佩洛西访台计划加剧拜登政府对台海问题担忧U.S. Officials Grow More Concerned About Potential Action by China on Taiwan黄安伟, DAVID E. SANGER, AMY QIN2022年7月26日 中国官员在今年夏天强硬宣称，台湾海峡不是国际水域，这与美国和其他国家的观点相左。 ANN WANG/REUTERSWASHINGTON — The Biden administration has grown increasingly anxious this summer about China’s statements and actions regarding Taiwan, with some officials fearing that Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait, through which U.S. naval ships regularly pass. 华盛顿——今年夏天，拜登政府对中国在台湾问题上的声明和行动越来越焦虑，一些官员担心中国领导人可能会在未来一年半里试图对这个自治岛屿采取行动——可能会试图切断美国海军舰艇经常通过的台湾海峡的全部或部分通道。 The internal worries have sharpened in recent days, as the administration quietly works to try to dissuade House Speaker Nancy Pelosi from going through with a proposed visit to Taiwan next month, U.S. officials say. Ms. Pelosi, Democrat of California, would be the first speaker to visit Taiwan since 1997, and the Chinese government has repeatedly denounced her reported plans and threatened retaliation. 美国官员说，几天来，随着拜登政府悄悄试图劝说众议院议长南希·佩洛西取消下月访问台湾的计划，内部的担忧正在加剧。加州民主党人佩洛西将是1997年以来首位访问台湾的议长，中国政府多次谴责其被公开报道的计划，并威胁报复。 U.S. officials see a greater risk of conflict and miscalculation over Ms. Pelosi’s trip as President Xi Jinping of China and other Communist Party leaders prepare in the coming weeks for an important political meeting in which Mr. Xi is expected to extend his rule. 中国国家主席习近平和其他共产党领导人在未来数周准备召开一次重要的政治会议，预计届时习近平将可以延续其任期，因此美国官员认为佩洛西的出访存在更大的冲突和误判风险。 Chinese officials have strongly asserted this summer that no part of the Taiwan Strait can be considered international waters, contrary to the views of the United States and other nations. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said in June that “China has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait.” 今年夏天，中国官员用强烈措辞声称台湾海峡的任何部分都不能被视为国际水域，这与美国和其他国家的观点相反。中国外交部发言人今年6月表示，“中国对台湾海峡享有主权、主权权利和管辖权。” 广告 American officials do not know whether China plans to enforce that claim. But Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, who is close to President Biden and deals with the administration often on issues involving Taiwan, said “there is a lot of attention being paid” to what lessons China, its military and Mr. Xi might be learning from events in Ukraine. 美国官员不知道中国是否计划践行这一主张。但与拜登总统关系密切并常就涉台问题与本届政府接触的特拉华州参议员克里斯·库恩斯说，“人们非常关注”中国、其军队和习近平可能从乌克兰事件中吸取的教训。 “And one school of thought is that the lesson is ‘go early and go strong’ before there is time to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses,” Mr. Coons said in an interview on Sunday. “And we may be heading to an earlier confrontation — more a squeeze than an invasion — than we thought.” “有一种观点认为，教训是要趁台湾加强防御之前，‘早下手，下重手’，”库恩斯周日在接受采访时说。“我们可能会比想象中的更早地走向对抗，但更多的是一种挤压而不是入侵。” Chinese officials are aware that Biden administration officials, also applying lessons learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are trying to shape their weapons sales to Taiwan to turn the democratic island into what some call a “porcupine” — bristling with enough effective armaments and defense systems to deter Chinese leaders from trying to attack it. 中国官员知道拜登政府官员也从俄罗斯入侵乌克兰中吸取了教训，正试图调整对台军售，把这个民主的岛屿变成一些人所说的“豪猪”——拥有足够的有效武器和防御系统，以吓阻中国领导人的攻击企图。 U.S. officials say they are not aware of any specific piece of intelligence indicating the Chinese leadership has decided to move soon on Taiwan. But analysts inside and outside the U.S. government are studying to determine what might be the optimal time for China to take bolder actions to undermine Taiwan and the United States. 美国官员说，他们没有任何具体情报显示中国领导层决定在短时间内对台湾采取行动。但美国政府内外的分析人士正在研究，以确定中国采取更大胆行动破坏台湾和美国的最佳时机。 A central question is what top Chinese officials think of the evolving strengths of the Chinese military relative to those of Taiwan, the United States and regional U.S. allies that include Japan and South Korea. 一个核心问题是，中国高层官员如何看待中国军力相对于台湾、美国以及日韩等美国地区盟友的变化。 Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week that the Chinese military’s behavior in the Asia-Pacific region was “significantly more and noticeably more aggressive.” 参谋长联席会议主席马克·米莱上将上周表示，中国军队在亚太地区行为的“侵略性大幅地、明显地在增加”。 Chinese officials have denounced a steady stream of visits by senior U.S. officials to Taiwan, which Beijing sees as being akin to formal diplomatic engagement with the island. Ms. Pelosi had planned to visit in April but postponed after her aides said she had tested positive for the coronavirus. 中国官员谴责美国高级官员接连访问台湾，北京认为这类似于与台湾的正式外交接触。佩洛西原本计划在4月访台，但在她的助手说她的新冠病毒检测呈阳性后，访问推迟了。 拜登政府试图劝阻众议院议长佩洛西访台。 ANNA ROSE LAYDEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES“If the United States insists on going ahead, China will take firm and resolute measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the U.S. will be responsible for all of the serious consequences,” Zhao Lijian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a regularly scheduled media briefing on Monday. “如果美方一意孤行，中方必将采取坚定有力措施，捍卫国家主权和领土完整，由此造成的一切严重后果应由美方负责，”中国外交部发言人赵立坚在周一的媒体例会上说。 U.S. officials said the planning for Ms. Pelosi’s trip was moving ahead despite the rising furor over it. 美国官员说，尽管引发了越来越多的愤怒，佩洛西的访问计划仍在推进。 广告 Ms. Pelosi would be likely to fly to Taipei on a U.S. military aircraft, as is typical of such visits. Some analysts looking at Chinese denunciations of the proposed visit say that China could send aircraft to “escort” her plane and prevent it from landing. 佩洛西可能会乘坐美国军用飞机前往台北，这是此类访问的典型做法。一些分析人士研究了中国对这次拟议访问的谴责后说，中国可能会派飞机“伴随”她的飞机并阻止其降落。 This scenario is a legitimate concern, U.S. officials said, though it is improbable, and any such move would be seen by Washington as a serious escalation. The officials interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivities over diplomatic matters. 美国官员说，这是一种合理的担忧，尽管可能性不大，而且任何这样的举动都会被华盛顿视为严重的局势升级。由于外交事务的敏感性，接受采访的官员要求匿名。 Ms. Pelosi said last week that she does not publicly discuss travel plans, but that “it’s important for us to show support for Taiwan.” 佩洛西上周表示，她不会公开讨论这次计划，但“对我们来说，显示对台湾的支持很重要”。 During the Trump administration, a cabinet member and a top State Department official became the highest-ranking U.S. administration officials to visit Taiwan in a working capacity since 1979, when Washington severed diplomatic ties with Taipei in order to normalize relations with Beijing. Newt Gingrich was the last House speaker to visit Taiwan, 25 years ago. 特朗普政府时期，一名内阁成员和一名国务院高级官员成为自1979年以来以工作身份访问台湾的最高级别美国政府官员。华盛顿为了与北京实现关系正常化而在1979年与台北断绝了外交关系。25年前，纽特·金里奇成为最后一位访问台湾的众议院议长。 Asked by reporters about the proposed visit, Mr. Biden said last Wednesday that “the military thinks it’s not a good idea right now.” He also said he planned to speak with Mr. Xi, the Chinese leader, in the next 10 days. The two last spoke by video call in March, when Mr. Biden warned there would be “implications and consequences” if China gave material aid to Russia in its Ukraine offensive. 在被记者问及拟议中的访问时，拜登上周三表示，“军方认为目前这不是个好主意。”他还说，他计划在未来10天内与中国领导人习近平交谈。两人上一次通过视频通话是在3月，当时拜登警告说，如果中国对俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动提供物质援助，将会产生“影响和后果”。 Mr. Xi and other top Chinese officials and Communist Party elders are preparing for the party’s 20th congress in the fall, and they are expected to hold secret meetings in August in the seaside resort of Beidaihe ahead of the formal conclave. Analysts say Mr. Xi will almost certainly break with norms by seeking to serve a third term as president and extending his tenure as party secretary and chairman of the Central Military Commission. 习近平和其他中国高级官员以及共产党元老正在为秋季举行的中共第二十次代表大会做准备，预计他们将于8月在海滨度假胜地北戴河举行正式会议前的秘密会议。分析人士称，习近平几乎肯定会打破常规，寻求第三次担任国家主席，并延长其总书记和中央军事委员会主席的任期。 “The domestic political situation in China right now is extremely tense in the months before the party congress when Xi hopes to be approved for an unprecedented third term,” said Susan L. Shirk, a former senior State Department official and author of “Overreach,” an upcoming book on Chinese politics. “在距离党代会还有几个月的此刻，中国国内的政治局势非常紧张，习近平希望获得前所未有的第三个任期，”前国务院高级官员谢淑丽(Susan L. Shirk)说，她即将出版关于中国政治的书籍《过度》(Overreach)。 分析人士认为，中国国家主席习近平将在秋天谋求第三个任期，这在中国史无前例。 MARK R CRISTINO/EPA, VIA SHUTTERSTOCK“The risk is that the visit by Speaker Pelosi will be perceived, including by Xi himself, as a humiliation of his leadership and that he takes some rash action to show his strength,” she said. “What’s more, in view of his recent misjudgments that have harmed the country and sparked internal controversy — the draconian approach to Covid management, aligning with Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the crackdown on private business — we can’t count on his prudence in his military response to Pelosi’s trip. Better to postpone rather than risk war.” “风险在于，佩洛西议长的访问将被视为对习近平执政的羞辱，习近平本人也会这样认为，因此他可能采取一些轻率的行动来显示其实力，”她说。更重要的是，鉴于他最近的错误判断损害了国家并引发了内部争议——对新冠管理的严厉做法，在乌克兰战争中与俄罗斯保持一致，以及对私营企业的打击——我们不能指望他在军事上对佩洛西的访问做出谨慎的反应。与其冒战争的风险，不如推迟访问。” Pentagon and White House officials have been discussing the political environment and potential risks of the trip with Ms. Pelosi’s office. Officials say it is up to her to decide. 五角大楼和白宫官员一直在与佩洛西的办公室讨论这次访问的政治环境和潜在风险。有关官员说，最后要由她来决定。 广告 Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China in Beijing, said that Beijing would aim for a military response that would be seen as strong, but not so aggressive that it would provoke a larger conflict. 位于北京的中国人民大学的国际关系教授时殷弘表示，北京的目标是作出被认为强有力的军事反应，但不至于咄咄逼人，引发更大的冲突。 “I don’t think anyone can predict in any detail what China will do militarily,” Mr. Shi said. “我认为没有人能预测中国具体将在军事上采取什么行动，”时殷弘说。 Hu Xijin, former chief editor of Global Times, a nationalistic newspaper published by the Communist Party, wrote on Twitter that Chinese military warplanes might shadow Ms. Pelosi’s plane and cross into Taiwan-controlled airspace over the island. He also said China’s actions would amount to “a shocking military response.” 民族主义党报《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进在Twitter上写道，中国军机可能会伴随佩洛西的飞机，进入台湾控制的空域。他还表示，中国将做出“令人震惊的军事回应”。 Analysts say China could do something less provocative. It could, for example, send aircraft across the median line down the middle of the strait separating China and Taiwan, as it did in 2020 in response to a visit by Alex Azar, then the U.S. secretary of health and human services. 分析人士说，中国也可以做一些挑衅性不太强的事情。例如，中国可以派遣飞机越过台湾海峡中线，就像它在2020年回应时任美国卫生与公共服务部部长亚历克斯·阿扎的访问时那样。 Chinese fighter jets have crossed that line and flown into the island’s air defense identification zone with increasing frequency since 2020. 自2020年以来，中国战斗机越界进入台湾防空识别区的频率越来越高。 On Monday, Joanne Ou, a spokeswoman for Taiwan’s foreign ministry, said Taipei had not received any “definite” information about Ms. Pelosi’s visit. 周一，台湾外交部发言人欧江安表示，台北方面尚未收到有关佩洛西此行的任何“确切”信息。 广告 Officials and lawmakers from Taiwan’s two main political parties have welcomed any such visit by the speaker. 台湾两大主要政党的官员和议员都对佩洛西的访问表示欢迎。 “Speaker Pelosi has many admirers in Taiwan, and her visit would be a strong statement of American support of Taiwan democracy,” said Alexander Huang, the Washington representative of the Kuomintang, the opposition party. “佩洛西议长在台湾有许多仰慕者，她的访问将是美国支持台湾民主的有力声明，”反对党国民党驻华盛顿代表黄介正表示。 Many in Taiwan worry that if the trip is canceled, it would give Beijing the impression that its intimidation tactics work. 台湾有许多人担心，如果取消这次行程，会给北京留下这样一种印象，即它的恐吓策略奏效了。 金门烈屿海滩的旧防御工事。这里是台湾和中国最接近的地方。 AN RONG XU/GETTY IMAGESIn Washington, some Republican lawmakers have publicly urged Ms. Pelosi to go ahead with the trip as taking a stand against China. 在华盛顿，一些共和党议员公开敦促佩洛西访问，以此亮明对华立场。 