新新世界深陷债务泥潭的中国地方政府为何仍大兴基建？China’s Cities Are Buried in Debt, but They Keep Shoveling It On袁莉2023年3月28日 XINMEI LIUIn 2015, when Shangqiu, a municipality in central China about the size of Kentucky, laid out a plan for the next two decades, it positioned itself as a transportation hub with a sprawling network of railways, highways and river shipping routes. 2015年，中国中部城市商丘——一个面积与肯塔基州相当的地级市——在制定未来20年的规划时，将自己定位为拥有庞大的铁路、公路和内河航运网络的交通枢纽。 By the end of 2020, Shangqiu had built 114 miles of high-speed rail, and today several national railways make stops in the city. By 2025, Shangqiu expects the coverage of its highway network to have increased by 87 percent. The city is building its first two airports, three new highways and enough parking space for 20,000 additional slots. 截至2020年底，商丘已建成高铁114公里，多条铁路在商丘交汇。到2025年，商丘预计其高速公路网络覆盖率将增加87%。这座没有机场的城市正在同时建设两座机场、三条新高速公路和足够容纳2万辆汽车的额外停车位。 The infrastructure splurge is far from over. On Feb. 23, the Shangqiu Communist Party secretary reiterated the city’s vision as a logistics power when celebrating a new partnership with a state-owned investment firm, which could help Shangqiu borrow money for even more projects. 挥金如土的基础设施建设远未结束。2月23日，在庆祝与一家国有投资公司建立新的合作伙伴关系时，商丘市委书记重申了该市作为物流重地的愿景，这有助于商丘借钱开展更多项目。 That morning, the city’s bus operator announced that it would have to suspend services because of financial difficulties. The pandemic had hit it hard, the company said, and the Shangqiu government hadn’t provided subsidies that it had promised. As a result, the company had not paid its employees for months — it couldn’t even afford to charge its electric buses. A few hours after posting its announcement, the company deleted it, after it had made national headlines and the Shangqiu government had intervened. 那天早上，该市的公交运营商宣布因财政困难被迫停运。该公司表示，在疫情的沉重打击下，商丘市政府没有提供承诺的补贴。于是公司拖欠了几个月的员工工资，甚至没钱为电动公交车充电。公告在发布几小时后成为全国头条新闻，商丘市政府进行了干预，该公司删除了公告。 China is full of Shangqius these days. As part of the ruling Communist Party’s all-in push for economic growth this year, local governments already in debt from borrowing to pay for massive infrastructure are taking on additional debt. They’re building more roads, railways and industrial parks even though the economic returns on that activity are increasingly meager. In their struggle to find the money to fund their new projects, and the interest payments on their old ones, cities are cutting public services and benefits. 像商丘这样的地方眼下在中国比比皆是。作为执政的共产党今年全力推动经济增长的一部分，本已因大规模基础设施借贷而负债累累的地方政府正在承担更多债务。他们正在建设更多的公路、铁路和工业园区，然而这些经济活动的回报越来越微薄。城市苦于为新项目筹集资金以及为旧项目支付利息，正在削减公共服务和福利。 2014年，中国新疆地区第一条高速铁路试运行。VISUAL CHINA GROUP, VIA GETTY IMAGESShangqiu is one of more than 20 towns and cities in China where bus services were shut down or put in peril because local governments had failed to provide the necessary operating funds. Wuhan and other cities cut health insurance. Still others slashed the pay of government workers. Many local governments in Hebei Province, which borders Beijing, failed to pay heating subsidies for natural gas during the winter, leaving residents to shiver during a record-setting cold wave. 商丘是中国20多个因地方政府未能提供必要的运营资金而导致公交停运或陷入困境的城镇之一。武汉等城市削减了医保。还有一些城市削减了政府工作人员的工资。与北京接壤的河北省许多地方政府未能在冬季支付天然气取暖补贴，导致居民在创纪录的寒潮中受冻。 For nearly three decades, China’s local governments were the envy of the world. They seemed to have unlimited resources to binge-build airports, roads and industrial parks, many of which were funded by selling land. 近三十年来，全世界都羡慕中国的地方政府。它们似乎拥有无限的资源来兴建机场、道路和工业园区，其中许多是通过出售土地筹集资金的。 Now, many of them are in fiscal disarray. In the country’s single-minded pursuit of its “zero Covid” policy, local governments exhausted their coffers to comply with strict testing, quarantine and lockdown rules. Struggling businesses are paying less in taxes. After blow upon blow of government crackdowns, property developers are reluctant to buy land. 现在，许多这样的城市都陷入财政混乱。