内忧外患之际，习近平将和拜登谈些什么？China’s Domestic Troubles Will Hang Over Biden-Xi CallPETER BAKER2022年7月28日 拜登总统去年与中国国家主席习近平进行了虚拟会晤。 DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMESWASHINGTON — When President Biden gets on a call with President Xi Jinping of China on Thursday to try to tamp down tension over Taiwan, the two will have a laundry list of mutual grievances to address. But one source of recent friction may be something not on the list: China’s domestic troubles. 华盛顿——当拜登总统周四与中国国家主席习近平通电话，试图缓和台湾问题上的紧张局势时，两人将有一长串相互不满的问题需要解决。但是，最近摩擦的一个根源可能是清单上没有的东西：中国的国内问题。 The United States and China have been at odds lately over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, aggressive Chinese action in the Pacific, continuing American tariffs and a possible trip to Taiwan by Speaker Nancy Pelosi over Beijing’s strenuous objections. Any of those could provide the spark for a more dangerous confrontation. 近期在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、中国在太平洋的侵犯行动、美国继续征收关税以及众议院议长佩洛西可能不顾北京的强烈反对访问台湾等问题上，美中两国都存在分歧。其中任何一个问题都可能引发更危险的对抗。 But some American officials suspect that what is really driving Mr. Xi to lash out recently is a desire to divert attention from his own economic and pandemic problems at home or at least a need to demonstrate strength internationally. His “zero Covid” policy has resulted in drastic lockdowns, but cases are rising again and China still has no mRNA vaccine. His economy has slowed almost to a halt even as unemployment among young people soars and many parts of China are experiencing mortgage and debt crises. 但一些美国官员怀疑，习近平最近发难的真正原因是希望转移对其国内经济和疫情问题的注意力，或者至少是需要在国际上展示实力。他的“清零”政策导致严厉的封锁，但病例数再次上升，而中国仍然没有mRNA疫苗。中国的经济发展速度几乎停滞不前，年轻人的失业率在飙升，中国的许多地方在面临抵押贷款和债务危机。 Provoking a foreign crisis to take attention away from such issues is a tried-and-true technique of leaders everywhere, but it will make it harder for Mr. Biden to lower the temperature on Thursday. White House officials played down the likelihood of any breakthroughs, saying the purpose of the call, the leaders’ fifth since Mr. Biden took office, was simply to keep talking. 通过挑起一场外国危机来转移人们对此类问题的注意力，这是各国领导人屡试不爽的手法，但这会让拜登更难在周四为事态降温。白宫官员表示不要过多期待此次能取得任何突破，称通话的目的只是继续交谈。这是拜登上任以来两国领导人的第五次通话。 “This is the kind of relationship-tending that President Biden believes strongly in doing even with nations with which you might have significant differences,” John F. Kirby, a National Security Council spokesman, told reporters on Wednesday. “There’s importance and value in keeping the lines of communication open.” “拜登总统坚信，即使与那些可能存在重大分歧的国家，也应该保持这种关系维护，”国家安全委员会发言人约翰·柯比周三对记者说。“保持沟通渠道的畅通很重要，也很有价值。” Mr. Kirby would not disclose the timing of the call, but another American official confirmed that it was scheduled for Thursday. It will be the first time Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi have spoken since March, shortly after Russia attacked Ukraine and Beijing rebuffed American efforts to isolate Moscow politically and economically. 柯比不愿透露通话的时间，但另一名美国官员证实，通话定在周四进行。拜登和习近平上一次通话是在3月，当时俄罗斯对乌克兰发动了进攻，而北京拒绝了美国在政治和经济上孤立莫斯科的努力。 Ms. Pelosi’s reported plans to visit have provided the flash point in recent days, with China loudly calling any trip a provocation and hinting darkly at some form of retaliation. In recent months, Chinese aircraft have engaged in close encounters with American, Canadian and Australian planes in the region, and Beijing has made expansive claims about its control over the Taiwan Strait. 