一场以习近平为主角的中国领导人接班大戏A Succession Drama, Chinese Style, Starring Xi Jinping储百亮2022年2月14日 2019年3月，习近平出席全国人大闭幕会。 KEVIN FRAYER/GETTY IMAGESOne rising Chinese provincial leader lauded Xi Jinping as the Communist Party’s “greatest guarantee.” The party chief of a big coastal city urged officials to revere Mr. Xi’s “noble bearing as a leader and personal charisma.” A top general said Mr. Xi had faced down “grave political risks” to achieve the “revolutionary reinvention” of China’s military. 一位步步高升的省级领导人称赞习近平是党的“最大的保障”。一个沿海大城市的市委书记敦促官员们崇敬习近平的“崇高的领袖风范和人格魅力”。一位高级将领说，为了实现中国军队的“革命性重塑”，习近平曾面临“严重政治风险”。 The orchestrated adulation that has carried Mr. Xi into 2022 adds to the growing certainty that he will secure another term in power at a Communist Party congress late in the year. In an era of global upheaval and opportunity, scores of senior officials have said, China needs a resolute, powerful central leader — that is, Mr. Xi — to ensure its ascent as a superpower. 这些精心策划的崇拜伴随着习近平进入2022年，不断增加他在今年底的党代会上获得另一个任期的确定性。数十名高级官员表示，在一个全球动荡和充满机遇的时代，中国需要一个坚定、强大的中央领导人——也就是习近平——来确保它成为超级大国。 But one great uncertainty looms over China, and it is of Mr. Xi’s own design: Nobody, except maybe a tight-lipped circle of senior officials, knows how long he wants to stay in power, or when and how he will appoint a political heir. Mr. Xi seems to like it that way. 但是一个巨大的不确定性笼罩了中国，而且是习近平自己设计的：也许除了一个守口如瓶的高级官员圈子，没有人知道习近平还想继续执政多久，或者何时以及如何任命一个政治继承人。习近平似乎喜欢这种方式。 “Xi’s political genius is the strategic use of uncertainty; he likes to keep everyone off balance,” said Christopher K. Johnson, the president of the China Strategies Group and a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst of Chinese politics. “习近平的政治天才是战略性地使用不确定性；他喜欢让所有人都失去平衡，”中国战略集团首席执行官、前中央情报局中国政治分析师克里斯托弗·K·约翰逊说。 At the congress, Mr. Xi is highly likely to keep his key post as Communist Party general secretary for five more years, bucking the previous assumption that Chinese leaders were settling into a pattern of decade-long reigns. Chinese legislators abolished a term limit on the presidency in 2018, clearing the way for Mr. Xi, 68, to hold onto all his major posts indefinitely: president, party leader and military chairman. 在这次大会上，习近平极有可能将共产党总书记这一关键职位再保留五年，这与之前中国领导人将保持十年任期模式的假设相悖。中国立法者在2018年废除了对国家主席任期的限制，为68岁的习近平无限期地担任所有主要职务——国家主席、党的领导人和军委主席——扫清了道路。 1月，在北京进行的新冠病毒检测。北京不放弃“清零”政策并以此为荣。 KEVIN FRAYER/GETTY IMAGESBut for how many years? And who would take over after him? The dilemmas of when and how to signal a plan to step away from formal office and confirm an heir could test Mr. Xi’s redoubtable political skills. 但这会持续多少年呢？谁来接替他呢？他将何时以及如何发出计划交出正式职位并确认继承人的信号？这个难题可能会考验习近平令人生畏的政治技巧。 Keeping everyone guessing could help reinforce loyalty to him, and give him more time to judge potential successors. Yet holding off from designating one could magnify anxiety, even rifts, in China’s elite. 让所有人都保持猜测有助于增强人们对他的忠诚，并给他更多的时间来判断潜在的继任者。然而，推迟提名可能会加剧中国权贵阶层的焦虑，甚至扩大裂痕。 “To pick an heir would make Xi a lame duck to some extent,” Guoguang Wu, a professor at the University of Victoria in Canada who served as an adviser to Zhao Ziyang, the Chinese leader ousted in 1989, wrote by email. “But it would also reduce the pressure Xi has to confront in seeking his third term.” “挑选继承人在某种程度上会使习近平成为跛脚鸭，”加拿大维多利亚大学教授吴国光在电子邮件中写道，他曾担任在1989年被罢黜的中国领导人赵紫阳的顾问。