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2022年7月25日星期一
中国在非洲开展新一轮外交活动Where China Is Changing Its Diplomatic Ways (at Least a Little)JANE PERLEZ2022年7月26日
中国最高领导人习近平在去年11月的中非合作论坛上发表视频讲话。中国在非洲培植忠诚伙伴的行动是地缘政治大竞争的一部分。 HUANG JINGWEN/XINHUA, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESSWhirlwind visits to crisis-riven nations in Africa. A sleek training center for the continent’s up-and-coming politicians. The prospect of major debt forgiveness for a favorite African country.
对被危机撕裂的非洲国家进行旋风式访问。为非洲大陆有前途的政客们建造一座外表光鲜的培训中心。让一个特别受喜爱的非洲国家获得重大债务减免的可能性。
As relations with the United States and Europe plummet, China is starting a new wave of diplomacy in Africa, where it dominates trade with resource-rich nations and keeps friendly ties with mostly authoritarian leaders, unfettered by competition from the West.
随着与美国和欧洲的关系急转直下,中国开始了在非洲的新一轮外交努力,它主导着与非洲资源丰富国家的贸易,并与主要是威权主义的领导人保持着友好关系,不受来自西方的竞争约束。
China’s campaign to cultivate African allegiances is part of a great geopolitical competition, which has intensified since the start of the war in Ukraine. Already fiercely vying for loyalties in Asia, Beijing and Washington are now jockeying broadly for influence, with the United States, Europe and their democratic allies positioned against China, Russia, Iran and other autocracies. Heightening the competition, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, began a tour of Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo Sunday.
中国在非洲培植忠诚伙伴的行动是地缘政治大竞争的一部分,自从乌克兰战争爆发以来,这个行动已进一步加强。北京和华盛顿已在亚洲激烈地争夺忠诚伙伴,现又在更广泛地谋求影响力,将世界划分为美国、欧洲及其民主盟友与中国、俄罗斯、伊朗和其他独裁国家的对立阵营。俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫周日开始的对埃及、埃塞俄比亚、乌干达和刚果民主共和国的访问,让竞争更加激烈。
In Africa, China is adjusting its approach, more closely integrating financial and diplomatic efforts. It’s a recognition that just building new expressways, hydropower dams and skyscrapers — as China has tried to do with the Belt and Road Initiative — isn’t sufficient to secure relations.
在非洲,中国正在调整做法,将金融和外交努力更紧密地结合起来。中国已认识到,仅靠修建新的高速公路、水电大坝和摩天大厦(就像中国试图在“一带一路”倡议下所做的那样)不足以确保关系的稳定。作为修建铁路和公路的补充,今年春天,中国领导人习近平启动了一项新的全球安全倡议,这是一项将发展中国家团结在一起的广泛努力。
While the initiative across dozens of countries has helped to relegate the United States to a second-tier position in many places, the projects have also amplified tensions and added to a mounting debt crisis. To complement the rails and roads, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, started a new Global Security Initiative in the spring, a broad effort to bring developing countries together.
虽然涉及数十个国家的“一带一路”倡议已让美国在很多地方的地位沦为次要,但这个倡议支持的项目也放大了现有的矛盾,让不断加剧的债务危机进一步恶化。
A big lender to Africa, Beijing is seeking to protect current and future assets, including demand for the continent’s vast minerals. It also wants to make sure its first overseas naval base, in Djibouti at the entrance of the Red Sea, operates smoothly to ensure shipments of oil.
作为非洲的大债主,中国政府正在寻求保护目前的和未来的资产,包括对非洲大陆大量矿产的需求。它还希望确保位于红海入口吉布提的第一个海外海军基地顺利运转,以确保石油运输畅通。
中国在吉布提设立的首个海外海军基地的落成仪式,摄于2017年。这个位于红海入口处的基地具有战略意义。 AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESChina is reaching from Ethiopia, on the strategically important Horn of Africa, to Zambia, a heavily indebted nation with big copper mines, farther south. Beijing is offering to mediate in civil conflicts that are causing devastating famine, and most significantly, it is signaling a new strategy to resolve billions of dollars in overdue Chinese loans.
