观点日本不该让安倍的修宪“遗愿”变成现实Shinzo Abe Failed to Rearm Japan. Let’s Keep It That Way.中野晃一2022年7月21日 KOICHI KAMOSHIDA/GETTY IMAGESJapan had barely begun processing the shock of the former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s assassination by a gunman on July 8 before attention turned to whether his quest to remilitarize Japan, including the revision of its pacifist Constitution, would survive him. 随着日本开始应对前首相安倍晋三于7月8日遇刺一事带来冲击，人们的注意力转向了他生前追求的目标——让日本再次军事化（包括修改和平宪法）是否会继续下去的问题。 Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, Mr. Abe was a towering presence at home and an influential statesman abroad. He advocated a more globally engaged Japan, was a driving force in the Quad alliance between the United States, Australia, India and Japan and is credited by some with initiating the very idea of the wider Indo-Pacific region. 安倍晋三是日本任期最长的首相，在国内具有举足轻重的地位，在国外也是一名有影响力的政治家。他主张日本应该更多地参与全球事务，对美国、澳大利亚、印度和日本形成四国联盟起了推动作用，一些人甚至把提出更广泛的印太地区构想的功劳归于他。 He also envisioned a more militarily robust Japan, centered on his unfulfilled dream of revising its postwar Constitution, which prohibits his country from maintaining an offensive armed forces capability. His supporters have vowed to make these dreams — driven largely by fear of a more powerful China — a reality. 安倍晋三也曾设想一个军事上更强大的日本，这个设想的核心是他未能实现的修改战后宪法的梦想，该宪法禁止日本保持一支具有进攻能力的武装力量。他的支持者已郑重宣布，要让这些梦想成为现实（主要是出于害怕一个更强大的中国）。 Yet it’s time for Japan to bid farewell not only to Mr. Abe but also to his nationalist rearmament agenda. Japan’s political and economic resources should be focused not on revising the Constitution and increasing defense spending but on maintaining peace through diplomacy and shoring up an economy left shaky by years of Mr. Abe’s trickle-down policies. 但现在不仅是日本告别安倍晋三的时候了，也是告别他的民族主义重整军备议程的时候了。日本的政治和经济资源不应该集中在修改宪法和增加国防开支上，而应该集中在通过外交手段维护和平上，用在支撑因安倍晋三多年实行的“涓滴”政策而摇摇欲坠的经济上。 Critically, at a time when the United States is focused on confronting China, a humbler, more pacifist Japan could have an important role to play by re-engaging with Beijing to help decrease tensions between China and the United States. 极为重要的是，在美国专注于对抗中国之际，一个更谦逊、更和平的日本可以通过与北京重新接触，来起到帮助缓解中美紧张关系的重要作用。 Mr. Abe was shot while campaigning on behalf of his Liberal Democratic Party for parliamentary elections that were to be held just two days later. He leaves behind a personal legacy far more controversial and checkered than is warranted by the simplistic, fawning tributes that followed his demise. 在日本国会选举的两天前，安倍晋三在为他所在的自民党候选人助选时被枪杀。他个人留下的政治遗产失败与成功并存，远比人们在他死后发表的那些过于简单、过于奉承的颂词具有争议性。 Detractors at home considered Mr. Abe an arrogant bully who silenced critics. Constitutional, parliamentary and media checks and balances were undermined during his tenure, and he notoriously made false statements to Parliament 118 times over a political scandal. 安倍晋三在日本国内的批评者认为，他为人傲慢、横行霸道，容不下批评。在他的任期内，宪法、国会和媒体的制衡遭到削弱，而且他因一宗政治丑闻在国会做了118次虚假陈述而名声狼藉。 He unnecessarily offended neighbors like South Korea and China — where anger still seethes over Japan’s brutal wartime aggression — with his historical revisionism. His December 2013 visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, which honors Japanese war dead, including war criminals from the World War II era, even invited a rare rebuke from the United States. He also backed school textbooks that gloss over Japan’s World War II barbarity, including the forcing of thousands of women around Asia to serve as sex slaves for Japanese troops. 