佩洛西访台计划见诸报端后成为近几天的爆发点，中国厉声宣称任何访问都是挑衅行为，并暗示将会进行某种形式的报复。最近几个月，中国飞机在该地区与美国、加拿大和澳大利亚的飞机发生了近距离接触，北京方面还对台湾海峡的控制权提出了广泛的主张。 The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Wednesday repeated its warnings against the speaker’s visit. “If the U.S. insists on going its own way and challenging China’s bottom line, it will surely be met with forceful responses,” Zhao Lijian, the ministry’s spokesman, told reporters at a briefing. “All ensuing consequences shall be borne by the U.S.” 中国外交部周三重申了对佩洛西此行的警告。“如果美方一意孤行，挑战中方底线，必将遭到坚决反制，由此引起的一切后果完全由美方承担，”外交部发言人赵立坚在新闻发布会上对记者说。 Ms. Pelosi’s office has declined to confirm plans to stop in Taiwan as part of an official trip to Asia during the upcoming congressional recess, but a Republican congressman told NBC News that she had invited him and others to join her. 佩洛西的办公室拒绝证实她在即将到来的国会休会期间是否将在台湾停留，作为她的亚洲正式访问的一部分，但一名国会共和党议员告诉NBC新闻，佩洛西已经邀请他和其他人一起前往台湾。 “Any member that wants to go should. It shows political deterrence to President Xi,” said Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who had to decline because of a scheduling conflict. “But she should also pay attention to the military if it’s going to cause a blowback and escalate things.” “任何想去的议员都应该去。这是对习主席的政治威慑，”得克萨斯州众议员迈克尔·麦考尔说，这位众议院外交委员会的共和党领袖因为日程安排冲突而不得不拒绝邀请。“但她也应该注意军方的情况，注意这是否会造成反弹，使事态升级。” Mr. Biden, who has riled China multiple times since taking office by saying he would use force to defend Taiwan, said last week that the military thought it was the wrong time for Ms. Pelosi to go. There has been talk of possible danger, even speculation that China would send warplanes to shadow her plane. Some on Capitol Hill see this as a ham-handed effort by the White House to pressure Ms. Pelosi to cancel any such trip, the first by a speaker in 25 years, but Republicans and some Democrats have urged her to follow through rather than let Beijing dictate American actions. 拜登自上任以来曾多次表示将使用武力保卫台湾，这激怒了中国。他上周说，军方认为佩洛西此刻访问台湾的时机不合适。人们一直在谈论可能的危险，甚至有人猜测中国会派战机伴随其飞机飞行。国会山的一些人认为，这是白宫向佩洛西施压的笨拙努力，要求她取消25年来众议院议长的首次访台，但共和党人和一些民主党人敦促她坚持下去，不能让北京左右美国的行动。 Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters traveling with him in Australia on Wednesday that he would provide security for any trip the speaker makes, as the armed forces traditionally do. “If there’s a decision made that Speaker Pelosi or anyone else is going to travel and they asked for military support, we will do what is necessary to ensure a safe conduct of their visit,” he said. 周三，参谋长联席会议主席马克·米莱上将告诉随行记者，他会按照军队的传统做法，为佩洛西的行程提供安全保障。他说：“如果佩洛西议长或其他人决定出访，并且要求军事支持，我们将采取必要措施，确保访问安全进行。” The conflict comes as the United States is seeking to compete more vigorously with China economically and politically. The Senate on Wednesday passed a measure investing in semiconductor production to revive American industry and reduce reliance on Chinese products. Representative Adam B. Schiff, a senior Democrat from California, introduced separate legislation on Wednesday authorizing the Biden administration to impose sanctions on Chinese officials or entities aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine. 这场冲突发生之际，美国正寻求在经济和政治上与中国展开更激烈的竞争。周三，参议院通过了一项投资半导体生产的措施，以重振美国工业，减少对中国产品的依赖。