也太不确定。埃及前外交部长纳比勒·法赫米说，不会是埃及。 “I can’t imagine any international force being ready to take on what’s left there,” Fahmy told me. He thinks an Israeli invasion is unlikely to destroy Hamas and is more likely to inflame radicalism in Gaza, and he warns that President Biden has damaged American standing in the region because of his perceived indifference to Palestinian lives. “不管最后剩下什么，无法想象谁会去面对，”法赫米对我说。他认为以色列的入侵不太可能摧毁哈马斯，反而更有可能使加沙的激进主义恶化。他警告说，拜登总统已经损害了美国在该地区的名声，因为人们认为他对巴勒斯坦人的生命漠不关心。 The second prism through which to consider the Gaza war is a moral one, for we have values as well as interests. Decades from now when we look back at this moment, I suspect it’s the moral failures that we may most regret — the inability of some on the left (and many in the Arab world) to condemn the barbaric Oct. 7 attacks on Israelis, and the acceptance by so many Americans and Israelis that countless children and civilians must pay with their lives in what Netanyahu described as Israel’s “mighty vengeance.” 对加沙战争的第二个思考是道德方面的，因为我们除了利益还有价值观。我们在几十年后回顾这个时刻时，我觉得我们最懊悔的可能是道德上的失败，包括一些左翼人士（以及阿拉伯世界的许多人）没有谴责哈马斯10月7日对以色列人的野蛮袭击，以及许多美国人和以色列人接受了无数儿童和平民必须为内塔尼亚胡称之为以色列的“威猛报复”付出的生命代价。 When Israeli Jews were asked in a poll whether the suffering of Palestinian civilians should be taken into account in planning the war on Gaza, 83 percent said “not at all” or “not so much.” I can’t help feeling that while we say that all lives have equal value, President Biden has likewise greatly prioritized Israeli children over Gazan children. 以色列的犹太人在一项民意调查中被问及加沙作战计划是否应当考虑巴勒斯坦平民的痛苦时，83％的人表示“完全不用”或“不用太多”考虑。我不禁感到，虽然我们说所有的生命有同样的价值，但拜登总统已极大地提高以色列儿童相对于加沙儿童的优先权。 I give Biden great credit for promptly moving two aircraft carrier groups to the region, to help deter Hezbollah or others from joining the war. The White House was right to condemn the “grotesque” and “antisemitic” messages on some college campuses. And Biden’s compassion for victims of the Hamas attacks was so heartfelt that he built up political capital in Israel — but so far he hasn’t leveraged it to get significant aid into Gaza. 我高度赞扬拜登迅速将两个航母编队派往该地区，以帮助阻止真主党或其他人加入战争的做法。白宫谴责一些大学校园里出现“荒唐的”、“反犹太的”信息是对的。拜登对哈马斯袭击受害者的同情如此之真诚，以至于他已在以色列建立了政治资本，但到目前为止，他还没有利用这种资本让更多的援助进入加沙。 The United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, has condemned what he called “clear violations of international humanitarian law that we are witnessing in Gaza.” The Biden administration, which in the context of Ukraine constantly speaks of international law, vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for humanitarian pauses to deliver aid. 联合国秘书长古特雷斯谴责了他所说的“我们在加沙看到的明显违反国际人道主义法的行为”。拜登政府在乌克兰问题上不断提国际法，却否决了安理会要求暂停空袭为加沙提供人道主义援助的决议。 Every account I’ve heard from Gaza this past week, including directly from people there who despise Hamas, suggests that the civilian toll there has been horrendous. One gauge is that at least 53 United Nations staff members have been killed so far, including teachers, an engineer, a psychologist and a gynecologist. More than 20 journalists have been killed, too, and an Al Jazeera correspondent lost his wife, son, daughter and grandson to an airstrike. 过去一周我在加沙听到的每一个说法，包括从鄙视哈马斯的人那里直接听到的都使我相信，加沙的平民伤亡人数令人震惊。一个依据是，迄今为止已有至少53名联合国工作人员丧生，包括教师、一名工程师、一名心理学家，以及一名妇科医生。还有20多名记者丧生，一名半岛电视台记者的妻子、儿子、女儿和孙子已在空袭中丧生。 And now the suffering in Gaza is set to get much worse. 加沙的痛苦现在将变得更加严重。 在废墟中搜寻以色列对加沙南部进行空袭的遇难者。YOUSEF MASOUD FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESThat’s partly because hospitals are running out of diesel fuel, and Israel is not allowing fuel into the territory. I understand the reason: Hamas could use diesel fuel for its attacks on Israelis, and an Israeli military spokesman also told me that United Nations alarmists may be exaggerating the shortage. Yet if hospitals lack fuel and cannot operate generators, babies in incubators may die along with people needing dialysis or surgeries. Some 50,000 pregnant women in Gaza would face greater risks if hospitals can’t take them. 