新闻分析面对中俄威胁，拜登选择延续特朗普关键外交政策On U.S. Foreign Policy, the New Boss Acts a Lot Like the Old One黄安伟2022年7月25日 拜登总统在竞选过程中誓言要一改前一届政府的路线。 KENNY HOLSTON FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESWASHINGTON — A fist bump and meeting with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. Tariffs and export controls on China. Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. American troops out of Afghanistan. 华盛顿——与沙特阿拉伯王储碰拳和会面。对中国的关税和出口管制。耶路撒冷是以色列的首都。美军撤出阿富汗。 More than a year and a half into the tenure of President Biden, his administration’s approach to strategic priorities is surprisingly consistent with the policies of the Trump administration, former officials and analysts say. 前官员和分析人士表示，拜登总统上任一年半有余，其政府处理战略重点的方式与特朗普政府的政策惊人地一致。 Mr. Biden vowed on the campaign trail to break from the paths taken by the previous administration, and in some ways on foreign policy he has done that. He has repaired alliances, particularly in Western Europe, that Donald J. Trump had weakened with his “America First” proclamations and criticisms of other nations. In recent months, Mr. Biden’s efforts positioned Washington to lead a coalition imposing sanctions against Russia during the war in Ukraine. 在竞选期间，拜登曾誓言要一改前一届政府的路线，在外交政策的某些方面，他也做到了这一点。他修复了特朗普因“美国优先”宣言和对其他国家的批评而削弱的联盟，尤其是在西欧。近几个月来，拜登的努力让华盛顿有能力领导了一个在乌克兰战争期间对俄罗斯实施制裁的联盟。 And Mr. Biden has denounced autocracies, promoted the importance of democracy and called for global cooperation on issues that include climate change and the coronavirus pandemic. 拜登还对专制统治进行了谴责，宣扬民主的重要性，并呼吁在气候变化和新冠病毒大流行等问题上进行全球合作。 But in critical areas, the Biden administration has not made substantial breaks, showing how difficult it is in Washington to chart new courses on foreign policy. 但在一些关键领域，拜登政府并没有取得实质性的突破，这表明华盛顿在外交政策方面制定新路线的困难程度。 That was underscored this month when Mr. Biden traveled to Israel and Saudi Arabia, a trip partly aimed at strengthening the closer ties among those states that Trump officials had promoted under the so-called Abraham Accords. 本月拜登对以色列和沙特阿拉伯的访问更加凸显了这一点，此行的部分目的是加强特朗普官员在所谓《亚伯拉罕协定》下推动的两国之间更紧密的联系。 In Saudi Arabia, Mr. Biden met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman despite his earlier vow to make the nation a “pariah” for human rights violations, notably the murder of a Washington Post writer in 2018. U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that the prince ordered the brutal killing. Behind the scenes, the United States still provides important support for the Saudi military in the Yemen war despite Mr. Biden’s earlier pledge to end that aid because of Saudi airstrikes that killed civilians. 在沙特阿拉伯，拜登会见了王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼，尽管他早些时候曾誓言要让沙特因侵犯人权而成为“被唾弃的国家”，尤其是因为2018年一名《华盛顿邮报》撰稿人被谋杀的事件。美国情报机构的结论是王储下令残忍将其杀害。在幕后，尽管拜登早些时候承诺因沙特空袭杀害平民而终止援助，但美国仍然在也门战争中为沙特军队提供重要支持。 “The policies are converging,” said Stephen E. Biegun, deputy secretary of state in the Trump administration and a National Security Council official under President George W. Bush. “Continuity is the norm, even between presidents as different as Trump and Biden.” “政策正在趋同，”特朗普政府的副国务卿、小布什总统时期的国家安全委员会官员史蒂芬·比根说。“连续性是常态，即使是对于特朗普和拜登这样截然不同的总统。” Some former officials and analysts praised the consistency, arguing that the Trump administration, despite the deep flaws of the commander in chief, properly diagnosed important challenges to American interests and sought to deal with them. 一些前官员和分析人士对这种一致性表示赞扬，认为尽管其统帅有着严重的缺陷，但特朗普政府对美国利益面临的重大挑战做出了恰当的判断，并设法应对这些挑战。 Others are less sanguine. They say Mr. Biden’s choices have compounded problems with American foreign policy and sometimes deviated from the president’s stated principles. Senior Democratic lawmakers have criticized his meeting with Prince Mohammed and aid to the Saudi military, for instance, even though administration officials have promoted a United Nations-brokered cease-fire in Yemen. 