中国的影响正在从埃塞俄比亚延伸到更南部的赞比亚。前者地处具有重要战略意义的非洲之角,后者拥有大型铜矿,但负债累累。中国政府提出为非洲国家的国内冲突充当调解者,这些冲突正在引发毁灭性的饥荒,最重要的是,为解决非洲国家欠中国的数十亿美元逾期贷款问题,中国政府正在发出信号,可能会有一个新的战略。
“The United States has been saying it’s pivoting to Asia, so there’s the perception of an American retreat on the continent,” said Murithi Mutiga, project director for the Horn of Africa at International Crisis Group, a research group.
“美国一直在说,它正在转向亚洲,所以人们有一种美国正在从非洲大陆撤退的感觉,”研究机构国际危机组织的非洲之角项目主管穆里提·穆迪加说。
“The Chinese have been the main economic partner,” he added. “Now they are making a play on the geopolitical sphere as well.”
“中国一直是非洲的主要经济伙伴,”他补充说。“现在,他们也开始在地缘政治领域处心积虑。”
Beijing’s strategy is financially grounded. Trade between China and the continent topped $250 billion in 2021, compared with $64.33 billion for the United States. Chinese companies operating in Africa are investing so quickly in lithium mining that by 2030, China is expected to control 75 percent of the mineral, which is largely used in electric vehicles, said Henry Sanderson, executive editor of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
中国政府的战略是以财政为基础的。中国与非洲大陆的贸易额2021年已超过了2500亿美元,相比之下,美国与非洲的贸易额只有643.3亿美元。英国基准矿业情报的执行主编亨利·桑德森说,在非洲运营的中国企业在锂矿开采方面的投资非常迅速,预计到2030年,中国将控制非洲75%的锂矿。锂主要用于电动汽车。
Building off the economic projects, China is changing its diplomatic messaging. Rather than keeping a distance from thornier issues, it is engaging directly, even if it’s not always welcomed.
在经济项目的基础上,中国正在改变自己传递的外交信息。它不再对更棘手的问题避而远之,而是直接参与其中,即使中国并不总是受欢迎。
In January, the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, visited three African countries. His message: China wants to help solve their conflicts, many of them internal conflicts.
今年1月,中国外交部长王毅访问了三个非洲国家。他传递的信息是:中国想帮助这些国家解决冲突,其中许多是内部冲突。
中国外交部长王毅在今年1月防问三个非洲国家期间与肯尼亚外长奥马莫举行了会晤。 TONY KARUMBA/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESIn Ethiopia, the fighting between the central government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front has forced two million people from their homes and left parts of the country in famine.
埃塞俄比亚中央政府与提格雷人民解放阵线的战斗已迫使200万人背井离乡,令该国部分地区陷入饥荒。
China appointed Xue Bing as envoy to the Horn of Africa, a new post, in February. Mr. Xue, a former Chinese ambassador to Papua New Guinea, has flown to several countries, including Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and South Sudan.
今年2月,中国任命薛冰为外交部非洲之角事务特使,这是个新职位。薛冰曾任中国驻巴布亚新几内亚大使,他已飞往肯尼亚、埃塞俄比亚、厄立特里亚、苏丹和南苏丹等几个国家进行了访问。
In June, Mr. Xue convened the foreign ministers and deputy foreign ministers from five nations in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, boasting that China was taking an evenhanded approach to long-term civil conflicts.
今年6月,薛冰在埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴召集五个国家的外长和副外长举行了非洲之角和平会议,夸耀中国将在处理非洲国家的长期内部冲突上采取公平做法。
The Chinese official was the latest in a line of outside mediators trying to end the conflict or halt the humanitarian catastrophe in Ethiopia, often with little success.
中国官员正在成为最新的外部调停者,这些调停者都曾试图结束埃塞俄比亚的国内冲突,或停止冲突导致的人道主义灾难,但往往收效甚微。
At the first session in Addis Ababa, Mr. Xue said he would be happy to gather the countries again. “I myself am ready to provide mediation efforts,” he said. But no new date was set, and Ethiopia, which appeared to be Mr. Xue’s major target, did not take up his offer.