在该国坚定推行“清零”政策的过程中，地方政府耗尽了金库来遵守严格的检测、隔离和封锁规定。企业在勉强挣扎，缴税下降。在政府一次次的打击下，房地产开发商不愿买地。 “Governments don’t have money to spend on basic services if land sales do not recover dramatically,” said Victor Shih, an associate professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego. “Local government, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities, will still find it difficult to meet many of its budgetary obligations.” “如果土地销售没有大幅恢复，政府就没有钱花在基本服务上，”加州大学圣地亚哥分校政治学副教授史宗瀚(Victor Shih)说。“地方政府——尤其是三四线城市——仍将难以履行其许多预算义务。” According to official data, China’s 31 provincial governments owed around $5.1 trillion at the end of 2022, an increase of 66 percent from three years earlier. An International Monetary Fund report puts the number at $9.5 trillion, equivalent to half the country’s economy. 官方数据显示，截至2022年底，中国31个省级政府负债约35万亿元人民币，比三年前增长66%。国际货币基金组织的一份报告中估算的数字为9.5万亿美元（约合人民币65万亿元），相当于该国经济总量的一半。 But from the enthusiastic way that the cities have embraced investment — China’s old playbook for economic growth — it’s hard to tell that they’re deeply in debt. 投资是中国经济增长的惯用策略，但从这些城市接受投资的热情程度中很难看出它们已经负债累累。 State media is full of breathless reports about new projects. Guangdong, China’s biggest province by economic output, announced that it would invest $1.2 trillion in 1,530 projects in 2023. Henan, the province that includes Shangqiu, said it would spend $261 billion on 2,500 projects. 官方媒体上充满令人目不暇接的新项目报道。中国经济产出最大的省份广东宣布，2023年该省将在1530个项目上投资8.5万亿元。商丘所在的河南省表示，将在2500个项目上投资1.8万亿元。 The problem is that these governments don’t have the money. 问题是，这些政府没有钱。 上海一家生产高铁部件的工厂。 ALY SONG/REUTERSIn China, where the government owns virtually all the land, the main source of income for many localities has for years come from leasing or selling property to developers. But revenue from land sales fell by more than one-fifth last year, according to the finance ministry. All 31 Chinese provincial governments ran deficits because of “zero Covid.” Two-thirds of the local government entities that borrow money exceeded unofficial debt thresholds set by Beijing, with their outstanding debt having surpassed 120 percent of their income by December, according to S&P Global. 在中国，政府几乎拥有所有土地，多年来，许多地方政府的主要收入来源一直是向开发商出租或出售房地产。但根据财政部的数据，去年土地出让收入下降逾五分之一。由于新冠“清零”政策，中国31个省级政府全部出现赤字。根据标普全球的数据，三分之二的地方政府实体借款超过了北京设定的非官方债务门槛，截至12月，其未偿债务已超过其收入的120%。 In Shangqiu, the government didn’t specify how it would fund its 701 projects for 2023. It did say that last year its revenue from land sales was half what the city had targeted, and that it had spent $1 billion on debt service. Put another way: Shangqiu used more than a third of its tax revenue to pay interest on its debt. This year, officials are putting their hope in a big jump in land sales and some growth in tax revenue. 在商丘，政府没有具体说明如何为其2023年的701个项目提供资金。该市确实表示，去年其土地销售收入是该市目标的一半，并已花费75亿用于偿债。换句话说，商丘用超过三分之一的税收收入来支付债务利息。今年，官员们寄希望于土地销售的大幅增长和税收收入的一些增长。 But Shangqiu is not planning to spend the money on public services. On the contrary, the city plans to cut spending on education, health care, employment protection, transportation and many other public services, according to budget documents on its website. 但商丘并不打算把这笔钱用于公共服务。相反，根据该市网站上的预算文件，该市计划削减教育、医疗、就业保护、交通和许多其他公共服务的支出。 “We should protect and improve the public’s livelihood based on our economic growth and financial health,” the documents said. 文件称：“我们要把保障和改善民生建立在经济发展和财力可持续的基础之上。” China is full of wasteful infrastructure that the government likes to brag about but that doesn’t serve the most urgent needs of the public. 中国到处都是花费巨大基础设施，政府喜欢夸耀它们，但它们并不能满足公众最迫切的需求。 The Chinese government likes to say the country has the longest and fastest high-speed railways in the world. But except for a couple of lines that connect the megacities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, most lines operate below capacity and at a great loss. About 80 percent of China’s high-speed railways constructed in the past decade were built in distant and poor regions, China State Railway Group said last year. 