也有人不那么乐观。他们说，拜登的选择加剧了美国外交政策的问题，有时还偏离了总统所声明的原则。例如，一些民主党资深议员批评了他与穆罕默德王储的会面以及对沙特军方的援助，尽管政府官员一直在推动由联合国斡旋的也门停火协议。 “As time has gone on, Biden has not lived up to a lot of his campaign promises, and he has stuck with the status quo on the Middle East and on Asia,” said Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “随着时间推移，拜登没有兑现他的很多竞选承诺，他在中东和亚洲问题上保持现状，”大西洋理事会高级研究员艾玛·阿什福德说。 Both the Trump and Biden administrations have had to grapple with the question of how to maintain America’s global dominance at a time when it appears in decline. China has ascended as a counterweight, and Russia has become bolder. 特朗普政府和拜登政府都不得不面对一个问题：在美国的全球主导地位似乎正在下降之际，该如何保持这样的地位。目前中国已经崛起为势均力敌的力量，俄罗斯则变得更加大胆。 The Trump administration’s national security strategy formally reoriented foreign policy toward “great power competition” with China and Russia and away from prioritizing terrorist groups and other nonstate actors. The Biden administration has continued that drive, in part because of events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 特朗普政府的国家安全战略正式将外交政策转向与中国和俄罗斯的“大国竞争”，不再将恐怖组织和其他非国家行为体列为优先事项。拜登政府继续推动这一进程，部分原因是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰等事件。 The Biden White House has delayed the release of its own national security strategy, which had been expected early this year. Officials are rewriting it because of the Ukraine war. The final document is still expected to emphasize competition among powerful nations. 拜登领导的白宫推迟了原定于今年年初公布的国家安全战略的发布。由于乌克兰战争，官员们正在对其进行改写。预计最终文件仍将强调大国之间的竞争。 Mr. Biden has said that China is the greatest competitor of the United States — an assertion that Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken reiterated in a recent speech — while Russia is the biggest threat to American security and alliances. 拜登曾表示，中国是美国最大的竞争对手——美国国务卿布林肯在最近的一次演讲中重申了这一主张——而俄罗斯是对美国安全和盟友的最大威胁。 对华政策最充分地说明了两届政府的连续性。 ALEX PLAVEVSKI/EPA, VIA SHUTTERSTOCKSome scholars say the tradition of continuity between administrations is a product of the conventional ideas and groupthink arising from the bipartisan foreign policy establishment in Washington, which Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser to President Barack Obama, derisively called “the Blob.” 一些学者说，两届政府之间的连续性传统，是华盛顿跨党派外交政策建制派的传统观念和群体思维的产物。奥巴马总统的副国家安全顾问本·罗兹曾戏称他们为“小集团”。 But others argue that outside circumstances — including the behavior of foreign governments, the sentiments of American voters and the influence of corporations — leave U.S. leaders with a narrow band of choices. 但也有人认为，外部环境——包括外国政府的行为、美国选民的看法和公司的影响——让美国领导人没有多少选择的余地。 “There’s a lot of gravitational pull that brings the polices to the same place,” Mr. Biegun said. “It’s still the same issues. It’s still the same world. We still have largely the same tools with which to influence others to get to the same outcomes, and it’s still the same America.” “有很多力量会把政策引到同一个方向，”比根说。“仍然要面对同样的问题。仍然是在同一个世界。我们在很大程度上仍然用同样的工具来影响其他国家，以达到同样的结果，仍然是同一个美国。” In committing to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were responding to the will of most Americans, who had grown weary of two decades of war. For Mr. Biden, the move was also a chance to address unfinished business. As vice president, he had advocated bringing troops home, in line with Mr. Obama’s desire to wind down the “forever wars,” but he was opposed by U.S. generals insisting on a presence in Afghanistan. 拜登和特朗普都承诺从阿富汗撤军，这是对大多数美国人意愿的回应，他们已经厌倦了20年的战争。对拜登来说，此举也是解决未尽事宜的机会。在担任副总统期间，他曾主张撤军回国，这与奥巴马希望结束“永久战争”的愿望一致，但他遭到了坚持在阿富汗驻军的美军将领的反对。 Despite the chaotic withdrawal last August as the Taliban took over the country, polls have shown most Americans supported ending U.S. military involvement there. 