习近平的新难题：如何悼念江泽民？For China’s Leader, Another Dilemma: How to Mourn Jiang Zemin储百亮2022年12月1日 北京周三播出的新闻里有已故中国前领导人江泽民的照片。国家主席习近平如何安排江泽民的治丧活动，将是未来几天对他的考验。 NOEL CELIS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESThe deaths of Chinese Communist leaders are always fraught moments of political theater, and especially so now with the passing of Jiang Zemin soon after a wave of public defiance on a scale unseen since Mr. Jiang came to power in 1989. 中共领导人的去世总是充满政治戏剧的时刻，尤其是现在江泽民的去世，就在此前，中国爆发了自1989年他出任中共总书记以来未曾有过的公开反抗浪潮。 China’s sternly autocratic current leader, Xi Jinping, must preside over the mourning for Mr. Jiang, who died on Wednesday at 96, while he also grapples with widespread protests against China’s exceptionally stringent Covid-19 restrictions. The demonstrations have at times also boldly called for China to return to the path of political liberalization that seemed at least thinkable, even openly discussable, under Mr. Jiang during the 1990s. 江泽民于周三去世，享年96岁。中国严厉专制的现任领导人习近平必须出面主持江泽民的悼念活动，同时，他还要努力设法解决针对中国异常严苛的新冠清零措施的广泛抗议活动。有些抗议者已大胆地呼吁中国回到政治自由化的道路上去，在江泽民领导下的20世纪90年代，政治自由化似乎至少可以想象的，甚至可以公开讨论。 How Mr. Xi orchestrates that feat — paying tribute to Mr. Jiang while preventing him from becoming a symbolic cudgel against Mr. Xi’s politics — will be another challenge for him in the coming weeks, as China tries to manage rising coronavirus cases and an economic slowdown. 随着中国努力应对不断上升的新冠病毒感染病例和经济增长放缓，习近平如何安排悼念活动将是他在未来几周面临的又一个挑战，悼念活动既要表达对江泽民的敬意，同时也要防止让他变成反习的象征性棍棒。 “We mourn Comrade Jiang Zemin with a heavy heart, and will turn our grief into strength,” Mr. Xi said on Wednesday, according to an official summary of his comments to a visiting Laotian leader. The digital home page of People’s Daily, the party’s main newspaper, turned to a mournful black and white. 据中国官媒对习近平与来访的老挝领导人会晤的简短报道，习近平在周三表示，“我们沉痛悼念江泽民同志，将化悲痛为力量。”中共主要报纸《人民日报》网站的主页变成了表示哀悼的黑白两色。 习近平在中共2017年在北京召开的全国代表大会上问候江泽民。江泽民逝世的消息已让中国人潮流般地涌到网上表示哀悼。 LINTAO ZHANG/GETTY IMAGES“How they mourn his death may potentially provoke more anger, even though Jiang Zemin never enjoyed the popularity Hu Yaobang did,” said Lynette H. Ong, a political scientist at the University of Toronto who studies China, referring to the leader whose sudden death in 1989 ignited the Tiananmen Square protest movement. “At the very least, it will give the people a legitimate reason to congregate and mourn.” “虽然江泽民从未享有过胡耀邦曾享有的那种爱戴，但中共哀悼江泽民去世的方式有激起更多愤怒的可能，”多伦多大学研究中国的政治学者王惠玲(Lynette H. Ong)说，她提到的胡耀邦在1989年突然去世，引发了天安门广场的抗议运动。“至少会给人们一个聚集和哀悼的正当理由。” Almost instantly, the announcement of Mr. Jiang’s passing brought a torrent of online tributes from Chinese people. Quite a few made thinly veiled, often sardonic comparisons between Mr. Jiang and Mr. Xi, whose authoritarian policies have taken censorship and ideological controls to new heights. 江泽民逝世的消息几乎立刻让中国人潮流般地涌到网上表示哀悼。不少人对江习两人进行了几乎不加掩饰、常常带有讽刺意味的比较，习近平的威权主义政策已将中国的审查制度和对意识形态的控制提升到了新的高度。 One comment on Weibo, a social media service in China, recalled when Mr. Jiang in 1998 used a megaphone to urge rescuers to stop flood barriers from breaking. The comment said Chinese society at the time was “vigorously advancing, high spirited, singing as we advanced into a new era.” 中国社交媒体服务平台微博上的一条评论回忆了江泽民1998年拿着喇叭在大堤上动员人们抗洪的情景。评论写道，当时的中国社会“蓬勃向上，意义（气）风发，唱着走进新时代”。 Many other remarks were not quite as effusive. As a leader, Mr. Jiang could be turgid and repressive when his political survival called for it, including against followers of the banned Falun Gong spiritual movement. He also was well known for his high opinion of himself and his equally high-hitched pants. 