“但这也会减少习近平在寻求第三任期时必须面对的压力。” Confidence, Mr. Xi has said, is key to protecting party power, and he wants no surprises to upset a triumphant buildup to the congress. 习近平说，信心是保护党的权力的关键，他不希望出现任何意外，破坏党的代表大会欢欣鼓舞的声势。 Setting economic priorities for 2022, China’s leaders repeated “stability” seven times. Beijing is not wavering from its “zero Covid” strategy, while other countries have buckled. This year, too, China’s Winter Olympics, so far untroubled by protest, and planned launch of a space station will bathe Mr. Xi in the aura of a statesman. 在确定2022年的经济重点时，中国领导人七次重申“稳定”。在其他国家已经放弃的情况下，中国没有动摇对新冠的“清零”战略。今年，中国的冬奥会（目前为止没有受到抗议的干扰）和计划中的空间站发射也将为习近平增添政治光环。 2007年10月，在中共十七大后，中国共产党公布了新一届政治局常委。左起：周永康、李克强、李长春、温家宝、胡锦涛、吴邦国、贾庆林、习近平、贺国强。GUANG NIU/GETTY IMAGESBut the blaze of propaganda will shed few clues about internal deliberations building up to the congress. Secrecy around elite politics is ingrained in Communist Party leaders, and it has deepened under Mr. Xi. They see themselves as guarding China’s rise and one-party power in an often hostile world. 但是，宣传热潮几乎无法让人了解大会召开前的内部讨论情况。共产党领导人对高层政治的保密性是根深蒂固的，在习近平的领导下，这种保密性更为深化。他们认为自己是在一个经常充满敌意的世界中守护着中国的崛起和一党权力。 Mr. Xi’s power games may only come into broad focus when a new leadership files out on the red carpet of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing at the end of the congress, which is likely to convene in November. 第一个真正得以一窥习近平权力游戏的机会可能只有在党代会结束、新的领导层在北京人民大会堂的红地毯上亮相时才会出现，该大会可能在11月召开。 Given his desire to keep his options open, Mr. Xi is likely to hold off even then from specifically signaling a successor who would be brought into the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s innermost circle of power, several experts said. 几位专家说，鉴于习近平并不急于做出决定，即使到了那个时候，他也可能暂时不放出继任者将会进入政治局常委会的信号，政治局常委会是党的最核心权力圈。 Mr. Xi and the premier, Li Keqiang, vaulted into the Standing Committee in 2007, confirming them as the two leaders-in-waiting at the time. 习近平和总理李克强于2007年进入政治局常委会，从而确认了他们是当时的两位候补领导人。 Instead of making a similar move, Mr. Xi is more likely to bring a cohort of next-generation officials into the full 25-member Politburo — the tier below the Politburo Standing Committee — creating a reserve bench whose loyalty and mettle would be tested in the years to come. 相比采取类似的行动，习近平更有可能将一批下一代官员带入由25名成员组成的政治局——这是政治局常委以下的层级——形成一个后备队伍，他们的忠诚度和能力将在未来几年内受到考验。 2021年11月，一份中国报纸上刊登习近平在六中全会上的照片。此次会议上，共产党通过了历史性的决议，赞颂习近平在中国崛起成为经济和战略大国的过程中所做出的贡献。 ROMAN PILIPEY/EPA, VIA SHUTTERSTOCK“The action will probably be in the Politburo,” said Mr. Johnson, the former C.I.A. analyst. “Doing anything that would signal a successor now seems unlikely.” “这种动作可能会在政治局内部进行，”曾担任中情局分析师的约翰逊说道。“现在看来，任何对继任者的暗示都不太可能出现。” China’s history of botched succession plans stands as a warning to Mr. Xi. Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping both had an unhappy record of choosing, then turning on, political heirs. 对习近平而言，中国历史上那些出现波折的权力交接就是一种警示。毛泽东和邓小平都曾有在选择政治接班人之后又将矛头对准他们的不愉快记录。 