尽管塔利班去年8月接管阿富汗后，美军在混乱中撤出该国，但民意调查显示，大多数美国人支持结束美军在阿富汗的军事行动。 Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have advocated a smaller U.S. military presence in conflict regions. But both hit limits to that thinking. Mr. Biden has sent more American troops to Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to Somalia, reversing a Trump-era withdrawal. U.S. troops remain in Iraq and Syria. 特朗普和拜登都主张减少美国在冲突地区的军事存在。但两者都触及了这种想法的极限。拜登向索马里以及——自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来——欧洲派遣了更多的美国军队，推翻了特朗普时代的撤军计划。美国军队仍然留在伊拉克和叙利亚。 “There’s deep skepticism of the war on terror by senior members of the Biden administration,” said Brian Finucane, a senior adviser at International Crisis Group who worked on military issues as a lawyer at the State Department. “Nevertheless they’re not willing yet to undertake broad structural reform to dial back the war.” “拜登政府的高级官员对反恐战争深表怀疑，”曾在国务院从事军事相关法务工作的国际危机组织高级顾问布莱恩·菲努凯恩说。“然而，他们还不愿意进行广泛的结构性改革，以减少战争。” Mr. Finucane said reform would include repealing the 2001 war authorization that Congress gave the executive branch after the attacks of Sept. 11. 菲努凯恩说，改革将包括废除9·11袭击后国会授予行政部门的2001年战争授权。 “Even if the Biden administration doesn’t take affirmative steps to further stretch the scope of the 2001 A.U.M.F., as long as it remains on the books, it can be used by future administrations,” he said, referring to the authorization. “And other officials can extend the war on terror.” “即使拜登政府不采取积极措施，进一步扩大2001年的AUMF的范围，只要它仍然存在，未来的政府就可以使用它，”他所说的AUMF就是指该战争授权。“而其他官员可以扩大反恐战争的范围。” On the most pressing Middle East issue — Iran and its nuclear program — Mr. Biden has taken a different tack than Mr. Trump. The administration has been negotiating with Tehran a return to an Obama-era nuclear agreement that Mr. Trump dismantled, which led to Iran’s accelerating its uranium enrichment. But the talks have hit an impasse. And Mr. Biden has said he would stick with one of Mr. Trump’s major actions against the Iranian military, the designation of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, despite that being an obstacle to a new agreement. 在伊朗及其核计划这个最紧迫的中东问题上，拜登采取了与特朗普不同的策略。现政府一直在与德黑兰谈判，以恢复被特朗普废除的奥巴马时代核协议。特朗普废除该协议导致伊朗加快了铀浓缩进程。但目前政府与伊朗的谈判陷入僵局。拜登表示，他将坚持特朗普针对伊朗军方的一项重大行动，即将伊朗的伊斯兰革命卫队列为恐怖组织，尽管这对达成新协议来说是一个障碍。 拜登在中东之行期间会见了伊拉克总理卡迪米。政府还一直试图与伊朗谈判，以恢复奥巴马时代的核协议。DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMESChina policy stands out as the most vivid example of continuity between the two administrations. The State Department has kept a Trump-era genocide designation on China for its repression of Uyghur Muslims. Biden officials have continued to send U.S. naval ships through the Taiwan Strait and shape weapons sales to Taiwan to try to deter a potential invasion by China. 对华政策最充分地说明了两届政府的连续性。对于中国镇压维吾尔族穆斯林的行为，国务院保留了特朗普时代的种族灭绝定性。拜登政府官员继续派遣美国海军舰艇通过台湾海峡，并策划对台军售，试图阻止中国大陆可能的入侵。 Most controversially, Mr. Biden has kept Trump-era tariffs on China, despite the fact that some economists and several top U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, question their purpose and impact. 争议最大的要属拜登保留了特朗普时代对中国施加的关税，尽管一些经济学家和包括财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦在内的多位美国高官都对这些关税的意义和影响提出了质疑。 Mr. Biden and his political aides are keenly aware of the rising anti-free-trade sentiment in the United States that Mr. Trump capitalized on to marshal votes. That awareness has led Mr. Biden to shy away from trying to re-enter the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim nations that Mr. Obama helped organize to strengthen economic competition against China but that Mr. Trump and progressive Democrats rejected. 拜登及其政治助手完全明白特朗普在利用美国国内日益高涨的反自由贸易情绪拉票。