另外的许多评论并不这么热情洋溢。江泽民担任最高领导人期间，出于政治生存需要也会采取过度和镇压做法，包括对被取缔的法轮功精神运动的追随者们。他也以自视过高和穿同样过高的裤腰而闻名。 But Chinese people found plenty of reasons to think more fondly of Mr. Jiang’s time in high central office from 1989 to 2004, when China shifted from a post-Tiananmen political freeze to years of giddy, sometimes reckless and polluting growth. The party tightly controlled political life, but it allowed rights lawyers, commercial news outlets, combative dissidents and liberal-minded party scholars to participate in public debate — a modicum of freedom that does not exist now. 但中国人找到了很多愈加怀念江泽民的理由，在他从1989年到2004年担任中共中央总书记期间，中国从“六四”镇压后的政治冰冻期进入了令人头晕目眩、有时不顾一切，而且污染严重的多年经济增长阶段。那时候，虽然中共严格控制着政治生活，但也允许维权律师、商业新闻媒体、好斗的异见人士和有自由思想的中共学者公开辩论，这些少量的自由现已不复存在。 中国前领导人和现任领导人的大幅画像（从左到右）：毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛、习近平。 中共领导人去世通常是充满政治戏剧的时刻。 JADE GAO/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES“Toad, we blamed you wrongly before; you’re the ceiling, not the floor,” said one comment, citing a popular nickname for Mr. Jiang, drawing on his squat figure and large glasses. “蛤，我们以前错怪你了；你是天花板，不是地板，”一条评论写道，用的是江泽民在网上一个常见的绰号，取笑他的方正身材和大眼镜。 Another comment recalled 1997, when Chinese audiences were allowed to enjoy Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet in a movie with a relatively risqué story for that time in China. “Farewell,” said one popular comment marking Mr. Jiang’s death, “Thank you for letting us all watch Titanic that year.” 另一条评论提到1997年他允许中国观众观看莱昂纳多迪·卡普里奥和凯特·温斯莱特在一部电影中的表演，片中的故事对当时来说相当有伤风化。“永别了，”一条悼念江泽民逝世的走红评论写道，“感谢您当年让我们都能看《泰坦尼克号》。” Hours after his death, censors on Weibo quickly moved to restrict comments on the news, apparently to prevent relatively harmless nostalgia from turning into barbed criticisms of Mr. Xi and the party, especially after several days of political turbulence. The “Titanic” comment was erased after garnering tens of thousands of likes. 在江泽民去世后的几小时里，微博平台的审查员们迅速行动起来，对有关这条消息的评论进行限制，显然是为了防止相对无害的怀旧情绪变成对习近平和中共的尖锐批评，尤其是在几天的政治动荡之后。提《泰坦尼克号》的那条评论在获得了几万个点赞后被删除。 “In death, Hu Yaobang became a heroic martyr, while in life he didn’t enjoy that reputation at all,” said Geremie R. Barmé, a Sinologist in New Zealand. “In the nostalgic haze of today, the same could happen with Jiang Zemin.” “胡耀邦死后变成了一名英雄烈士，他活着的时候根本没有那种名声，”新西兰汉学家白杰明(Geremie R. Barmé)说。“在今天的怀旧迷雾中，同样的事情也可能发生在江泽民身上。” On the weekend, protesters in Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu and other Chinese cities gathered in the hundreds and thousands to denounce stringent, intrusive and onerous policies aimed at stamping out coronavirus cases. Some seized on the opportunity to also call for democratic change, freedom of the press, an end to pervasive censorship, and even the removal of Mr. Xi and the Communist Party. 上周末，上海、北京、成都和中国其他城市都发生了有成百上千人参加的抗议活动，人们谴责严厉、扰民、费力的新冠清零政策。还有人借机呼吁民主改革、新闻自由、结束无处不在的审查，甚至要求习近平和中共下台。 The defiance had some distant echoes with the movement of 1989, when the death of Hu Yaobang, a reform-minded leader who had been pushed from power, ignited student protests that occupied Tiananmen Square until an armed crackdown that reached the square on June 4. The deaths of other Chinese leaders have also become occasions for protest and dissent, especially Zhou Enlai in 1976. 这些反抗与1989年的民主运动有些遥遥呼应之处。有改革思想的领导人胡耀邦被迫下台后于1989年去世，引发了学生抗议运动，他们占领了天安门广场，直到6月4日的武装镇压。其他中国领导人的去世也曾成为抗议和表达异见的场合，尤其是周恩来1976年的去世。 向自由派改革者胡耀邦致敬，1989年摄于北京。胡耀邦的死引发了天安门广场的抗议运动。 CATHERINE HENRIETTE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESMr. Xi could use the mourning rituals for Mr. Jiang to try to “recover from his isolated situation,” Zhang Lifan, a historian in Beijing, said in written answers to questions about the death of Mr. Jiang. 