薛冰在亚的斯亚贝巴举行的第一届和平会议上说,他很乐意再次邀请各国与会。“我本人愿意提供调解努力,”他说,但没有给出新的会议日期,作为薛冰主要目标的埃塞俄比亚似乎也没有接受他的提议。
中国任命薛冰为新设立的非洲之角事务特使。ASSOCIATED PRESSChina has also promoted its authoritarian model, in contrast to the United States’ defense of democracies.
中国也在推广自己的威权主义模式,与美国捍卫民主制度的努力形成鲜明对比。
China is an old hand at teaching the virtues of the one-party state to African leaders, a constant theme when Mao Zedong was alive. Now, China is presenting an updated version at a new training school in Tanzania, started by the International Liaison Department, the powerful body within the Communist Party that promotes China’s ideology and influence abroad.
中国在向非洲领导人讲授一党专政的优点方面有着丰富的经验,那是毛泽东在世时的永恒主题。如今,中国正在坦桑尼亚的一所新培训学校里提供这个主题的升级版,这项工作是由中共中央对外联络部开启的,这是个权力很大的党内机构,专门负责向海外推广中国的意识形态和影响力。
Named after Julius Nyerere, the founding president of Tanzania and a stalwart supporter of Mao, the school accepted its first batch of future leaders in June, drawn from political parties in six southern African nations that have ruled without serious challenges since independence.
该培训中心以坦桑尼亚开国总统朱利叶斯·尼雷尔命名,尼雷尔曾是毛泽东的坚定支持者,该中心在今年6月接收了第一批学员,他们是来自六个南部非洲国家政党的未来领导人,这些国家的执政党自从独立以来都没有面临过严重的挑战。
At the opening, the head of the liaison department, Song Tao, addressed the young politicians by video, urging them to follow the governance model embodied by the Chinese Communist Party.
中联部部长宋涛在开班式上通过视频向这些中青年政客发表了讲话,敦促他们遵循中共所代表的治理模式。
Looming in the background of China’s diplomatic endeavors is debt. Some African nations that signed up to the Belt and Road Initiative are unable to keep up their payments, a crisis compounded by high inflation and depreciating currencies.
中国的外交努力之下也暗藏着债务问题的阴影。一些签署了“一带一路”倡议的非洲国家已无法继续还债,高通货胀胀率和本国货币贬值加剧了债务危机。
数千名被俘的埃塞俄比亚政府军士兵在提格雷人民解放阵线的看守下排队走在埃塞俄比亚默克莱的街头,摄于去年。内战使埃塞俄比亚部分地区陷入饥荒。 FINBARR O'REILLY FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESChina is Zambia’s biggest bilateral lender. Beijing has built roads, two airports and a major dam in Zambia, and the country urgently needs to restructure $6 billion of debt. The International Monetary Fund has told Zambia that unless the China debt issue is resolved, it will not provide a $1.3 billion bailout package.
中国是赞比亚最大的双边贷款者。它在赞比亚修建了多条公路、两个机场和一座大坝,赞比亚迫切需要重组其欠下的60亿美元债务。国际货币基金组织已告诉赞比亚,除非赞比亚设法解决其中国债务问题,否则将不为其提供13亿美元的救助计划。
China is working with Zambia’s new president, Hakainde Hichilema, who won after playing up corruption accusations against former President Edgar Lungu, long favored by China. In one of Mr. Hichilema’s first moves, he canceled some Chinese projects.
中国正在做赞比亚的新总统哈凯恩德·希奇莱马的工作。希奇莱马赢得选举靠的是渲染对赞比亚前总统埃德加·伦古的腐败指控,伦古一直备受中国方面青睐,而希奇莱马采取的第一批举措中就包括取消部分中国项目。
In December, the Biden administration invited the Zambian president to address its virtual Summit for Democracy, setting up a modicum of competition with Beijing.
去年12月,拜登政府邀请赞比亚总统在美国召开的视频民主峰会上发表讲话,算是与中国政府的一点竞争。
Then in May, Mr. Xi spoke by phone with Mr. Hichilema.
