观点美国真的必须向中国发动一场新冷战吗？Do We Really Need to Have a Cold War With China?JACOB DREYER2023年3月31日 BEN WISEMANSHANGHAI — I wore red underpants for much of last year. 上海——去年大部分时间我都穿着红内裤。 It was the Year of the Tiger, my Chinese zodiac sign, when tradition says that ill fortune will seek you out. Red underwear is supposed to keep you safe because Chinese demons supposedly fear the color red. 去年是中国的虎年，按照十二生肖也是我的本命年，传统说法说厄运会找上门来。红色内衣辟邪，因为据说中国的魔鬼怕红色。 It didn’t work. 我照做了，但不管用。 It was a rough year. For most of 2022, we remained sealed off from the world by China’s strict pandemic policy. Shanghai, my home for the past decade, endured a particularly traumatic Covid lockdown that kept us confined at home for two months starting in late March, scrambling to obtain groceries. While locked down, we found out that my wife, who is Chinese, was pregnant. It took a combination of bluster and desperate pleas to local officials to get us to a hospital for a prenatal checkup. 去年是艰难的一年。因为严格的新冠“清零”政策，我们在2022年的大部分时间里与世界隔绝。上海是我过去十年生活的地方，去年它经历了一次特别痛苦的封城，从3月下旬起，我们被困在家中两个月，想尽办法购买日用品和食物。封城期间我们发现我妻子怀孕了，她是中国人。在对社区的工作人员软硬兼施、又是威吓又是求情后，他们才送我妻子去医院做了产前检查。 When the lockdown ended last June, I emerged, blinking into the sunlight, to find that China had been transformed into America’s enemy. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was calling China a threat to “universal values” in language that made me think of the U.S. containment policy toward the former Soviet Union. The rhetoric has only hardened since then. Today China is labeled an “existential” threat to the United States; there is talk of a new cold war. 去年6月封城结束后，我终于出了家门，耀眼的阳光让我睁不开眼睛，我突然发现中国已经变成了美国的敌人。国务卿布林肯称中国是对“普世价值观”的威胁，这个说法让我想起了美国曾对苏联采取的遏制政策。那之后，政府的言辞变得更加强硬。今天，中国已被贴上了威胁美国“生存”的标签；新冷战之说甚嚣尘上。 Really? Must we wage a new cold war? 真的吗？我们必须发动一场新冷战吗？ From Shanghai, the idea seems absurd. The city’s people are immersed in American culture, having grown up using iPhones, sipping Starbucks coffee, following the N.B.A. and polishing their colloquial English by watching “Friends” (there’s even a “Friends”-themed cafe in Shanghai, designed to look like the sitcom’s coffee shop, Central Perk). 从上海这边看，新冷战的想法似乎很荒谬。生活在上海的人沉浸在美国文化中，从小到大接触的是iPhone、星巴克咖啡和NBA赛事，有些人通过看美剧《老友记》(Friends)来提高英文口语水平，（上海甚至有一家以《老友记》为主题的咖啡馆，里面的设计看上去就像是这部情景喜剧里的咖啡馆Central Perk）。 Chinese friends of mine studied in the United States and listen to American pop music. My wife watched YouTube videos about child-rearing by U.S. influencers. Vintage clothing shops, a music lounge called Jazz at Lincoln Center Shanghai, the N.Y.U. Shanghai campus — the city incessantly, self-consciously, compares itself to New York. Many urban Chinese are closer to American lifestyles and sensibilities than they are to those of their parents (and many young Americans likewise have more favorable views of China than the generation before). 我的中国朋友们去美国念书，听美国流行音乐。我妻子在 YouTube上看美国网红发的育儿视频。这里有许多古着店、纽约大学上海校区和一个名为“林肯爵士乐上海中心”的音乐俱乐部，上海不断地刻意将自己与纽约做比较。中国许多城市居民的生活方式和感受能力更接近美国人，而非他们的父辈（同样，许多美国年轻人对中国的看法也比上一代人更友好）。 My work sits at the intersection of these worlds. I edit books by Chinese writers about their country’s politics and economy, publishing them in English so that the West can understand their views. We must try to understand what they are thinking, the inherited fears, traumas, resentments and intergenerational conflicts that shape how they interact with us. 我在这两个世界的交汇处工作。