Ivan Kanapathy, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a China director on the National Security Council under Presidents Trump and Biden, said canceling the trip could undermine Washington’s attempts to strengthen Taiwan’s relations with other democracies and efforts to boost its profile in international organizations and venues. 战略与国际研究中心高级研究员、曾在特朗普和拜登总统的国家安全委员会担任中国事务主任的伊万·卡纳帕西表示，取消此次访问可能会破坏华盛顿加强台湾与其他民主国家的关系，以及提升台湾在国际组织和国际场合形象的努力。 “A big part of why China worries about what the U.S. does is because we open up space for others,” Mr. Kanapathy said. “And that’s what China really worries about the most — more legitimacy for the Taiwanese government in the international community.” “中国之所以担心美国的行为，很大一部分原因是因为我们为其他国家开辟了空间，”卡纳帕西说。“而这是中国最担心的，也就是台湾政府在国际社会的合法性。” 广告 Some analysts say there are less risky ways to demonstrate support for Taiwan. Washington could send a top military officer, for example, or sign a bilateral trade agreement, which could help the island reduce its economic reliance on China. 一些分析人士指出，可以通过一些风险较小的方式来表明对台湾的支持。例如，华盛顿可以派遣一名高级军官，或者签署双边贸易协定，这可以帮助这座岛屿减少对中国的经济依赖。 U.S. military officials say a sea-and-air invasion of Taiwan would be difficult for the People’s Liberation Army to pull off today. If China did move earlier than expected against Taiwan, it could do so piecemeal, perhaps by first invoking their recent declaration on the status of the Taiwan Strait and conducting a limited operation to gauge Washington’s reaction. Another theory is that Beijing might try to seize an outer island close to China’s coast. 美国军方官员表示，中国人民解放军眼下要对台湾发起海空入侵仍然是很困难的。如果中国真的比预期更早对台湾采取行动，它可以采取循序渐进的方式，或许可以首先援引他们最近关于台湾海峡地位的声明，然后采取有限的行动来评估华盛顿的反应。另一种观点认为，北京可能会试图夺取靠近中国海岸的一个外岛。 American officials say it is unlikely that the Chinese government has decided what operation, if any, to carry out. But it is a subject being regularly simulated and war-gamed in Washington. 美国官员表示，中国政府不太可能已经决定要采取何种行动，甚至是否要采取行动。但这是华盛顿经常模拟和战棋推演的一个主题。 Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, said Friday at the Aspen Security Forum that Taiwan was learning from Ukraine. After years of buying expensive defense systems, he said, Taiwan was paying more attention to “citizen mobilizations” and “information warfare.” 美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文上周五在阿斯彭安全论坛上表示，台湾正在向乌克兰学习。他说，在多年购买昂贵的防御系统之后，台湾现在更加关注“公民动员”和“信息战”。 He also noted that supplying Taiwan would add further stress to American military hardware production. 他还指出，向台湾提供军事物资将进一步增加美国军事装备的生产压力。 “There are longer-term questions,” he said, “about ensuring that our defense industrial base, the American defense industrial base, and our allies’ defense industrial base can be put in a position to be able to sustain the kind of security assistance that we are going to need to keep supplying Ukraine as well as Taiwan as well as ourselves.” “还有一些长期的问题，”他说，“要确保我们的国防工业基础——美国的国防工业基础，以及我们盟友的国防工业基础能够维持我们需要的那种安全援助，以便保证向乌克兰、台湾和我们自己的军事供应。” Edward Wong自华盛顿、David E. Sanger自科罗拉多州阿斯彭、Amy Qin自台北报道。Catie Edmondson自华盛顿对本文有报道贡献。 黄安伟(Edward Wong)在《纽约时报》担任外交与国际新闻记者超过20年，其中13年驻伊拉克和中国进行报道。他因关于伊拉克战争的报道获得了利文斯顿奖(Livingston Award)，也曾入选普利策奖候选名单。他是哈佛大学尼曼学者，并在普林斯顿大学担任费里斯新闻学教授。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@ewong。 David E. Sanger是白宫和国家安全记者。他在时报任职38年，参与的三个团队获得了普利策奖，最近一次是在2017年获得国际报道奖。他最新出版的一本书是《完美武器：网络时代的战争、破坏和恐惧》(The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age) 。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。 Amy Qin是《纽约时报》中国记者，负责报道文化、政治和社会交叉议题。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@amyyqin。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道台湾准备好应对中国“武统”了吗？2022年6月14日 中国防长：若分裂台湾，中国不惜一战2022年6月13日 美国将与台湾展开贸易对话2022年6月2日 美加速重塑台湾防卫，试图震慑中国2022年5月26日 中国称在台湾周边海域空域组织军演2022年5月26日 最受欢迎严歌苓指控张艺谋《一秒钟》未为其署名，电影界沉默以对 中国在非洲开展新一轮外交活动 面对中俄威胁，拜登选择延续特朗普关键外交政策 中国问天实验舱升空，运载火箭残骸问题受关注 恒大134亿存款质押调查：CEO等多名高管被要求辞职 我曾经乐观看待中国的审查制度，我错了 佩洛西访台计划加剧拜登政府对台海问题担忧 安倍遇刺案与统一教会：巨额捐款和长期争议 犹他大学中国留学生遭前男友杀害，校方承认处理失当 滴滴超80亿元罚单背后，中国政府释放何种信号 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.