好文要文 观点希拉里·克林顿：共和党的算盘正中习近平和普京下怀Hillary Clinton: Republicans Are Playing Into the Hands of Putin and Xi希拉里·克林顿2023年4月25日 ILLUSTRATION BY SAM WHITNEY/THE NEW YORK TIMESSpeaker of the House Kevin McCarthy is making a ransom demand. His hostages are the economy and America’s credibility. Mr. McCarthy has threatened that House Republicans will refuse to raise the federal government’s debt ceiling, potentially triggering a global financial crisis, unless President Biden agrees to deep cuts to education, health care, food assistance for poor children and other services. 众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡提出了赎金要求。他的人质是经济和美国的信誉。麦卡锡威胁说，除非拜登总统同意大幅削减教育、医疗保健、贫困儿童食物援助和其他服务的开支，众议院共和党人将拒绝提高联邦政府的债务上限，这可能引发全球金融危机。 Mr. McCarthy repeatedly invoked the threat of Chinese competition as justification. The speaker is right that this debate has significant national security implications — just not the way he says. 麦卡锡一再援引中国竞争的威胁作为理由。议长是对的，这场辩论对国家安全有重大影响——只是不像他所说的那样。 With Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine in its second year, tensions with China continuing to rise and global threats looming, from future pandemics to climate change, the world is looking to the United States for strong, steady leadership. Congressional brinkmanship on the debt ceiling sends the opposite message to our allies and our adversaries: that America is divided, distracted and can’t be counted on. 随着俄罗斯对乌克兰的野蛮入侵进入第二年，与中国的紧张关系继续加剧，从未来的大流行到气候变化等各种全球威胁迫在眉睫，世界正期待美国发挥强大、稳定的领导作用。国会在债务上限问题上的边缘政策向我们的盟友和对手发出了相反的信息：美国是分裂的、不专注的、无法指望的。 Let’s start by dispelling a myth. The debt ceiling debate is not about authorizing new spending. It’s about Congress paying debts it has already incurred. Refusing to pay would be like skipping out on your mortgage, except with global consequences. Because of the central role of the United States — and the dollar — in the international economy, defaulting on our debts could spark a worldwide financial meltdown. 让我们先来破除一个迷思。关于债务上限的讨论不是关于批准新的支出。而是关于国会偿还已有的债务。拒绝还债就像放弃你的抵押贷款，只是前者会产生全球性的后果。由于美国和美元在国际经济中的核心地位，我们的债务违约可能引发全球金融危机。 Republicans in Congress have consistently voted to raise the debt ceiling with little drama when a fellow Republican is in the White House — including three times under President Donald Trump. But during Democratic administrations, they have weaponized the debt ceiling to extort concessions, despite the danger of default. 当共和党人入主白宫时，国会中的共和党人一直投票赞成提高债务上限，几乎没有什么波折——包括唐纳德·特朗普总统执政期间的三次。但在民主党执政期间，他们不顾违约的危险，把债务上限当作勒索的武器，来换取让步。 I was secretary of state during the debt ceiling crisis of 2011, so I saw firsthand how this partisan posturing damaged our nation’s credibility around the world. 我在2011年债务上限危机期间担任国务卿，因此亲眼目睹了这种从党派出发的装腔作势如何损害了我们国家在全球的信誉。 I vividly remember walking into a Hong Kong ballroom that July for a conference organized by the local American Chamber of Commerce. Congressional Republicans were refusing to raise the debt ceiling, and the prospect of a default was getting closer by the day. I was swarmed by nervous businessmen from across Asia. They peppered me with questions about the fight back home over the debt ceiling and what it would mean for the international economy. The regional and global stability that America had guaranteed for decades was the foundation on which they had built companies and fortunes. But could they still trust the United States? Were we really going to spark another worldwide financial crisis? And the question that no one wanted to ask out loud: If America faltered, would China swoop in to fill the vacuum? 我清楚地记得，那年7月，我走进香港的一间宴会厅，参加当地美国商会组织的会议。当时国会共和党人拒绝提高债务上限，违约的前景日渐逼近。我被来自亚洲各地紧张不安的商人团团围住。他们不停地想问我国内的债务上限争斗，以及这对国际经济意味着什么。美国几十年来保证的地区和全球稳定是他们创建企业和财富的基础。但他们还能信任美国吗？我们真的会引发另一场全球金融危机吗？还有一个没人愿意大声问出来的问题：如果美国摇摇欲坠，中国会不会抓住机会，填补这个真空？ I tried to reassure those businessmen the same way I did when I spoke with anxious foreign diplomats throughout that summer, confidently promising that Congress would eventually reach a deal. I repeated a quip sometimes apocryphally attributed to Winston Churchill: You can always count on Americans to do the right thing, after they’ve tried everything else. Privately, I crossed my fingers and hoped it was true. 我试图安抚那些商人，就像那个夏天我和焦虑的各国外交官交谈时一样，自信地承诺国会最终会达成协议。我重复了一句有时被认为出自温斯顿·丘吉尔之口的俏皮话：对美国人可以放心，他们一定会在尝试了其他所有方法之后，最终去做正确的事。私下里，我在祈愿这件事就会这样收场。 Later that day, I headed to a villa in mainland China for a meeting with my counterpart, State Councilor Dai Bingguo. Over the years, I had heard monologues from Mr. Dai about America’s many supposed misdeeds, his criticisms at times bitingly sardonic but usually delivered with a smile. So I was not surprised when he, too, turned the conversation to the debt ceiling, barely containing his glee at our self-inflicted wound. I was not in the mood for lectures. “We could spend the next six hours talking about China’s domestic challenges,” I told Mr. Dai. 当天晚些时候，我前往中国大陆的一座宅院，与我的对等官员、国务委员戴秉国会晤。多年来，我听戴先生对许多所谓美国的不当行为发表过冗长讲话，他的批评有时尖刻讽刺，但他说这些时通常带着微笑。因此，当他同样把话题转向债务上限时，我并不意外，看到我们搬起石头砸自己的脚，他显得喜形于色。我没有心情听别人说教。“我们可以用接下来的六个小时讨论中国国内的挑战，”我对戴先生说。 Fortunately, Congress and President Barack Obama finally reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling before careening into the fiscal abyss. But the S&P still fell 17 percent, consumer and business confidence nose-dived, and the government’s credit rating was downgraded for the first time ever. After another crisis in 2013, the lesson was clear: Negotiating with hostage-takers will only embolden them to do it again. 幸运的是，国会和奥巴马总统最终在陷入财政深渊之前，就提高债务上限达成了协议。但标准普尔指数仍然下跌了17%，消费者和企业信心暴跌，政府的信用评级有史以来第一次被下调。在2013年的另一场危机之后，教训很明显：与劫持人质者谈判，只会让他们觉得更有底气，下次还会这么干。 Fast-forward a decade, and Republicans are playing the same game. Except now, the risks are even higher. 快进到十年后，共和党人还在玩同样的游戏。但现在，风险更高了。 Today the competition between democracies and autocracies has grown more intense. And by undermining America’s credibility and the pre-eminence of the dollar, the fight over the debt ceiling plays right into the hands of Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia. 如今，民主和专制之间的竞争变得更加激烈。关于债务上限的争斗可能破坏美国的信誉和美元的卓越地位，因而对于中国的习近平和俄罗斯的普京来说，可谓正中下怀。 SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGESAmerica’s leadership around the world depends on our economic strength at home. Defaulting on our debts could cost the United States seven million jobs and throw our economy into a deep recession. Instead of the “arsenal of democracy” capable of outcompeting our rivals, dominating the industries of the future such as microchips and clean energy and modernizing our military, America would be hobbled. 美国在世界上的领导地位取决于我们国内的经济实力。拖欠债务可能会使美国失去700万个工作岗位，并使我们的经济陷入严重衰退。美国将不再是能够超越对手、主导未来产业（如微芯片和清洁能源）和实现军事现代化的“民主武库”，而是变得步履蹒跚。 Even setting aside this economic carnage, brinkmanship over the debt ceiling reinforces autocrats’ narrative that American democracy is in terminal decline and can’t be trusted. 即使抛开这种经济惨败不谈，围绕债务上限的边缘政策也是在证明专制者的说法，即美国民主正处于末路，不可信任。 Trust matters in international affairs. We frequently ask other nations to put their faith in the United States. Our military will be there to protect allies, our financial system is secure, and when we warn about compromised Chinese telecom equipment or an impending Russian invasion, we’re telling the truth. Threatening to break America’s promise to pay our debts calls all that into question. 在国际事务中，信任至关重要。我们经常要求其他国家信任美国。我们的军队将在那里保护盟友，我们的金融体系是安全的，当我们警告中国电信设备有问题或者俄罗斯即将入侵时，我们说的是实话。威胁要打破美国对偿付债务的承诺，就会使所有这些受到质疑。 When I was secretary of state, a big part of my job was rebuilding confidence in the United States after the George W. Bush administration. It wasn’t easy. Senior Chinese officials rarely missed an opportunity to argue that the United States was to blame for the 2008 global financial crisis, and they enjoyed highlighting our troubles in Iraq and Afghanistan. The more dysfunctional or untrustworthy America looked, the easier it was for Chinese propagandists to bad-mouth democracy and brag about their own authoritarian system. 