我编辑中国学者们写的中国政治和经济书籍的英文版，让西方能够了解他们的观点。我们必须努力了解他们在想什么，了解他们内在的恐惧、创伤、怨恨和代际冲突，这些东西影响了他们与我们的互动方式。 Just underneath the paint on Shanghai’s trendy new restaurant facades are slogans from the Cultural Revolution, still faintly visible in some places, like scars in the psychology of an older generation that make for a paranoid conservatism. This trauma is barely understood by younger Chinese, who are shielded by censorship and a code of silence from knowing in detail the horrors of China’s recent past. China is a diverse society with contesting visions of the future, a nation constantly remaking itself. 上海时髦的新餐厅外墙油漆下面掩盖的是文化大革命的标语，有些仍依稀可见，有点像让老一辈人走向偏执保守主义的心理伤疤。年轻的中国人对这些创伤几乎毫无了解，政府的审查制度、加上人们不愿谈论过去，让年轻人无法详细了解中国不远的过去的恐怖经历。中国是一个多元化社会，人们对未来有着不同的看法，国家也在不断地改造自身。 The influential Chinese scholars I work with still hold a deep respect for the United States, its values and its civil society. In fact, many of the Chinese whom I know have more confidence in America’s durability than some of my anxious friends in the United States, who fret about Trumpism and what they see as other threats to democracy and liberal values. 我经手编辑的那些书籍的作者是一些有影响力的中国学者，他们仍对美国、美国的价值观和公民社会怀有深深的敬意。事实上，我认识的许多中国人对美国持久性的信心要高于我在美国的一些忧心忡忡的朋友们，后者对特朗普主义和他们认为对民主和自由价值观的其他威胁焦虑不安。 Zheng Yongnian, a professor who holds a Ph.D. from Princeton and is an expert on China’s changing place in the world, told me that the Chinese nationalist view of a rising China and a declining United States is far from universally accepted here and that “many people, including me, continue to be positive on the U.S.” Yao Yang, an economist who advocates for a strengthened social security and welfare system in China, was inspired by the ideas of the progressive politician Robert M. La Follette of Wisconsin, where Mr. Yao studied for his doctorate. 从普林斯顿获得博士学位的郑永年教授是研究中国世界地位变化的专家，他告诉我，中国民族主义者关于中国崛起和美国衰落的观点远未得到中国人的普遍接受，“包括我在内的许多人继续对美国持乐观看法。”经济学家姚洋提倡加强中国社会福利保障系统是受到威斯康星州进步政治人士罗伯特·拉福莱特想法的启发，姚洋曾在该州攻读博士学位。 Some leading intellectuals tell me that they resent Chinese online influencers and social-media nationalists for the same reason I dislike Fox News: They’re opportunists, weakening their country with lies. 一些最杰出的知识分子告诉我，他们厌恶中国网络上的那些大V和社交媒体民族主义者，原因与我不喜欢福克斯新闻的原因相同：那些人是机会主义者，用谎言来削弱自己的国家。 Chinese nationalists, leftists, economic liberals — it’s hard to find a Chinese thinker alive today who hasn’t been profoundly influenced by American society and culture. The United States has been a lodestar for China throughout its reform era, which began in the late 1970s and continues to transform the country. For those who visited the United States, often to study, it was typically the learning experience of a lifetime, nourishing a drive to make their own country more modern, stronger, better. 在中国的民族主义者、左派、经济自由主义者中，很难找到一个未曾深受美国的社会和文化影响的当代中国思想者。在中国的整个改革开放时期，美国一直是指路明灯，中国的改革开放始于20世纪70年代后期，仍在继续改变着这个国家。对那些去过美国的人（通常是去读书）来说，那往往是让他们终生受益的经历，让他们滋生了把自己的国家变得更现代化、更强大、更美好的动力。 The revisionist history wielded by conservatives in both China and the United States threatens to bring back the fearful militarism of the original Cold War, with its coups and proxy conflicts. Americans tell ourselves that we won because we were the good guys, simplistic language that is being revived in Congress. 中国和美国的保守派们使用的修正主义历史，扬言要把第一次冷战期间令人担忧的军国主义及其政变和代理人冲突带回来。美国人告诉自己，之所以赢得那场冷战是因为我们是好人，这种简单化的语言正在国会再现。 