安倍晋三用他的历史修正主义不必要地冒犯了韩国和中国等邻国，这些国家仍对日本战时的残酷侵略行径感到愤怒。2013年12月，安倍参拜东京靖国神社，这甚至遭到了美国的罕见指责。靖国神社供奉着日本的战争亡灵，包括第二次世界大战期间的战犯。他还支持粉饰日本“二战”暴行（包括在亚洲各地强迫数千名女姓成为军队“慰安妇”）的教科书。 But few aspects of Mr. Abe’s career threatened to alter Japan’s national character and role in the region as much as his crusade against Article 9, which renounces war as a means of solving international disputes and limits Japan’s military to a self-defense role. Mr. Abe unnerved millions of Japanese who see no reason to depart from a commitment to peace that kept Japan out of any direct involvement in war since 1945, allowing it to focus on becoming an economic power. 但在安倍晋三政治生涯的方方面面中，长期坚定不移地反对宪法第九条是最有可能改变日本的国家性格及地区角色的追求。该条款放弃把战争作为解决国际争端的手段，并将日本军队的作用限制为自卫。安倍晋三让数百万认为没有理由背离和平承诺的日本人不安，这个和平承诺让日本自1945年起避免直接卷入任何战争，让日本把注意力集中在成为一个经济强国上。 Mr. Abe failed to change the article despite two stints in power, from 2006 to ’07 and from 2012 to ’20. He settled instead for a reinterpretation that allows Japan to help close allies militarily under certain conditions but has been criticized as unconstitutional. 尽管安倍晋三曾在2006至2007年和2012至2000年两次执政，但始终未能修改第九条。他只好用重新解释第九条的办法，允许日本在某些情况下为亲密盟友提供军事上的帮助，但这种诠释一直被批评为违宪。 Japan looks no closer to revising Article 9 today, especially with the L.D.P.’s right wing now deprived of its uncontested standard-bearer. A commitment to peace runs deep in a country that was taken to war by a military government, causing huge suffering in Asia and ending in Japan’s total defeat and the distinction of being the only country attacked with nuclear weapons. 今天，日本看来并没有与修改宪法第九条变得更近，尤其是在自民党右翼失去了其无可争议的旗手之后。对和平的承诺在日本深入人心，这个国家曾被军政府带入战争，给亚洲带来了巨大的痛苦，最终的结果是日本的彻底失败，以及日本成为唯一一个受过核武器打击的国家。 An opinion survey in late June by the broadcaster NHK found that only 5 percent of respondents named revising the Constitution as their top electoral priority, while 43 percent identified the economy. Public opinion on revising Article 9 is split, with 50 percent in favor and 48 percent against, according to a poll in May, and 70 percent said momentum for a revision was not increasing. 日本放送协会今年6月下旬进行的一项民意调查发现，只有5%的受访者将修宪列为他们投票时最重视的议题，而43%的人则认为是经济。据今年5月的一项民意调查，公众对修改宪法第九条意见不一，50%的人支持，48%的人反对，70%的人认为修宪的势头没有出现增长。 The long-dominant L.D.P. and its allies secured the two-thirds majority in Parliament’s upper house required to initiate a national referendum on amending the Constitution. But that was widely expected even before Mr. Abe’s murder, and the ruling coalition’s gains stemmed in part from divisions within the opposition rather than a pro-Abe groundswell. Even Mr. Abe never seriously pushed for a referendum because of the political risks, despite enjoying a two-thirds majority for some of his years in power. 长期占据主导地位的自民党及其盟友在参议院赢得了三分之二的多数席位，满足了修宪问题发起全民公投的必要条件。但早在安倍晋三被刺之前，人们就普遍预料到了这会发生，在一定程度上，执政联盟之所以赢得更多席位是因为反对派内部出现了分歧，而不是亲安倍情绪高涨。就连安倍晋三本人出于政治风险的考虑，也从未认真推动过修宪公投，尽管在他执政期间，相关势力有数年时间在国会拥有三分之二多数席位。 Attention now turns to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, but it’s a measure of just how smothering Mr. Abe’s presence was — he forbade open dissent among party leaders — that the Japanese don’t really know what to expect from Mr. Kishida, who represents L.D.P. moderates who have opposed constitutional revision. After the election, Mr. Kishida promised greater defense spending and pledged renewed attention on Article 9 but gave no hint that this was more than a courteous nod to the departed Mr. Abe. 