当我担任国务卿时，我工作的很大一部分是在乔治·W·布什政府之后重建对美国的信心。这并不容易。中国高级官员几乎不放过任何机会，声称美国应该为2008年全球金融危机负责，他们喜欢强调我们在伊拉克和阿富汗的麻烦。美国越是看起来功能失调或不值得信任，中国的宣传者就越容易诋毁民主，吹嘘自己的威权制度。 Today America’s credibility will help determine whether nervous Europeans continue to stand with us and support Ukraine or seek an accommodation with an emboldened Russia. It could determine whether more Asian nations welcome American military bases and troops to deter Chinese aggression, as the Philippines recently did, or buckle to Beijing’s bullying. 如今，美国的信誉将有助于决定紧张不安的欧洲人是继续与美国站在一起支持乌克兰，还是寻求与一个愈发胆大妄为的俄罗斯和解。它可以决定，亚洲国家是会更多地欢迎美国的军事基地和军队来遏制中国的进犯（就像最近的菲律宾那样），还是屈服于北京的霸凌。 There’s more. Playing games with the debt ceiling imperils the dollar’s pre-eminent position in the global economy and the power that gives the United States. 此外还有更多。在债务上限问题上耍花招会危及美元在全球经济中的卓越地位和美国的权力。 All over the world, people, companies and governments conduct international transactions in dollars, invest in U.S. Treasury bonds and rely on U.S. banks because they trust that America pays its debts, upholds the rule of law and guarantees stability. The centrality of the dollar gives the United States far-reaching influence. It allows us to impose crippling sanctions, like those I negotiated against Iran during the Obama administration and those the Biden administration has used to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is why Fareed Zakaria recently declared in a Washington Post op-ed that “the dollar is America’s superpower.” 在世界各地，个人、公司和政府用美元进行国际交易，投资美国国债，依赖美国的银行，因为他们相信美国能够偿还债务，维护法治，保证稳定。美元的中心地位赋予了美国深远的影响力。它使我们能够实施严厉的制裁，就像我在奥巴马政府期间对伊朗谈判的制裁，以及拜登政府用来回应俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的制裁。正因如此，法里德·扎卡里亚最近在《华盛顿邮报》的一篇专栏文章中宣称“美元是美国的超能力”。 It’s no surprise that Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin are eager to disrupt the dollar’s dominance and defang American sanctions. At their recent summit in Moscow, Mr. Putin suggested Russia may start selling oil around the world using Chinese yuan rather than dollars, which it is already doing for shipments to China. The two countries are also trying to build cross-border financial systems to allow them to bypass U.S. banks and are holding fewer reserves in dollars. 习近平和普京渴望破坏美元的主导地位，并使美国的制裁失效，这不足为奇。两人最近在莫斯科举行了峰会，普京在会上表示，俄罗斯可能会开始用人民币而不是美元在世界各地销售石油。俄罗斯对中国的石油出口已经在使用人民币结算。两国还在努力建立跨境金融体系，使其能够绕过美国银行，并减持美元储备。 If Congress keeps flirting with default, calls for dethroning the dollar as the world’s reserve currency will grow much louder — and not just in Beijing and Moscow. Countries all over the world will start hedging their bets. 如果美国国会依然不认真对待违约一事，推翻美元作为世界储备货币地位的呼声将会越来越高——而且不仅仅是在北京和莫斯科。世界各国将开始对冲其赌注。 It’s a sad irony that Mr. McCarthy and many of the same congressional Republicans seemingly intent on sabotaging America’s global leadership by refusing to pay our debts are also positioning themselves as tougher-than-thou China hawks. They talk a good game about standing up to Beijing, yet they are handing a major win to the Chinese Communist Party. 讽刺的是，麦卡锡和许多似乎意图通过拒绝偿还我们的债务来破坏美国全球领导地位的共和党人，同时也将自己定位为“比你更强硬”的对华鹰派。他们夸夸其谈地说要对抗北京，却把一场重大胜利拱手交给中国共产党。 Republicans should stop holding America’s credit hostage, shoulder their responsibilities as leaders and raise the debt ceiling. 共和党人应该停止对美国信用的挟持，肩负起他们作为领导人的责任，提高债务上限。 希拉里·克林顿 (Hillary Clinton)曾于2009年至2013年担任美国国务卿。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道更多国家会转向亲中俄吗？2023年4月14日 做开放民主的国家不等于要任人摆弄2023年3月21日 《发生了什么》：希拉里的败选故事2017年9月13日 当希拉里和特朗普还是朋友（一）2016年11月3日 当希拉里和特朗普还是朋友（二）2016年11月4日 当希拉里和特朗普还是朋友（完）2016年11月7日 最受欢迎新加坡式的威权制度比民主制度更好吗 中国如何改写新冠叙事？从控制科学研究开始 镜头里的90年代中国：用身体伤痛表达政治痛苦 《北京快车》：震惊世界的临城火车劫案 习近平如何“双管齐下”应对美国 龙应台：北京未开一枪，已给台湾社会带来裂痕 印度人口即将超过中国，这意味着什么 福克斯新闻是如何帮助瓦解美国右翼的 中国扩张核武库，开启核武超级大国“三足鼎立”时代 中美关系究竟哪里出了问题？ 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2023 The New York Times Company.