Mr. Xi became top leader in 2012 after a year of lurid strife in ruling circles. He has argued that the fall of the Soviet Union resulted from installing weak, unworthy leaders who betrayed the Communist cause. 在经历了最高统治层长达一年的激烈冲突后，习近平于2012年就任最高领导人。他认为，苏联的解体就是由那些背叛了共产主义事业、软弱无能的领导人造成的。 “Whether a political party and a country can constantly nurture outstanding leadership talent to a great extent determines whether it rises or falls,” Chen Xi, the party’s head of organizational affairs, wrote late last year in People’s Daily, the party’s newspaper. “一个政党、一个国家，能不能不断培养出优秀领导人才，在很大程度上决定着这个政党、这个国家的兴衰存亡，”去年，中共组织部部长陈希在党报《人民日报》上写道。 Mr. Xi has already sought to prevent undercurrents of discontent from converging into opposition before the congress. 在二十大召开前，习近平已经在试图阻止不满的暗流汇聚成反对的力量。 2018年，新当选的副总理在人民大会堂宣誓就职。左起：胡春华、韩正、孙春兰、刘鹤。 WU HONG/EPA, VIA SHUTTERSTOCKIn November, he oversaw a resolution on Communist Party history that gave a glowing affirmation of his years in power. Praise in such a weighty document will help deter pushback, and Mr. Xi has used it to demand “absolute loyalty” to the party from members. A recent video series, parading officials felled for corruption and abuses of power, reinforced the warning. 去年11月，在他的监督下，一项关于中共历史的决议对他的任期给予了高度肯定。在如此重要的一份文件中得到赞美，将有助于他震慑反对派，习近平还利用这份决议要求党员“必须忠诚”。最近的一系列纪录片公开批判了因腐败滥权而获罪的官员，强化了这一警告。 “All the machinery of coercion is in his hands,” Lance Gore, a senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore, said of Mr. Xi. “He’s offended a lot of people, but nobody is in a position to contend with him, openly or even covertly.” “他手中握有全部的胁迫手段，”新加坡国立大学东亚研究所高级研究员兰斯·戈尔这样形容习近平。“他得罪了很多人，但没人有能力公开与他抗衡，甚至暗地里也不行。” Even so, Mr. Xi does not have carte blanche over the next leadership lineup. Other officials could press on his policy missteps to quietly seek more say, Mr. Johnson said. And Mr. Xi’s own interests may also lie in showing some give and take, so different groupings feel they have a seat at the top table. 即便如此，在决定下一届领导层的问题上，习近平并不能真的随心所欲。约翰逊表示，其他官员可能会针对他的政策失误施压，悄悄争取更多话语权。而且，表现出一定的合作与让步也可能符合习近平的自身利益，这样各派都以为自己能在最高层占据一席之地。 “It’s not necessarily winner-takes-all,” said Timothy Cheek, a historian of the Chinese Communist Party at the University of British Columbia. “He’s leaving room so that other people are somewhat accommodated.” “不一定非要赢家通吃，”不列颠哥伦比亚大学研究中共党史的历史学家齐慕实(Timothy Cheek)表示。“他留有余地，让其他人在一定程度上也能被顾及到。” Even if politics goes smoothly, who retires and who rises presents Mr. Xi with tricky trade-offs. 即便政治上进展顺利，对习近平而言，让谁退休、让谁升迁都是相当棘手的取舍。 2018年，两位政治局委员，陈敏尔（左）和胡春华。内部人士曾认为陈敏尔有可能接替习近平，但现在看来这不太可能。 WU HONG/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCYAt the last party congress in 2017, leaders did not pick a successor to Mr. Xi, upending the ladder-like handover of power that had been taking shape in previous decades. Some of Mr. Xi’s protégés may now be too old to stay in the race, while promising younger officials remain untested, and generally unknown. 在2017年举行的上一届党代会十九大上，领导层并未选出习近平的继任者，颠覆了过去几十年形成的阶梯式权力交接定式。习近平的一些栽培对象如今可能年纪太大，不再适合参与竞逐，而有前途的年轻官员尚未经受考验，而且通常不为人知。 