周三，加利福尼亚州资深民主党众议员亚当·希夫提出了另一项立法，授权拜登政府对协助俄罗斯在乌克兰发动战争的中国官员或实体实施制裁。 These actions have fueled resentment in Beijing, analysts said. “The Chinese see Washington as intentionally provoking a crisis,” said Susan A. Thornton, a senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School and a longtime career diplomat who worked on Asia policy. “I’m not sure what Biden could say that would convince them otherwise.” 分析人士说，这些行动激起了北京方面的不满。“中国认为华盛顿有意挑起危机，”耶鲁大学法学院蔡中曾中国中心高级研究员、长期从事亚洲政策工作的职业外交官董云裳(Susan A. Thornton)说。“我不确定拜登能说什么来让他们不这么想。” But China has responded more aggressively than in the past. Ms. Pelosi first announced a plan to go to Taiwan in April only to postpone after testing positive for the coronavirus, and Beijing took little notice at the time. Moreover, a succession of other high-level Americans have visited lately, including senior members of Congress and two former defense secretaries, Jim Mattis and Mark T. Esper, without provoking a crisis. 但中国的回应比过去更加强硬。佩洛西最早在4月宣布了前往台湾的计划，但在新冠病毒检测呈阳性后将行程推迟，当时北京几乎没有理会。此外，包括资深国会议员和两名前国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯及马克·埃斯珀在内的一系列美国高层近年访问台湾，都不曾引发危机。 One difference now is the economic slowdown that threatens Mr. Xi’s standing at home just as he heads to the all-important party congress in November where he will seek a third term. China reported just 0.4 percent economic growth in the second quarter, a far cry from its 5.5 percent annual target, and some experts skeptical of the official numbers believe the economy may have even shrunk, a crisis in a country that needs robust growth just to keep up with its population. 和当时相比，现在的区别是中国经济出现了放缓，这威胁着习近平在国内的地位，因为他正在为11月至关重要的党代会做准备，届时他将寻求取得第三个任期。中国第二季度报告经济增长率仅为0.4%，与5.5%的年度目标相去甚远，一些对官方数字持怀疑态度的专家认为经济甚至可能已经萎缩，这对于一个需要强劲增长才能跟上人口需求的国家来说是一种危机。 Michael J. Green, an Asia expert at Georgetown University and a former adviser to President George W. Bush, said he did not think Mr. Xi was looking to cause trouble but needed to demonstrate that he could force the United States to back down before the November party congress. 乔治敦大学的亚洲专家、乔治·W·布什总统的前顾问迈克尔·格林说，他不认为习近平想制造麻烦，但他需要证明自己能在11月的党代会之前迫使美国退让。 “He’s being tough going into the party congress, and he does have domestic problems, big ones,” Mr. Green said. “Zero Covid is unpopular and hurting the economy, and the real estate debt is mounting. There are signs of quiet dissent in China. Xi is going to get his third term, but he’s not in the strongest domestic position, that’s true. It doesn’t mean he’s trying to wag the dog and create a crisis, but it means he has no flexibility.” “他在党代会即将召开时做出强硬姿态，而且他确实有国内问题，很大的问题，”格林说。“清零政策不受欢迎，损害了经济，房地产债务正在增加。有迹象表明，中国国内出现了悄声异议。习近平将获得他的第三个任期，但他在国内的地位有所动摇，这是事实。这不等于他想转移视线，制造危机，却意味着他没有灵活变通的余地。” Peter Baker是时报首席白宫记者，为时报和《华盛顿邮报》报道了五位美国总统的新闻。他还著有六本书，最新的一本是《管理华盛顿的人：詹姆斯·A·贝克三世的生活和时代》(The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III.)。欢迎在Twitter和Faceboook上关注他。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道中国经济在“清零”中举步维艰2022年7月12日 佩洛西访台计划加剧美国对台海担忧2022年7月26日 为何拜登选择延续特朗普的外交政策2022年7月25日 中国以强硬立场回应北约宣言2022年7月4日 最受欢迎王小波与《黄金时代》：极权下的欲望、伤逝和反抗 赞扬讲话、表达忠诚，香港官场掀起“学习习近平”热 中国如何处理外债问题影响深远 高温热浪席卷中国，逾9亿人受影响 佩洛西访台计划加剧拜登政府对台海问题担忧 从空姐到葬礼策划师：新冠时代的失业与新开始 IMF：全球经济或面临50年来最疲弱一年 美国参议院推进产业政策法案以抗衡中国 我曾经乐观看待中国的审查制度，我错了 严歌苓指控张艺谋《一秒钟》未为其署名，电影界沉默以对 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.