后来,习近平在今年5月与希奇莱马通了电话。
“The call reassured Zambia’s new president that the Chinese would come through with a debt relief offer,” said Deborah Brautigam, director of the SAIS China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
“通话是为了让赞比亚的新总统放心,中国将履行主动提出减免债务的诺言,”约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院国际关系研究所中非研究项目主任博黛蓉(Deborah Brautigam)说。
In the past, China has worked on its own — and secretively — with countries on debt relief. That’s in part, Ms. Brautigam said, because many Chinese government entities, as well as companies, hold the debt, complicating efforts to hash out agreements. In Zambia’s case, nearly 20 different Chinese entities are involved, she said.
过去,中国曾独自(并私下)与其他国家一起处理过债务减免问题。博黛蓉说,这部分是因为许多中国政府实体和公司持有这些债务,使达成债务减免协议的努力变得复杂。她说,以赞比亚为例,该国的债务问题涉及近20个不同的中国实体。
2018年,时任赞比亚总统的埃德加·伦古接见参加一个公路建设项目的中国工人。伦古的继任者在就任总统后不久就取消了部分中国项目。 DAWOOD SALIM/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGESWestern critiques of China’s lending are regularly rebuffed by Chinese officials as unfair and lacking in understanding.
西方对中国借钱给这些国家的批评经常被中国官员斥为不公平、不了解情况。
In Zambia’s case, this was particularly true, said Zhao Yongsheng, a finance expert at the University of International Business and Economics, a Chinese research institute. Mr. Zhao worked on an aid project nearly 40 years ago in Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo.
对外经济贸易大学的金融专家赵永升说, 就赞比亚的情况而言,情况尤其如此。将近40年前,赵先生曾为中国援助扎伊尔(现在的刚果民主共和国)的项目工作过。
Beijing had deferred Zambia’s debt payments on about $1 billion in loans over the last two years, giving special consideration for the pandemic, Mr. Zhao said.
赵永升说,出于对新冠病毒大流行的特殊考虑,中国政府已在过去两年里推迟了赞比亚欠下的约10亿美元贷款的偿还。
“The Chinese are actually more able to understand the difficulties and problems faced by African countries such as Zambia, before and now, than European countries and the United States,” he said.
“中国人其实比欧美国家的人更能理解非洲国家例如赞比亚之前和目前面临的困境和难题,”他说。
Last month, under pressure from multilateral financial institutions, China participated for the first time in a meeting with the Paris Club of creditor nations to start resolving Zambia’s debt issue. The solution is expected to either extend the period of payment for Zambia or reduce the value of the loan for China.
上个月,在多边金融机构的压力下,中国首次参加了由债权国组成的巴黎俱乐部的会议,开始着手解决赞比亚的债务问题。预计将推出的解决方案或延长赞比亚所欠债务的付款期限,或减少赞比亚欠中国贷款的数额。
赞比亚钦戈拉的一座铜矿,摄于2015年。产铜大国赞比亚是对中国负债最重的国家之一。 JOAO SILVA/THE NEW YORK TIMESIn a move aimed at mediating the squabbles among the myriad Chinese lenders, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is now involved in the process. A new Chinese ambassador in Zambia, Du Xiaohui, is promoting a swift resolution, Ms. Brautigam said.
为了调停众多中国债券人之间的争吵,中国外交部现已介入了解决债务问题的过程。博黛蓉说,中国新任驻赞比亚大使杜晓辉正在推动一个迅速解决方案。
If the Zambia debt crisis is handled more openly, China could burnish its image and African countries with huge loans could benefit, said Guyude Moore, a former minister of public works in Liberia and now an analyst at the Center for Global Development in Washington. It could “usher in a period of normalization of debt.”
曾任利比里亚公共工程部长、现任华盛顿全球发展中心分析师的古尤德·摩尔说,如果能更公开地处理赞比亚的债务危机的话,中国将得以提升自己的形象,欠下巨额债务的非洲国家也可能从中受益。这会“迎来一个债务关系正常化的时期”。
In the face of looming debt crises across Africa, he added, “this is a big deal.”
在非洲各地面临迫在眉睫的债务危机时,“这是一件大事,”他补充说。
Li You对本文有研究贡献。
Jane Perlez曾任《纽约时报》北京分社社长,并在肯尼亚、波兰、奥地利、印度尼西亚和巴基斯坦分社担任过社长。她曾参与的报道团队凭借在巴基斯坦和阿富汗的报道获得2009年普利策奖。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@JanePerlez。
翻译:纽约时报中文网
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