中国政府喜欢说中国拥有世界上最长和最快的高铁。但除了连接北京、上海、广州和深圳等特大城市的几条线路外，大多数线路的运营都低于运力，亏损严重。中国国家铁路集团去年表示，在过去十年中建造的中国高速铁路中，约80%建在偏远和贫困地区。 Zhao Jian, a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, warned in an article that high-speed railways could become the “gray rhino” that crushed the Chinese economy because many local governments had taken on a lot of debt to build them. But most of those railways move people, not freight. So they would make sense only in densely populated areas where people were willing to pay more for speed. 北京交通大学教授赵坚在一篇文章中警告说，高铁可能成为压垮中国经济的“灰犀牛”，因为许多地方政府为了建设高铁背负了大量债务。但大多数这样的铁路运送的是人，而不是货物。因此，只有在人口密集、人们愿意为速度花更多钱的地区，它们才有意义。 Local leaders are interested in infrastructure projects because their economic payoff, while minimal, is immediate — people get construction jobs, and companies get building contracts. Such a short-term approach dominates in China’s political system, in which cadres are deployed to run toward the goal set by their leader regardless of the financial or human cost. 地方领导人对基础设施项目感兴趣，因为这些项目的经济回报虽然很少，但却有立竿见影的效果——人们可以得到建筑工作，公司可以得到建筑合同。这种短视做法在中国政治体系中占主导地位，在这种体系中，干部的职责是达成领导人设定的目标，而不考虑经济或人力成本。 去年，列车行驶在张家口和北京之间的一条专为2008年奥运会修建的铁路上。 JAMES HILL FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESThe Shangqiu government brags that there is about 150 square feet of green space for each of the 2.3 million residents in the city’s central municipal area. One of Shangqiu’s biggest infrastructure projects this year is a wetlands park. After building many roads to nowhere, local governments have been spending big on urban beautification projects in recent years. 商丘市政府吹嘘说，在该市中心城区的230万居民中，每人约有14平方米的绿地。商丘今年最大的基础设施项目之一是一座湿地公园。近年来，在修建了许多通往偏僻地方的道路之后，地方政府在城市美化项目上投入了大量资金。 It’s nice to have green space for everyone. But like most inland Chinese cities, Shangqiu isn’t wealthy. Its college graduates are complaining on social media that it’s difficult to find a job that pays more than $300 a month. Its basic pension provides its seniors with $17.80 a month, after a $1.50 raise this year. 每个人都能拥有绿地是好事。但与中国大多数内陆城市一样，商丘并不富裕。该市的大学毕业生在社交媒体上抱怨说，很难找到一份月薪超过两千元的工作。它的基本养老金每月为老年人提供113元，今年增加了10元。 Many Chinese people who are at least 60 years old live on pensions like this. According to official data, in 2021, $54 billion in basic pensions was distributed to more than 162 million people, or about $28 a person each month on average. The residents would probably prefer that the government spent on unemployment protection, bus service and welfare instead of high-speed railways and green space. 很多60岁以上的中国人都靠这样的养老金生活。根据官方数据，2021年，超过1.62亿人获得了3715亿元的基本养老金，平均每人每月约195元。居民们可能更愿意把政府花在失业保护、公共汽车服务和福利上，而不是高铁和绿地。 Shangqiu is far from an exception. 商丘也不例外。 A resident in Pucheng, in the northwestern province of Shaanxi, complained on the local government’s online messaging board in February that there was no bus service between downtown and the railway station. 今年2月，陕西省西北部蒲城的一名居民在当地政府的网上论坛上抱怨说，市中心到火车站之间没有公交服务。 “This is the most basic public service,” the resident, who signed with the name Li Hongbo, wrote. “I felt that people’s livelihood has deteriorated. I hope the leaders can pay some attention to it.” “这可是最基本的民生工程都没有办到，”这位署名李宏博的居民写道。“民生这倒退了。希望相关领导能够重视一下。” 袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。欢迎在Twitter上关注她： @liyuan6。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道袁莉专栏：新新世界 华兴资本包凡失踪打击中国商界信心2023年2月23日 陷入“政治抑郁”的中国商界精英2022年11月8日 债务困境中的“中国曼哈顿”2019年4月11日 中国如何化解经济困局？2018年8月24日 北京信贷紧缩政策冲击中国经济2018年6月15日 最受欢迎台湾前总统马英九历史性访问中国大陆 中国副总理何立峰：主管经济的习近平忠诚追随者 深陷债务泥潭的中国地方政府为何仍大兴基建？ 为什么“中国金融末日”没有成为现实 全球财务困难国家的新任紧急贷款提供者：中国 中国结婚率走低是“天价彩礼”的错吗？ 谎言、争吵和欺诈：乌克兰战争中不光彩的美国志愿者 洪都拉斯与台湾断交，台湾国际地位再受打击 习近平是改革派 与中国的冷战将颠覆一切 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2023 The New York Times Company.