北京的历史学者章立凡在书面回答有关江泽民逝世的问题时写道，习近平“可能是想借丧事强调正统地位，挽回孤立处境”。 “Whether this will be a release from the nightmare of June 4 or bring it back, we just have to wait and see,” Mr. Zhang said. “此举究竟会摆脱六四噩梦还是召来六四噩梦，还有待观察，”他写道。 But any repeat of 1989 appears extremely unlikely under Mr. Xi’s heavy net of security, suggested Willy Wo-Lap Lam, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation who analyzes the Chinese Communist Party. “The death of Jiang Zemin will not have a ripple effect in Chinese politics,” he said. 但詹姆斯敦基金会研究中共的高级研究员林和立认为，在习近平巨大的国家安全网下，重演1989年的可能性极小。“江泽民之死不会给中国政治带来涟漪效应，”他说。 Even so, Mr. Xi must orchestrate the funerary events to ensure that it stays that way. In announcing Mr. Jiang’s death, the party paid tribute to his achievements, especially in advancing economic changes and modernizing China’s military. It also urged the country to rally around Mr. Xi. 即便如此，习近平也必须精心安排追悼活动，以确保其不变成更大的事件。中共在宣布江泽民逝世时，对他的成就表示了敬意，尤其是在推动经济改革和中国军队现代化方面。讣告还呼吁全国人民团结在习近平周围。 An announcement on mourning arrangements for Mr. Jiang indicated that a memorial service would be held and that — following party custom — international leaders would not be invited. 一份关于江泽民治丧安排的公告表示将举行追悼会，但按照中共的惯例，不会邀请外国领导人参加。 If the deaths of previous major Chinese leaders like Deng Xiaoping are a guide, Mr. Xi may also preside over the service in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, bringing together thousands of officials, dignitaries and probably Mr. Jiang’s family members. But fears of the spread of the coronavirus may limit the guest list this time. 如果以中国以前的主要领导人，比如邓小平的治丧活动为参照的话，习近平可能会在人民大会堂主持有数千名官员、政要，可能还有江泽民家人出席的追悼会。但由于害怕新冠病毒传播，参加这次追悼会的人数可能有限。 北京人民大会堂。习近平可能会在这里主持江泽民的追悼会，但预计不会允许国际来宾参加。 WANG ZHAO/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESNo matter how small the ceremony, however, there will also be the tricky question of whether and how to include Hu Jintao, China’s top leader in the decade between Mr. Jiang and Mr. Xi. Mr. Hu’s name was on a long list of officials and retired officials who will oversee arrangements for the mourning activities. 但无论追悼会的规模多小，都有一个棘手的问题，那就是要不要包括胡锦涛，以及怎样将他包括进来，胡锦涛在江习之间的十年担任中国最高领导人。胡锦涛的名字已出现在由官员和退休官员组成的江泽民治丧委员会长名单上。 But Mr. Hu, notoriously buttoned down while in power, caused a rare commotion during a party congress in October that disrupted Mr. Xi’s triumphant moment before he won a new five-year term in power. 胡锦涛在执政期间以保守著称，他在今年10月召开的中共二十大上引起了罕见的骚动，搅乱了习近平即将获得第三个五年任期前的胜利时刻。 On the last day of the congress, Mr. Hu appeared dazed, reached for a document on a table in front of him, and after some commotion was abruptly escorted out of the hall while other senior officials mostly stared ahead, stone-faced. Theories spread that Mr. Hu was somehow protesting against Mr. Xi, though Mr. Hu’s confused expression suggests that illness was the more likely cause. Still, Mr. Xi will not want a repeat. 在最后一天的闭幕式上，胡锦涛显得有点茫然，他伸手去拿面前桌上的一份文件，一阵骚动之后，他突然被带出会场，其他高级官员则大多面无表情地看着前方。有个说法是，胡锦涛是在以某种方式抗议习近平，但胡锦涛脸上的困惑表情暗示，疾病是更可能的原因。尽管如此，习近平一定不想看到同样的情况再次发生。 Chang Che、David Pierson、Joy Dong、Claire Fu和Amy Chang Chien对本文有报道贡献。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@ChuBailiang。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道江泽民去世，享年96岁2022年11月30日 最受欢迎习近平的新难题：如何悼念江泽民？ 扒下习近平“皇帝的新衣” 中共前最高领导人江泽民去世，享年96岁 中国抗议者面临的阻碍与前景 习近平“加冕”后，抗议浪潮挑战其威权统治 广州城中村民众抗议封控，接连两日与警方发生冲突 中国共产党正在失去民心 中国人的抗议表达：白纸、方程式和“对对对对”墙 清零给中国经济带来沉重代价：高失业率、增长远低于预期 “膜蛤文化”盛行中国网络，或为影射习近平 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.