这部分是因为医院的柴油即将耗尽，而以色列不允许燃料进入加沙。我明白原因：哈马斯袭击以色列人时可能用柴油，以色列军方发言人也告诉我，联合国的危言耸听者可能夸大了柴油短缺的情况。但是，如果医院缺乏燃料，无法使用发电机的话，保温箱中的新生儿、需要做透析或手术的人可能都会死亡。加沙的约5万名孕妇会面临更大的危险，如果医院无法接收她们的话。 “We are on the brink of collapse,” Philippe Lazzarini, who runs the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, the largest aid agency in Gaza, told me. “我们正处于崩溃的边缘，”联合国巴勒斯坦难民机构负责人菲利普·拉扎里尼对我说，该机构是加沙最大的援助机构。 Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya, the lead physician in Gaza for the aid group MedGlobal, put it this way, “When the fuel runs out tomorrow, this hospital will rapidly become a mass grave.” 援助组织MedGlobal在加沙的首席医生胡萨姆·阿布·萨菲亚是这样说的：“燃料明天耗尽时，这家医院将很快变成大坟地。” Because of the siege, Gaza is also running out of insulin and anesthetic, according to Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organization. 世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞博士说，由于围困，加沙的胰岛素和麻醉剂很快将用光。 Fadi Abu Shammalah, who works in Gaza with a civil society organization called Just Vision, visited the United States this year at the invitation of the State Department, presumably because he was seen as a potential bridge across cultures. “I love you,” he told me over the phone, speaking of Americans. “You are so kind to me.” 法迪·阿布·沙马拉为加沙名为Just Vision的民间社会组织工作，美国国务院今年曾邀他访美，想必是因为国务院视他为跨文化使者。“我爱你们，”他在电话中对我说，他指的是美国人。“你们对我真好。” I thanked him but noted that we were also providing some of the bombs being dropped near him. He said he doubted that the Americans he so admired understood how the war was actually playing out against civilians. 我谢了他，但指出我们也提供了一些投在他家附近的炸弹。他说，他认为那些他如此钦佩的美国人未必可能真正了解这场战争给平民造成的苦难。 “Is it a war against Hamas, really?” he asked. “Or it’s against my kids?” He said that as bombs dropped, he tried to calm his terrified children by saying that if they could hear the explosions, they were safe; it’s the bombs you never hear that kill you. That backfired; when there was silence, the children feared they were about to be obliterated. “这真的是一场针对哈马斯的战争吗？”他问道。“还是一场针对我的孩子的战争？”他说，炸弹落下时，他试图安慰自己受惊的孩子们。他说，如果他们听到爆炸声了，他们就安全了；炸死人的是那些听不见声音的炸弹。他的话产生了事与愿违的后果：当孩子们什么声音都听不到时，他们担心自己会被彻底消灭。 “One of the reasons the Oct. 7 attacks were so horrible was because adult men slaughtered children,” said Sari Bashi of Human Rights Watch. “But adult men are slaughtering children every day in Gaza by dropping bombs on their homes.” “10月7日的袭击如此恐怖的原因之一是成年男人屠杀儿童，”人权观察组织的萨里·巴什说。“但在加沙，成年男人每天都在屠杀儿童，向他们的家投炸弹。” Israel faces an agonizing challenge: A neighboring territory is ruled by well-armed terrorists who have committed unimaginable atrocities, aim to commit more and now shelter in tunnels beneath a population of more than two million people. It’s a nightmare. But the sober question must be: What policies will reduce the risk, not inflame it, while honoring the intrinsic value of Palestinian life as well as Israeli life? 以色列面临着一个需要苦苦思索的挑战：与之相邻的一片土地由装备精良的恐怖分子统治，他们犯下了不可想象的暴行，他们的宗旨是犯下更多暴行，现在他们躲藏在一个人口逾200万的地方的地下隧道里。这是一场噩梦。但必需考虑一个冷静的问题：什么样的政策将降低风险，而不是加剧风险，同时尊重巴勒斯坦人生命和以色列人生命的内在价值？ People will answer that question in different ways, and I don’t claim to have all the answers. But I think someday we will look back in horror at both the Hamas butchery in Israel and at the worsening tableau of suffering in Gaza in which we are complicit. 人们将以不同的方式回答这个问题，我并不是说我知道所有问题的答案。但我认为，当有一天回过头来看，我们将对哈马斯在以色列制造的屠杀，以及（我们对之负有责任的）加沙日益恶化的苦难场景都深感惊骇。 纪思道(Nicholas Kristof)1984年加入时报，2001年成为专栏作家。他曾因对中国及达尔富尔的报道两次获得普利策奖。他即将出版回忆录《追逐希望：一名记者的生活》(Chasing Hope: A Reporter’s Life)。欢迎在Instagram、Twitter、Facebook和Threads上关注他。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道以色列入侵加沙将是一场怎样的战争2023年10月25日 为什么占领加沙对以色列来说是不明智的2023年10月18日 巴以之间错失的和平机会2023年10月16日 在巴以战争中寻找道德指南针2023年10月13日 最受欢迎中国人哀悼李克强，也哀悼一个希望尚存的时代 不，习近平不会立即“武统”台湾 中国官方寻求调停巴以冲突，民间反犹反以情绪高涨 中国前总理李克强去世：习近平权威阴影下的温和派 再见，钱德勒：马修·佩里的光芒与挣扎 为何巴以问题在美国大学引发风暴 以色列对哈马斯多年误判和政策失败如何酿成恶果 以色列对加沙轰炸规模之大、伤亡之重令全球瞩目 中国国防部长李尚福被免职，此前已近两月未公开露面 从胡耀邦之死到天安门的枪声 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App © 2023 The New York Times Company.