这一认知让拜登不愿尝试重新加入《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》，这是奥巴马参与制定的12个环太平洋国家之间的贸易协定，目的是加强对中国的经济竞争，但遭到了特朗普和进步派民主党人的反对。 Analysts say Washington needs to offer Asian nations better trade agreements and market access with the United States if it wants to counter China’s economic influence. 有分析认为，若想对抗中国的经济影响力，美国有必要向亚洲国家提供更完善的贸易协定和更多美国市场的准入机会。 “Neither the Trump nor Biden administrations have had a trade and economic policy that the Asian friends of the U.S. have been pleading for to help reduce their reliance on China,” said Kori Schake, the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “Both Biden and Trump administrations are to some extent over-militarizing the China problem because they can’t figure out the economic piece.” “特朗普和拜登这两届政府都没有拿出美国亚洲盟友一直渴望的贸易和经济政策，以减少他们对中国的依赖，”美国企业研究所外交与国防政策研究主任科丽·舍克表示。“两届政府都在某种程度上将中国问题过度军事化，因为他们都解决不了经济层面的问题。” It is in Europe that Mr. Biden has set himself apart from Mr. Trump. The Trump administration was at times contradictory on Europe and Russia: While Mr. Trump praised President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, criticized the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and withheld military aid to Ukraine for domestic political gain, some officials under him worked in the opposite direction. By contrast, Mr. Biden and his aides have uniformly reaffirmed the importance of trans-Atlantic alliances, which has helped them coordinate sanctions and weapons shipments to oppose Russia in Ukraine. 欧洲问题是拜登与特朗普执政方针的区别所在。特朗普政府在欧洲与俄罗斯的问题上有时是矛盾的：虽然赞美了俄罗斯总统普京，批评北大西洋公约组织，并为了国内政治利益拒绝向乌克兰提供援助，但特朗普手下一些官员的行动却与他背道而驰。相较之下，拜登及其助手一致重申了跨大西洋联盟的重要性，帮助盟友协调制裁和武器运输，以对抗俄罗斯在乌克兰的力量。 7月初，乌克兰东部巴赫穆特附近一个村庄的两栋建筑被火箭弹击中，急救人员正在事发地点抢救伤者。MAURICIO LIMA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES“There’s no question in my mind that words and politics matter,” said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis. “If allies don’t trust the U.S. will uphold Article 5 of NATO and come to an ally’s defense, it doesn’t matter how much you invest.” “在我看来，措辞和政治当然很重要，”欧洲政策分析中心主席阿丽娜·波利亚科娃表示。“如果盟国不相信美国会履行北约第五条，不相信美国会支持盟国的防御，那不管做出多少投入都无济于事。” Ultimately the biggest contrast between the presidents, and perhaps the aspect most closely watched by America’s allies and adversaries, lies in their views on democracy. Mr. Trump complimented autocrats and broke with democratic traditions well before the insurrection in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, that congressional investigators argue he organized. Mr. Biden has placed promotion of democracy at the ideological center of his foreign policy, and in December he welcomed officials from more than 100 countries to a “summit for democracy.” 归根结底，这两位总统之间最大的区别——可能也是美国盟友与对手最关注的方面——还是在于他们对民主制度的看法。早在2021年1月6日那场国会调查人员声称是他本人组织的华盛顿暴动之前，特朗普就称赞过独裁者，打破过民主传统。拜登则将促进民主当作外交政策的意识形态核心，并在去年12月接待来自100多个国家的官员参加“民主峰会”。 “American democracy is the magnetic soft power of the United States,” Ms. Schake said. “We are different and better than the forces we are contesting against in the international order.” “美式民主正是美国软实力的优势所在，”舍克说道。“与我们在国际秩序中的竞争势力相比，我们就是不一样的，且是更为优越的。” 黄安伟(Edward Wong)在《纽约时报》担任外交与国际新闻记者超过20年，其中13年驻伊拉克和中国进行报道。他因关于伊拉克战争的报道获得了利文斯顿奖(Livingston Award)，也曾入选普利策奖候选名单。他是哈佛大学尼曼学者，并在普林斯顿大学担任费里斯新闻学教授。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@ewong。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道拜登与中东重建关系，意在遏制中俄2022年7月18日 俄乌战争分歧凸显中美关系深刻裂痕2022年7月13日 拜登在TikTok问题上犯错了吗？2022年6月22日 美加速重塑台湾防卫，试图震慑中国2022年5月26日 最受欢迎严歌苓指控张艺谋《一秒钟》未为其署名，电影界沉默以对 面对中俄威胁，拜登选择延续特朗普关键外交政策 中国问天实验舱升空，运载火箭残骸问题受关注 恒大134亿存款质押调查：CEO等多名高管被要求辞职 安倍遇刺案与统一教会：巨额捐款和长期争议 我曾经乐观看待中国的审查制度，我错了 滴滴超80亿元罚单背后，中国政府释放何种信号 一场以习近平为主角的中国领导人接班大戏 拜登新冠阳性，然后呢？ 俄罗斯寻求建立“正直轴心”对抗美国 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.