But we can only hope to remain the good guys by sticking to values like free speech, generosity and the confidence that our culture can withstand challenge. Sadly, those values are threatened when the Chinese American Representative Judy Chu’s loyalty to the United States is questioned by one of her congressional colleagues. They’re threatened when a bill is introduced to the Texas legislature that would ban Chinese students from the state’s universities. And they’re threatened when we deepen ties with dubious leaders like President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines — son of the corrupt and brutal former dictator — and increase our military presence there. 但是，我们只能通过坚持我们的价值观，才有希望继续当好人，这些价值观包括言论自由、宽宏大量，以及相信我们的文化经受得住挑战。可悲的是，这些价值观正在受到威胁。当一名国会议员怀疑自己的同事、华裔国会议员赵美心对美国是否忠诚时；当得克萨斯州立法机构将一项禁止中国学生在该州读大学的法案提交讨论时；当我们与菲律宾总统（腐败残暴的前独裁者之子）小马科斯这种靠不住的领导人加深关系、增加我们在菲律宾的军事存在时，这些价值观都在受到威胁。 We could win a cold war with China yet still lose some of what makes us great. We toppled Saddam Hussein and crippled Al Qaeda, but at the cost of reduced freedom in the United States through extended powers for the N.S.A., the Patriot Act and the festering sore of Guantánamo Bay. 我们可以赢得与中国的冷战，但仍会失去一些让我们之所以伟大的东西。虽然我们推翻了萨达姆·侯赛因，削弱了基地组织，但代价是通过扩大国家安全局的权力、实施《爱国者法案》、让关塔那摩湾的脓疮继续恶化，减少了美国的自由。 The United States can badger China about its flaws all it wants. But is our ultimate goal to score political points or to live in a peaceful world where we cooperate on real problems like climate change? America is strongest when it leads by example, by remaining open, generous and free. 美国在指责中国的缺点上想怎样做都行。但我们的最终目标是在政治上挫败对手，还是生活在一个和平的世界里，让我们能够就气候变化等实际问题进行合作？美国应该保持开放、宽宏大量和自由，只有以身作则，才最强大。 My son, a product of these two great nations, was born in Shanghai in November. When I hold him, I wonder whether a war or other troubles might lead to our deportation or force painful choices on his American father and Chinese mother. China’s people are still welcoming; strangers sometimes approach me to say that they appreciate having foreigners in their country or to say things like “U.S.A., number one!” 我儿子去年11月在上海出生了，他是这两个伟大国家交往的结晶。我抱着他时脑子里想的是，是否会爆发一场战争或发生其他情况导致我们父子被驱逐出境，或迫使他的美国父亲和中国母亲做出某种痛苦选择。中国人民依然热情好客；陌生人有时会走过来对我说，他们很高兴有外国人在他们的国家生活，或者说些“美国，第一！”之类的话。 Those sweet and encouraging moments needn’t disappear. But we must make smart choices. Canceling an important diplomatic visit to China over a balloon was our choice; moving past that could be our choice, too. 这些令人愉快且鼓舞人心的时刻不一定会消失。但我们必须做出明智的选择。因为一个气球取消对中国的重要外交访问是我们的选择；让这件事成为过去也可以是我们的选择。 I just returned to Shanghai from my first trip home to Virginia in three years. To my relief, I didn’t sense belligerence toward China. Many people agreed with me that our policies and political rhetoric didn’t make sense. 我最近刚刚回到上海——之前我回了一趟弗吉尼亚州，三年来第一次返回家乡。令我宽慰的是，在那里我没有感觉到对中国的好战情绪。许多人同意我的看法，即我们的现行政策和政治辞令不合情理。 Maybe we’ll figure out a better way forward. But I’m keeping the red underpants handy just in case. 也许我们将找到一条更好的前进道路。但我要把红内裤放在手边，以防万一。 Jacob Dreyer是一名撰稿人和编辑，过去15年的大部分时间里生活在上海。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道美中冲突加剧：不是冷战胜似冷战2022年9月14日 美中正在进入一场新冷战吗？2021年10月18日 这场中美新冷战是如何酝酿爆发的2020年7月23日 中美关系急剧降温，走向新冷战2020年7月15日 最受欢迎台湾前总统马英九历史性访问中国大陆 从动视暴雪与网易“分手”看中国打击私营部门的代价 亿万富翁、反共先锋和诈骗嫌犯：多面郭文贵 为什么“中国金融末日”没有成为现实 TikTok上什么最火？为周受资说话 美国真的必须向中国发动一场新冷战吗？ 特朗普被起诉，成为史上首位面临刑事指控的美国前总统 中国副总理何立峰：主管经济的习近平忠诚追随者 逮捕前总统不会让国家丧失体面，只会加强民主 欧洲多国领导人接连访问中国，权衡对华战略 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2023 The New York Times Company.