人们的注意力现在转向了岸田文雄首相，但这恰恰说明了安倍晋三生前的压抑气氛，他曾禁止党内领导人公开发表不同意见，因此，对于反对修宪的自民党温和派代表人物岸田文雄，日本人并不清楚应该有怎样的期待。国会选举结束后，岸田文雄承诺增加国防开支，并承诺重新注意宪法第九条，但这是否只是对已故的安倍晋三礼貌性致意，岸田文雄没有给出任何暗示。 But there is no doubt that Mr. Kishida’s hand is strengthened. Mr. Abe left no clear right-wing successor, and his death throws the faction into disarray, allowing Mr. Kishida an opportunity to assert more control over the national agenda. 但毫无疑问的是，岸田文雄的作用得到了加强。安倍晋三没有留下明确的右翼继任者，他的去世让自民党右翼陷入混乱，使岸田文雄得到了对国家议程施加更多控制的机会。 This should include building support for a departure from Abenomics, policies launched during Mr. Abe’s second spell in power that were intended to shake off two decades of economic stagnation through fiscal and monetary stimulus, ramped-up government spending and deregulatory reforms. Corporate profits rose, but public debt accumulated, bold structural reforms were never seriously pursued, and wages remained stagnant. Then the pandemic hit. The yen is weakening, and inflation is on the rise — and so are coronavirus infections. 这应该包括为抛弃安倍经济学争取更多的支持。安倍晋三在第二次执政期间推出了这个经济纲领，目的是通过财政和货币刺激、加大政府支出和放松监管的改革来摆脱长达20年的经济停滞。虽然企业的利润上升了，但公共债务增大，而且从未认真推进过大胆的结构性改革，工资水平依然停滞不前。后来发生了新冠病毒大流行。日元一直走弱，通货膨胀正在上升，新冠病毒感染人数也在上升。 Mr. Kishida has called for prioritizing wage increases and narrowing the rich-poor gap. This will require more social security funding, which will inevitably clash with the doubling of defense spending in the next five years that Mr. Abe sought. With the economy a greater concern to the public than security issues, Mr. Kishida can ill afford to waste precious political capital on revising Article 9. 岸田文雄已提出把提高工资和缩小贫富差距作为首要任务。这将需要为社会保障提供更多资金，将不可避免地与安倍晋三追求的在未来五年将国防开支翻一番的目标发生冲突。由于经济问题比安全问题更受公众关注，岸田文雄不能把宝贵的政治资本浪费在修改宪法第九条上。 On dealing with China, Mr. Kishida revealed little of his own diplomatic vision when he served as a foreign minister of Mr. Abe’s, but his faction has traditionally engaged with China, and he may now be better positioned to pursue a policy more focused on dialogue with Beijing. 在与中国打交道的问题上，岸田文雄在安倍晋三手下担任外务大臣时几乎没有透露过自己的外交愿景，但他所在的派系有与中国打交道的传统，他现在可能更有条件来侧重跟北京对话的政策。 Mr. Abe’s tragic demise offers his successors a chance to emerge from his shadow and turn the page on his policies. 安倍晋三的悲剧性结局为他的继任者提供了一个摆脱其阴影、开启自己政策新篇章的机会。 Stripping away the safeguards of Article 9 and remilitarizing Japan would only further inflame tensions with China and risk an arms race with potentially devastating consequences for Japan and the region. On the contrary, a reaffirmed commitment to peace would allow domestic resources to be focused on the economy and open the door for better relations with Japan’s neighbors founded on peace through diplomacy. 取消宪法第九条的保障措施，让日本重新军事化，只会进一步加剧与中国的紧张关系，并有可能引发军备竞赛，这可能会给日本和东亚地区带来毁灭性的后果。与此相反，重申对和平的承诺，会把国内的资源集中在经济发展上，并在通过外交手段实现和平的基础上，为改善与日本邻国的关系打开大门。 It’s time to beat Mr. Abe’s swords into plowshares. 是化安倍晋三的干戈为玉帛的时候了。 Koichi Nakano(@knakano1970)是东京上智大学一名政治学者，研究近几十年日本政治出现的右倾现象。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。 相关报道后安倍时代，日本将走向何方？2022年7月20日 安倍遇刺事件是日本控枪政策的成功吗2022年7月11日 安倍遇刺：任期最长首相的政治遗产2022年7月8日 最受欢迎“九龙皇帝”涂鸦“重见天日”，在香港引发新共鸣 河南村镇银行丑闻打击中国当局公信力 中国多地再度进入封锁，引发对更多经济问题的担忧 为什么移民的后代在美国能够翻越经济阶梯 面对西方孤立与遏制，普京在伊朗找到新盟友 普京为何坚信他会赢 在美国小城，一座中资玉米加工厂引发的问题与忧虑 后安倍时代，岸田文雄将带领日本走向何方？ 广州防疫部门为撬锁破门排查密接道歉 一场以习近平为主角的中国领导人接班大戏 国际 中国 商业与经济 镜头 科技 科学 健康 教育 文化 风尚 旅游 房地产 观点与评论 免费下载 纽约时报中文网 iOS 和 Android App 点击下载iOS App点击下载Android App点击下载Android APK © 2022 The New York Times Company.