Under an informal age ceiling for senior party posts, two of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee — the top tier of power — are likely to retire: Vice Premier Han Zheng and the head of the Chinese legislature, Li Zhanshu. That unspoken rule says that members who are 68 or older should step down when a congress comes around. Mr. Xi could also engineer more retirements, including of the premier, Li Keqiang, or expand the size of the Standing Committee, which is not fixed by rule. 按照对党内高层的不成文年龄限制，在政治局常委会的七名成员——即权力最高层——中，有两人可能退休：副总理韩正和全国人大常委会委员长栗战书。这一不成文规定要求68岁或以上的委员应在人大召开时卸任。习近平也可能安排更多委员退休——包括总理李克强，或是扩大政治局常委会的规模，按规定这并不是固定不变的。 Possible recruits into the top body include Chen Min’er, Hu Chunhua, and Ding Xuexiang. All are Politburo members young enough to serve 10 years in the Standing Committee under the age rules. So far, though, none has received a telltale pre-congress move that suggests Mr. Xi has special plans for him, such as a high-profile transfer or a propaganda push. 可能进入这一最高权力机关的候选人包括陈敏尔、胡春华和丁薛祥。这三人都是政治局委员，按照年龄规定还可在常委会任职十年。不过，到目前为止，还没有人收到暗示习近平可能在二十大召开前有特别计划的消息，比如一次大动静的调动，或是一波宣传攻势。 Party insiders once described Mr. Chen as a favorite and possible heir of Mr. Xi. But Mr. Chen already seems too old to win elite approval, said Bo Zhiyue, a consultant in New Zealand who studies Chinese elite politics. Mr. Chen will be 67 in 2027, a year when Mr. Xi could step down at a party congress. Mr. Xi was 59 when he became leader at a congress in 2012. 党内人士曾将陈敏尔描述为习近平最钟意的潜在接班人。但在新西兰研究中国精英政治的顾问薄智跃认为，陈敏尔年纪太大，可能难以获得党内精英阶层的认可。陈敏尔到2027年就将年满67岁，届时习近平可能将在党代会上卸任。习近平在2012年的十八大成为最高领导人时59岁。 2018年，习近平在人民大会堂举行的全国人大全体会议上。这一年中国立法者废除了国家主席任期限制。ANDY WONG/ASSOCIATED PRESSMr. Xi “has to bring in new people, but he doesn’t want any of them labeled as his successor,” Mr. Bo said. “There’s the big dilemma for Xi Jinping — how to promote them but not too far and limit his options.” 习近平“不得不引入新鲜血液，但他又不希望有谁被贴上他的继任者的标签”，薄智跃说，“习近平面临一个大难题——如何提拔这些人，但又不能提拔过头，从而限制了他的选择。” There is likely to be much more turnover in the full Politburo, the second-highest rung of power. Retirements there could create 11 vacancies, which Mr. Xi could use to promote a cohort of loyal officials in their 50s or early 60s, many now provincial leaders. 政治局的整体人员变动可能会更大，这是党内权力第二层级。政治局的退休委员可能创造出11个职位空缺，习近平可以利用这些空缺提拔一批50多岁或60岁出头的如今正在做省级领导的忠诚官员。 But if Mr. Xi stays at the top for another decade or longer, they may also be passed over for even younger potential successors now working in obscurity in ministries and local administrations. 但如果习近平在最高位置上继续掌权十年或者更久，这些官员也可能被正在中央部委或地方政府中默默无闻的更年轻的潜在继任者所取代。 “If Xi stays healthy and avoids policy disasters, he could remain a capable national leader and a formidable political operator for another couple of decades,” said Neil Thomas, who analyses Chinese politics for the Eurasia Group. 欧亚集团研究中国政治的分析师牛犇(Neil Thomas)表示，“如果习近平保持健康并避免了决策灾难，可能在未来几十年里，他都仍会是一个有能力的国家领导人，也会是一个令人生畏的政治纵横家。” 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@ChuBailiang。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道详解中共第三份历史决议2021年11月17日 习近平21个月未出访说明了什么2021年11月1日 习近平的后疫情时代中国崛起蓝图2021年3月4日 从毛泽东到习近平2021年4月26日 最受欢迎严歌苓指控张艺谋《一秒钟》未为其署名，电影界沉默以对 面对中俄威胁，拜登选择延续特朗普关键外交政策 中国问天实验舱升空，运载火箭残骸问题受关注 恒大134亿存款质押调查：CEO等多名高管被要求辞职 安倍遇刺案与统一教会：巨额捐款和长期争议 我曾经乐观看待中国的审查制度，我错了 滴滴超80亿元罚单背后，中国政府释放何种信号 一场以习近平为主角的中国领导人接班大戏 拜登新冠阳性，然后呢？ 俄罗斯寻求建立“正直轴心”对抗美国 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.